Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Chinese Estates, NIPPO Corp, Hopson/Evergrande, PICC

Chief Economist

Diana Choyleva

Enodo Economics

Enodo Economics is an independent macroeconomic forecasting company that untangles complexity, challenges the consensus, and makes sense of the future. Our focus is on China – one of the most misunderstood economies in the world, but one of the most important to figure out.  Enodo’s chief economist, Diana Choyleva, has been analysing China for almost 20 years, while Enodo’s team boasts a combined 140 years’ experience covering China’s economy, politics and markets. 

Macroeconomics

<h2>China News That Matters</h2><ul>
<li>Sobering news from Rice Wine Town to London Town</li>
<li>Smother you with love and live fire</li>
<li>Zurich proves less frosty than Alaska </li>
<li>Investigate suspects, nullify all threats</li>
</ul><div class="content-remarks"><ul style="list-style-type: none;"><li><div>In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.</div></li></ul></div>

China News That Matters
Sobering news from Rice Wine Town to London Town
Smother you with love and live fire
Zurich proves less frosty than Alaska 
Investigate suspects, nullify all threats
In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<p>In this insight, we provide a trading strategy on the upcoming KOSDAQ150 rebalance announcement in November. In the tables below, we provided a list of 10 stocks that could get included and 10 stocks that could get excluded in the next round of KOSDAQ150 rebalance.</p><p>In the past one month, the 10 stocks for inclusion are down 5.7% on average, outperforming KOSDAQ which is down 12.4% in this period. In the past one month, the 10 stocks for exclusion are down 21.5% on average, underperforming KOSDAQ in the same period. </p><p>The strategy here is to buy a basket of the stocks which could get included in the KOSDAQ150 index rebalance and combine this with bottom-up due diligence of each of these 10 companies to better understand their fundamentals. The same holds true for the companies that could potentially be excluded. The strategy would be to increase the weights of companies that could potentially get included in the KOSDAQ150 rebalance in the upcoming November announcement and reduce the weights of the bottom 5-7% market cap companies in KOSDAQ150 index. </p>

In this insight, we provide a trading strategy on the upcoming KOSDAQ150 rebalance announcement in November. In the tables below, we provided a list of 10 stocks that could get included and 10 stocks that could get excluded in the next round of KOSDAQ150 rebalance.In the past one month, the 10 stocks for inclusion are down 5.7% on average, outperforming KOSDAQ which is down 12.4% in this period. In the past one month, the 10 stocks for exclusion are down 21.5% on average, underperforming KOSDAQ in the same period. The strategy here is to buy a basket of the stocks which could get included in the KOSDAQ150 index rebalance and combine this with bottom-up due diligence of each of these 10 companies to better understand their fundamentals. The same holds true for the companies that could potentially be excluded. The strategy would be to increase the weights of companies that could potentially get included in the KOSDAQ150 rebalance in the upcoming November announcement and reduce the weights of the bottom 5-7% market cap companies in KOSDAQ150 index. 

A Trading Strategy for the Upcoming KOSDAQ150 Rebalance in December

Head of Content, Data & Research, Helixtap

Arusha Das

Head of Content, Data & Research

Global Commodities Alternative Data and Insights

Helixtap

Helixtap collects, processes and distributes proprietary data, analyses and forecasts for the rubber, latex and automotive markets

Commodities

<ul><li>The crackdown on power consumption coupled with the crisis of Evergrande Group looms large over the demand for natural rubber in China as the industrial manufacturing sector of the country faces a setback. With the ongoing Evergrande crisis and Beijing’s unprecedented curbs on the property sector, the power supply crisis has affected Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong impacting the Chinese industrial manufacturing sector.This has jeopardized the natural rubber markets, given China accounts for around 40% of the global demand.</li><li>According to various industry sources, there is a lot of anxiousness around the revival of demand in China. The companies operating in the manufacturing industry are hit the hardest, so China must rebound as quickly as possible for the rubber markets to revive. “The power shortage is impacting the factories in China, and no one knows how long it would take to reach normalcy.</li><li>No one can predict the future at the moment,” said a market source, adding the debt issue due to Evergrande has also wavered the market confidence. According to some industry reports, a prolonged power crisis would be a significant setback for the rubber market.</li></ul>

The crackdown on power consumption coupled with the crisis of Evergrande Group looms large over the demand for natural rubber in China as the industrial manufacturing sector of the country faces a setback. With the ongoing Evergrande crisis and Beijing’s unprecedented curbs on the property sector, the power supply crisis has affected Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong impacting the Chinese industrial manufacturing sector.This has jeopardized the natural rubber markets, given China accounts for around 40% of the global demand.According to various industry sources, there is a lot of anxiousness around the revival of demand in China. The companies operating in the manufacturing industry are hit the hardest, so China must rebound as quickly as possible for the rubber markets to revive. “The power shortage is impacting the factories in China, and no one knows how long it would take to reach normalcy.No one can predict the future at the moment,” said a market source, adding the debt issue due to Evergrande has also wavered the market confidence. According to some industry reports, a prolonged power crisis would be a significant setback for the rubber market.

