Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Investor sentiment for Asian HY remained healthy in March, maintaining the strong growth from January and February. That said, there is increasing uncertainty as to whether the US/Sino trade war will be resolved in the short term, with US President Donald Trump seemingly adopting a belligerent stance and Chinese President Xi Jinping waiting for Mr Trump to blink. Major Asian countries are suffering collateral damage, as Chinese imports to February fell y-o-y.

Investor sentiment for Asian HY remained healthy in March, maintaining the strong growth from January and February. That said, there is increasing uncertainty as to whether the US/Sino trade war will be resolved in the short term, with US President Donald Trump seemingly adopting a belligerent stance and Chinese President Xi Jinping waiting for Mr Trump to blink. Major Asian countries are suffering collateral damage, as Chinese imports to February fell y-o-y.

Asia HY Monthly – China Property Update (March 2019)

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar. 

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 27 Mar 2019

Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Chuanyi Zhou

Credit Analyst

Evergrande’s 2018 results were in line with our expectations. Financial leverage declined, thanks to lower borrowings and strong top-line growth. Moreover, the company slowed its pace of land acquisition. That said, it remains highly leveraged, especially given liabilities to compensate strategic onshore investors. Evergrande’s is also vulnerable to a slowdown in contracted sales and to weaker cash collection. In our view, liquidity may come under pressure. Evergrande has weak Cash/Short-term Debt coverage and a large land premium is due this year, while contracted sales have been slowing down. Further, the company has been increasingly involved in non-core businesses, among which the new energy vehicle is particularly capital-intensive and risky. These negatives are partially mitigated by good access to capital, as evidenced by the USD Notes issuance earlier this year.

   Evergrande’s 2018 results were in line with our expectations. Financial leverage declined, thanks to lower borrowings and strong top-line growth. Moreover, the company slowed its pace of land acquisition. That said, it remains highly leveraged, especially given liabilities to compensate strategic onshore investors. Evergrande’s is also vulnerable to a slowdown in contracted sales and to weaker cash collection.    In our view, liquidity may come under pressure. Evergrande has weak Cash/Short-term Debt coverage and a large land premium is due this year, while contracted sales have been slowing down. Further, the company has been increasingly involved in non-core businesses, among which the new energy vehicle is particularly capital-intensive and risky. These negatives are partially mitigated by good access to capital, as evidenced by the USD Notes issuance earlier this year. 

China Evergrande - Earnings Flash - FY 2018 Results - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for March includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also provide relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

   The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for March includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also provide relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - March 2019 - Lucror Analytics

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The data released by NBS over the past 2 days shows the market for new home sales in China continues to slow down, with volumes in decline on a year-to-date year-on-year measure for January-February. Price growth is slowing month-on-month, though by one measure still rising faster year-on-year.

The data released by NBS over the past 2 days shows the market for new home sales in China continues to slow down, with volumes in decline on a year-to-date year-on-year measure for January-February. Price growth is slowing month-on-month, though by one measure still rising faster year-on-year.

China Housing: Price Growth Slowing Down, With YTD Y/Y Decline In Volumes

China

China Evergrande Group is an integrated residential property developer. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development, investment, management, finance, internet, health, culture, and tourism markets.

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Evergrande (3333 HK)

Asia HY Monthly – China Property Update (March 2019)

Investor sentiment for Asian HY remained healthy in March, maintaining the strong growth from January and February. That said, there is increasing...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 27 Mar 2019

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

China Evergrande - Earnings Flash - FY 2018 Results - Lucror Analytics

Evergrande’s 2018 results were in line with our expectations. Financial leverage declined, thanks to lower borrowings and strong top-line growth....

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - March 2019 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for March includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also...

Lucror Analytics

China Housing: Price Growth Slowing Down, With YTD Y/Y Decline In Volumes

The data released by NBS over the past 2 days shows the market for new home sales in China continues to slow down, with volumes in decline on a...

Robert Ciemniak

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52-week Range

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