Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

This week in StubWorld ...
<ul>
<li>Select media ops (Free TV and OTT), together with substantial losses booked to other businesses and eliminations, continue to weigh heavily on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/873" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a>'s stub ops.</li>
</ul>
Preceding my comments on PCCW and other stubs are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.

This week in StubWorld ...

Select media ops (Free TV and OTT), together with substantial losses booked to other businesses and eliminations, continue to weigh heavily on PCCW Ltd (8 HK)'s stub ops.

Preceding my comments on PCCW and other stubs are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.

StubWorld: PCCW Is “Cheap” but Stub Ops Are Deteriorating

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

India’s non-banking finance company (NBFC), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15425" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15425:1">Muthoot Finance (MUTH IN; "MTF")</a>, lends against gold, arguably the best collateral of all. Its gold jewelry kept as security is up from 147 tons to 166 tons, from December 2016 to December 2018. This may be one reason that the company’s bad loans are low, not only in an India context, but in Asia. Its stage three loans surged after demonetization peaking in December 2017 at INR21.5bn. Since then, figures have fallen sharply, to INR6.4bn as at December 2018. As a percentage of loans, stage three loans declined from 7.6% to 2.0% over this period. With credit costs and write-offs down 96% during 9M19 YoY, credit metrics appear healthy.

India’s non-banking finance company (NBFC), Muthoot Finance (MUTH IN; "MTF"), lends against gold, arguably the best collateral of all. Its gold jewelry kept as security is up from 147 tons to 166 tons, from December 2016 to December 2018. This may be one reason that the company’s bad loans are low, not only in an India context, but in Asia. Its stage three loans surged after demonetization peaking in December 2017 at INR21.5bn. Since then, figures have fallen sharply, to INR6.4bn as at December 2018. As a percentage of loans, stage three loans declined from 7.6% to 2.0% over this period. With credit costs and write-offs down 96% during 9M19 YoY, credit metrics appear healthy.

Muthoot Finance – Top ROA Lender, with 116 Tons of Gold!

This week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/167" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:167:1">China Everbright Ltd (165 HK)</a> is around the "cheapest" inside a year, with various opportunities to monetise assets expected in 2018; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11526" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11526:1">Green Cross Holdings Corp (005250 KS)</a> looks fully priced after subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2969" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2969:1">Green Cross Corp (006280 KS)</a> announced disappointing 4Q17 results.These relationships trade with: 1) a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average; and 2) a minimum 20% 'market capitalisation' threshold, whereby the value of the holding/opco held must be at least 20% of the parent's market cap.A detailed NAV for a number of these parent/holding relationships highlighted can be found in our holdco monitor.My comments on China Everbright and Green Cross follow the weekly setup/unwind tables.(Market cap and liquidity noted below are in US$. Liquidity is assessed on a 3-month average)

This week: China Everbright Ltd (165 HK) is around the "cheapest" inside a year, with various opportunities to monetise assets expected in 2018; and Green Cross Holdings Corp (005250 KS) looks fully priced after subsidiary Green Cross Corp (006280 KS) announced disappointing 4Q17 results.These relationships trade with: 1) a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average; and 2) a minimum 20% 'market capitalisation' threshold, whereby the value of the holding/opco held must be at least 20% of the parent's market cap.A detailed NAV for a number of these parent/holding relationships highlighted can be found in our holdco monitor.My comments on China Everbright and Green Cross follow the weekly setup/unwind tables.(Market cap and liquidity noted below are in US$. Liquidity is assessed on a 3-month average)

StubWorld - Set-Up & Unwind Extremes: China Everbright; Green Cross

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Where so many of us are focused on the impact of China slowdown on its banks, it is worth highlighting the risks to Hong Kong’s banks. But what we are focused on here is their domestic lending, not the stuff booked locally but for use in China. For most, the perception is that Hong Kong banks have little risk due to a strong emphasis on mortgage lending, but we are not convinced this is holding up, and we believe it will worsen.  Of course, the new marginally higher interest costs in Hong Kong…

Where so many of us are focused on the impact of China slowdown on its banks, it is worth highlighting the risks to Hong Kong’s banks. But what we are focused on here is their domestic lending, not the stuff booked locally but for use in China. For most, the perception is that Hong Kong banks have little risk due to a strong emphasis on mortgage lending, but we are not convinced this is holding up, and we believe it will worsen.  Of course, the new marginally higher interest costs in Hong Kong…

Domestic NPLs in Hong Kong Can Surprise – Not Just Those in Neighboring China

Public Relations and Social Media Manager, Dechert LLP

Peggy Heffner

Public Relations and Social Media Manager

Dechert is a global specialist law firm

Dechert LLP

Dechert is a global specialist law firm.
Focused on sectors with the greatest complexities, legal intricacies and highest regulatory demands, we excel in delivering practical commercial judgment and deep legal expertise for high-stakes matters.

Our work is widely recognized. We have 20 standout practices noted by Chambers Global, including global-wide rankings for arbitration, corporate investigations, anti-corruption, investment funds and life sciences. Named Antitrust Team of the Year, Chambers USA commends our “accomplished group” as “routinely sought after to handle some of the most significant litigation and transactions in the antitrust world.” 

In an increasingly challenging environment, clients look to us to serve them in ways that are faster, sharper and leaner without compromising excellence. We developed a first-of-its kind legal project management department, which uses technology, people and processes to drive efficiency and deliver value for our clients.

We are innovators. Dechert ranked #7 in the Financial Times’ Top North American Innovative Law Firms. Financial Times also recognizes us among the Top European Innovative Law Firms and highly commends World Compass, our marketing compliance service, which offers investment firms advice in more than 100 jurisdictions.

The Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (SFC) and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued a joint announcement on 25 November 2016 approving the launch of the long-awaited Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect and trading commenced this week on 5 December 2016. This supplements the prior joint official announcement made by the SFC and the CSRC in August 2016.

The Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (SFC) and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued a joint announcement on 25 November 2016 approving the launch of the long-awaited Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect and trading commenced this week on 5 December 2016. This supplements the prior joint official announcement made by the SFC and the CSRC in August 2016.

The Shenzhen–Hong Kong Stock Connect. A Legal Update from Dechert's Financial Services Group

Hong Kong

China Everbright Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides investment banking, commercial banking, corporate finance, and investment advisory services.  The Company also invests in properties and provides insurance, brokerage, secretarial, and money lending services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Everbright (165 HK)

StubWorld: PCCW Is “Cheap” but Stub Ops Are Deteriorating

This week in StubWorld ... Select media ops (Free TV and OTT), together with substantial losses booked to other businesses and eliminations,...

David Blennerhassett

Muthoot Finance – Top ROA Lender, with 116 Tons of Gold!

India’s non-banking finance company (NBFC), Muthoot Finance (MUTH IN; "MTF"), lends against gold, arguably the best collateral of all. Its gold...

Daniel Tabbush

StubWorld - Set-Up & Unwind Extremes: China Everbright; Green Cross

This week: China Everbright Ltd (165 HK) is around the "cheapest" inside a year, with various opportunities to monetise assets expected in 2018;...

David Blennerhassett

Domestic NPLs in Hong Kong Can Surprise – Not Just Those in Neighboring China

Where so many of us are focused on the impact of China slowdown on its banks, it is worth highlighting the risks to Hong Kong’s banks. But what we...

Daniel Tabbush

The Shenzhen–Hong Kong Stock Connect. A Legal Update from Dechert's Financial Services Group

The Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (SFC) and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued a joint announcement on 25...

Dechert LLP

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)