Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released today the key China data for November, related to property sales and investments by developers at a national level, showing a gradually decelerating growth of new home sales volumes (residential gross floor area for "commercial residential" property) year-to-date year-on-year and the decline on a 3-month year-on-year basis, with a sustained pace of new starts and investments, slightly slower land acquisition growth. In line with our expectations. </p>

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released today the key China data for November, related to property sales and investments by developers at a national level, showing a gradually decelerating growth of new home sales volumes (residential gross floor area for "commercial residential" property) year-to-date year-on-year and the decline on a 3-month year-on-year basis, with a sustained pace of new starts and investments, slightly slower land acquisition growth. In line with our expectations. 

China Housing: November Sales Volume Growth Slower YTD Y/Y, Negative 3M Y/Y (Today's Data From NBS)

Chief Economist

Diana Choyleva

Enodo Economics

Enodo Economics is an independent macroeconomic forecasting company that untangles complexity, challenges the consensus, and makes sense of the future. Our focus is on China – one of the most misunderstood economies in the world, but one of the most important to figure out.  Enodo’s chief economist, Diana Choyleva, has been analysing China for almost 20 years, while Enodo’s team boasts a combined 140 years’ experience covering China’s economy, politics and markets. 

Macroeconomics

<h2><strong>China News That Matters</strong></h2>
<ul>
<li>Tech tycoon’s daughter trapped in US-China struggle</li>
<li>Worried homebuyers – and developers</li>
<li>Forging those new Silk Roads</li>
<li>Copycats no more?</li>
<li>And another thing… Central bank reaches out</li>
</ul>
<div class="content-remarks">
<p>In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.</p>
</div>

China News That Matters

Tech tycoon’s daughter trapped in US-China struggle
Worried homebuyers – and developers
Forging those new Silk Roads
Copycats no more?
And another thing… Central bank reaches out


In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.


Tech War/Property Woes/BRI/IPR/PBoC Speaks

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<p>Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar. </p>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar. 

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 05 Dec 2018

<p>Toward the end of November, bond market traders seemed to reassess the Fed’s pace of rate tightening, with signs emerging of a sputtering in global economic growth. Last month, the IMF downgraded its forecast for world growth, and recently warned that the outlook may have deteriorated.</p><p>Minutes from the last FOMC meeting indicated that Fed officials discussed the modification of language on "further gradual" hikes, as well as the need for a flexible approach on rates. This approach seems realistic, given the falling oil prices and indications of a cooling in the medium-term prospects for US inflation (the core PCE deflator for October missed expectations at 1.8%).</p>

Toward the end of November, bond market traders seemed to reassess the Fed’s pace of rate tightening, with signs emerging of a sputtering in global economic growth. Last month, the IMF downgraded its forecast for world growth, and recently warned that the outlook may have deteriorated.Minutes from the last FOMC meeting indicated that Fed officials discussed the modification of language on "further gradual" hikes, as well as the need for a flexible approach on rates. This approach seems realistic, given the falling oil prices and indications of a cooling in the medium-term prospects for US inflation (the core PCE deflator for October missed expectations at 1.8%).

Lucror Asia HY Monthly – Chinese Macro Overview (November 2018)

<p><strong>Here's a puzzle.</strong> How come the NBS metrics show an accelerating house price growth in October when you hear all the news and anecdotes about discounted prices, the "coming winter" for the housing market and a surge in financing costs?</p>

Here's a puzzle. How come the NBS metrics show an accelerating house price growth in October when you hear all the news and anecdotes about discounted prices, the "coming winter" for the housing market and a surge in financing costs?

China Housing: The Puzzling Price Growth - October NBS Data

China

China Evergrande Group is an integrated residential property developer. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development, investment, management, finance, internet, health, culture, and tourism markets.

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Evergrande (3333 HK)

China Housing: November Sales Volume Growth Slower YTD Y/Y, Negative 3M Y/Y (Today's Data From NBS)

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released today the key China data for November, related to property sales and investments by developers at...

Robert Ciemniak

Tech War/Property Woes/BRI/IPR/PBoC Speaks

China News That Matters Tech tycoon’s daughter trapped in US-China struggle Worried homebuyers – and developers Forging those new Silk...

Diana Choyleva

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 05 Dec 2018

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Asia HY Monthly – Chinese Macro Overview (November 2018)

Toward the end of November, bond market traders seemed to reassess the Fed’s pace of rate tightening, with signs emerging of a sputtering in global...

Lucror Analytics

China Housing: The Puzzling Price Growth - October NBS Data

Here's a puzzle. How come the NBS metrics show an accelerating house price growth in October when you hear all the news and anecdotes about...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)