Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>YFO has played a relatively upfront game for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a> - badly at first, then better. </li>
<li>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takashimaya-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:370:1" rel="noopener">Takashimaya (8233 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/h2o-retailing-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17562:1" rel="noopener">H2O (8242 JP)</a> now more secure and cross-shareholdings more problematic, they will sell off their equity in each other but continue to work on joint projects.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/skyworth-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10941:1" rel="noopener">Skyworth Group Limited (751 HK)</a>'s latest buyback offers a minimum proration of 7.8%, although applying the last buyback two years ago, it's likely to be 13%+.</li>
</ul>


YFO has played a relatively upfront game for Toyo Construction (1890 JP) - badly at first, then better. 
With Takashimaya (8233 JP) and H2O (8242 JP) now more secure and cross-shareholdings more problematic, they will sell off their equity in each other but continue to work on joint projects.

Skyworth Group Limited (751 HK)'s latest buyback offers a minimum proration of 7.8%, although applying the last buyback two years ago, it's likely to be 13%+.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyo, Takashimaya/H2O, Skyworth, Shandong Fengxiang, O2Micro

<ul>
<li>Stay long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-data-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11232:1" rel="noopener">NTT Data Corp (9613 JP)</a> through mid-January. Then sell. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a> may drift lower as the street crunches numbers, in tandem with a vacuum of news as Brookfield undertakes its due diligence.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a> is now upset that YFO has decided to release the reason why Toyo management didn't.</li>
</ul>


Stay long NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) through mid-January. Then sell. 

Origin Energy (ORG AU) may drift lower as the street crunches numbers, in tandem with a vacuum of news as Brookfield undertakes its due diligence.

Toyo Construction (1890 JP) is now upset that YFO has decided to release the reason why Toyo management didn't.


Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT Data, Origin Energy, Toyo Construction, Haidilao, Toshiba

<ul>
<li>The data in this insight is collated from the "shareholding disclosure" link on the HKEx website. </li>
<li>Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase - or decrease - in the shareholding by directors. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute. </li>
<li>These insights also flag those companies where shares have been pledged, both recently and ongoing.</li>
</ul>


The data in this insight is collated from the "shareholding disclosure" link on the HKEx website. 
Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase - or decrease - in the shareholding by directors. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute. 
These insights also flag those companies where shares have been pledged, both recently and ongoing.


Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings - 25th August 2022

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Where so many of us are focused on the impact of China slowdown on its banks, it is worth highlighting the risks to Hong Kong’s banks. But what we are focused on here is their domestic lending, not the stuff booked locally but for use in China. For most, the perception is that Hong Kong banks have little risk due to a strong emphasis on mortgage lending, but we are not convinced this is holding up, and we believe it will worsen.  Of course, the new marginally higher interest costs in Hong Kong…

Where so many of us are focused on the impact of China slowdown on its banks, it is worth highlighting the risks to Hong Kong’s banks. But what we are focused on here is their domestic lending, not the stuff booked locally but for use in China. For most, the perception is that Hong Kong banks have little risk due to a strong emphasis on mortgage lending, but we are not convinced this is holding up, and we believe it will worsen.  Of course, the new marginally higher interest costs in Hong Kong…

Domestic NPLs in Hong Kong Can Surprise – Not Just Those in Neighboring China

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

I talked about 3 structural bears for Hong Kong's tourism <a href="http://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hong-kong-s-future-3-structural-bears-for-retailer-tourism" target="_blank">earlier this year</a> in February:1. How Hong Kong is losing its attractiveness as tourist spot as China develops. 2. How loosening Visa requirement by other countries draws tourist crowds away from Hong Kong. 3. How Hong Kong is losing its shopping destination halo for mainland Chinese.I re-iterate my bearish view on Hong Kong's tourism and provide updates from touristm data reported around the world which paints a clear picture of where the herd of Chinese tourist are heading.Our data shows that Japan and Thailand are the most sought after tourist destination this year, with arrivals from China growing by 117% and 107% respectively YTD. We also provide interesting media references of Chinese shopping in Japan just two days into one-week long Chinese National Day holiday.

I talked about 3 structural bears for Hong Kong's tourism earlier this year in February:1. How Hong Kong is losing its attractiveness as tourist spot as China develops. 2. How loosening Visa requirement by other countries draws tourist crowds away from Hong Kong. 3. How Hong Kong is losing its shopping destination halo for mainland Chinese.I re-iterate my bearish view on Hong Kong's tourism and provide updates from touristm data reported around the world which paints a clear picture of where the herd of Chinese tourist are heading.Our data shows that Japan and Thailand are the most sought after tourist destination this year, with arrivals from China growing by 117% and 107% respectively YTD. We also provide interesting media references of Chinese shopping in Japan just two days into one-week long Chinese National Day holiday.  

(QUICK UPDATE) Tracking the herd of Chinese tourist: Japan and Thailand top the list

Hong Kong

China Fortune Financial Group Ltd. is an investment holding group. The Group's principal activities include the provision of brokerage services for securities, futures and insurance, margin financing, wealth management and migration consulting services, corporate finance advisory services and financial communication services.

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China Fortune Financial (290 HK)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyo, Takashimaya/H2O, Skyworth, Shandong Fengxiang, O2Micro

The long weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT Data, Origin Energy, Toyo Construction, Haidilao, Toshiba

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings - 25th August 2022

The data in this insight is collated from the "shareholding disclosure" link on the HKEx website. These insights also flag those companies where...

David Blennerhassett

Domestic NPLs in Hong Kong Can Surprise – Not Just Those in Neighboring China

Where so many of us are focused on the impact of China slowdown on its banks, it is worth highlighting the risks to Hong Kong’s banks. But what we...

Daniel Tabbush

(QUICK UPDATE) Tracking the herd of Chinese tourist: Japan and Thailand top the list

I talked about 3 structural bears for Hong Kong's tourism earlier this year in February:1. How Hong Kong is losing its attractiveness as tourist...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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