Rubber Industry Grapples With Aftershock Of China’s Crackdown

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinese-estates-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20954:1" rel="noopener">Chinese Estates Holdings (127 HK)</a> is principally engaged in property investment and development, building and property management, brokerage, securities investment, money lending and cosmetics distribution and trading. After market close on Wednesday, it announced a privatisation offer by way of a scheme of arrangement from an entity controlled by Ms HW Chan, the CEO. The offeror will offer HK$4.00 in cash for each scheme share. The bid represents a premium of 83.5% over the closing price of HK$2.18 per share on the last full trading date (28 September prior to the trading halt). </p><p>Chinese Estates’ shares are down 40% since 30 June largely due to the fallout from its substantial shareholding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-evergrande-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande (3333 HK)</a>. Chinese Estates built up a 6.48% shareholding in Evergrande in 2017 and 2018 at an eye-watering cost of HK$13,596.0 million ($1.7 billion) and an average cost of HK$15.8 per share. Due to the precipitous decline in Evergrande share price (HK$2.95 last close prior to a trading halt), since 30 August, Chinese Estates has reduced its shareholding in Evergrande to 4.39% of outstanding shares for total cash proceeds of HK$689.2 million ($89 million). If Chinese Estates disposes of its entire shareholding, it could result in a realised loss in other comprehensive income of -HK$10,408.3 million (-$1.3 billion) in 2021. Unabashedly, the CEO justifies the privatisation based on the “<em>material adverse change to the financial position of the Group</em>” due to this material loss. </p><p>The key condition precedents are the headcount test along with the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders and &lt;10% rejection by all disinterested shareholders. As disinterested scheme shareholders represent 408.4 million shares or 21.41% of shares outstanding, the 10% blocking stake is 40.8 million shares or 2.14% of shares outstanding. No shareholder holds a blocking stake. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Chinese Estates predicament is self-inflicted and due to Joseph Lau’s (HW Chan’s husband), close relationship (said to be poker pals) with Hui Ka Yan, Evergrande’s Chairman. The Lau family which controls Chinese Estates is taking advantage of the fallout from their ill-advised investment in Evergrande to privatise Chinese Estates at the cost of minority investors. While we think the offer price is unattractive, the shareholding structure suggests that that privatisation bid will be likely successful. </p></div>

Chinese Estates Holdings (127 HK) is principally engaged in property investment and development, building and property management, brokerage, securities investment, money lending and cosmetics distribution and trading. After market close on Wednesday, it announced a privatisation offer by way of a scheme of arrangement from an entity controlled by Ms HW Chan, the CEO. The offeror will offer HK$4.00 in cash for each scheme share. The bid represents a premium of 83.5% over the closing price of HK$2.18 per share on the last full trading date (28 September prior to the trading halt). Chinese Estates’ shares are down 40% since 30 June largely due to the fallout from its substantial shareholding in Evergrande (3333 HK). Chinese Estates built up a 6.48% shareholding in Evergrande in 2017 and 2018 at an eye-watering cost of HK$13,596.0 million ($1.7 billion) and an average cost of HK$15.8 per share. Due to the precipitous decline in Evergrande share price (HK$2.95 last close prior to a trading halt), since 30 August, Chinese Estates has reduced its shareholding in Evergrande to 4.39% of outstanding shares for total cash proceeds of HK$689.2 million ($89 million). If Chinese Estates disposes of its entire shareholding, it could result in a realised loss in other comprehensive income of -HK$10,408.3 million (-$1.3 billion) in 2021. Unabashedly, the CEO justifies the privatisation based on the “material adverse change to the financial position of the Group” due to this material loss. The key condition precedents are the headcount test along with the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders and &lt;10% rejection by all disinterested shareholders. As disinterested scheme shareholders represent 408.4 million shares or 21.41% of shares outstanding, the 10% blocking stake is 40.8 million shares or 2.14% of shares outstanding. No shareholder holds a blocking stake. Chinese Estates predicament is self-inflicted and due to Joseph Lau’s (HW Chan’s husband), close relationship (said to be poker pals) with Hui Ka Yan, Evergrande’s Chairman. The Lau family which controls Chinese Estates is taking advantage of the fallout from their ill-advised investment in Evergrande to privatise Chinese Estates at the cost of minority investors. While we think the offer price is unattractive, the shareholding structure suggests that that privatisation bid will be likely successful. 

Chinese Estates’ Privatisation Bid from the Lau Family

China

China Evergrande Group is an integrated residential property developer. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development, investment, management, finance, internet, health, culture, and tourism markets.

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Evergrande (3333 HK)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Chinese Estates, NIPPO Corp, Hopson/Evergrande, PICC

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Evergrande/ Taiwan/ US-China/ Politics

In my weekly digest, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and...

Diana Choyleva

A Trading Strategy for the Upcoming KOSDAQ150 Rebalance in December

In this insight, we provide a trading strategy on the upcoming KOSDAQ150 rebalance announcement in November. In the past one month, the 10 stocks...

Douglas Kim

Rubber Industry Grapples With Aftershock Of China’s Crackdown

The crackdown on power consumption coupled with the crisis of Evergrande Group looms large over the demand for natural rubber in China as the...

Helixtap

Chinese Estates’ Privatisation Bid from the Lau Family

The Lau family is taking advantage of the Evergrande stake fallout to privatise Chinese Estates at the cost of minorities. The offer is...

Arun George

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