HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The 42% collapse in share price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-education-group-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18218:1" rel="noopener">China Education Group (839 HK)</a> (CEG) seems to be overreaction to the speculated regulatory measures which we think many of them are counter-intuitive.</li>
<li>These measures center around the legality of Variable Interest Entity, ban on future M&amp;As, ownership of school assets and prohibition of increase in tuition fee at will.</li>
<li>Higher education, unlike after school tutoring, supports government policy, lightens governments' financial pressure and enhances common prosperity; and CEG remains the best play on this angle. </li>
</ul>


The 42% collapse in share price of China Education Group (839 HK) (CEG) seems to be overreaction to the speculated regulatory measures which we think many of them are counter-intuitive.
These measures center around the legality of Variable Interest Entity, ban on future M&amp;As, ownership of school assets and prohibition of increase in tuition fee at will.
Higher education, unlike after school tutoring, supports government policy, lightens governments' financial pressure and enhances common prosperity; and CEG remains the best play on this angle. 


China Education Group (839 HK): Further Regulatory Headwinds?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-education-group-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18218:1" rel="noopener">China Education Group (839 HK)</a> appears to be facing the headwinds from higher USD interest rate and reduction in capitalised interest. The intangible write-off is another drag on FY23.</li>
<li>Newly registered students increased 17.8% for FY24. With better average fees, this will help the topline. Our concerns are high finance and operating costs will erode revenue growth.</li>
<li>Consensus is overly aggressive and there are risks of downgrade. Earnings may re-accelerate in the future, but weaker 1H FY24F keeps us on the sideline in the short term. </li>
</ul>



China Education Group (839 HK) appears to be facing the headwinds from higher USD interest rate and reduction in capitalised interest. The intangible write-off is another drag on FY23.
Newly registered students increased 17.8% for FY24. With better average fees, this will help the topline. Our concerns are high finance and operating costs will erode revenue growth.
Consensus is overly aggressive and there are risks of downgrade. Earnings may re-accelerate in the future, but weaker 1H FY24F keeps us on the sideline in the short term. 


China Education Group (839 HK): Not so Encouraging in the near Term

Research and Strategy for the Education Sector, Schoolhouse Solutions

Edward Slade

Research and Strategy for the Education Sector

Schoolhouse Solutions

Schoolhouse is a strategy and research provider for the Education sector. We publish differentiated reports and bespoke research on the sector, focused on private and public companies in Asia-Pacific. Our team has decades of experience working with Education companies ranging from K-12 to Tertiary and Edtech.

Strategy and Research Provider

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Recovery in face-to-face education stocks will accelerate as Chinese international students return on-campus</li>
<li>International K-12 schools will perform strongly as hubs like Dubai and Singapore are booming.</li>
<li>Service providers like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idp-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1098:1" rel="noopener">IDP Education (IEL AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/flywire-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33339:1" rel="noopener">Flywire Corp (FLYW US)</a>; schools like Taaleem; and tertiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-education-group-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18218:1" rel="noopener">China Education Group (839 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/laureate-education-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26388:1" rel="noopener">Laureate Education (LAUR US)</a>,  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icollege-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14576:1" rel="noopener">Icollege Ltd (ICT AU)</a> will outperform.</li>
</ul>


Recovery in face-to-face education stocks will accelerate as Chinese international students return on-campus
International K-12 schools will perform strongly as hubs like Dubai and Singapore are booming.
Service providers like IDP Education (IEL AU), Flywire Corp (FLYW US); schools like Taaleem; and tertiary China Education Group (839 HK) , Laureate Education (LAUR US),  and Icollege Ltd (ICT AU) will outperform.


International Education Stocks: Surging Student Volumes

<ul>
<li>Global EdTech venture funding surged 29% YoY to US$20.8bn in 2021. China saw c.75% YoY decline in EdTech venture funding but India recorded over 60% growth.</li>
<li>Into 2022, we expect EdTech spending and market will continue to grow, venture funding becoming more selective and Asia and workforce are the fastest growing markets.</li>
<li>China stays weak in 1H22 and India will thrive. India has 4 new unicorns in 2021 while none for China. We stick to higher education, not EdTech (tutoring) in China.</li>
</ul>


Global EdTech venture funding surged 29% YoY to US$20.8bn in 2021. China saw c.75% YoY decline in EdTech venture funding but India recorded over 60% growth.
Into 2022, we expect EdTech spending and market will continue to grow, venture funding becoming more selective and Asia and workforce are the fastest growing markets.
China stays weak in 1H22 and India will thrive. India has 4 new unicorns in 2021 while none for China. We stick to higher education, not EdTech (tutoring) in China.


Asia EdTech and China Education: An Update

Share price of the China Education Sector stocks, particularly the US listed online education ones, are hit hardest on Friday amid the rumoured release of extremely stringent government regulatory changes. The CCPC and State Council official announcement was made on Saturday, and basically removed the survival of online and curriculum-related after-school tutoring classes for Pre-K and compulsory education grades. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-tech-grp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:531:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education (EDU US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tal-education-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1124:1" rel="noopener">TAL Education (TAL US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gaotu-techedu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28069:1" rel="noopener">Gaotu Techedu (GOTU US)</a> all pledged to support the decisions on Saturday night via Weibo.We believe the best way to position in the sector is to focus on higher and vocational education sub-segments. In this regard, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-education-group-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18218:1" rel="noopener">China Education Group (839 HK)</a> is best positioned given its pure exposure in this market and nil exposure to K-12 schools (online/offline). The 26.3% drop in share price from the peak provides an attractive entry point, in our view. Among the three online education companies, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-tech-grp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:531:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education (EDU US)</a> looks comparatively safer due to its buffer from other businesses, but we would warn against the extreme risks associated with bottom-fishing this name.

Share price of the China Education Sector stocks, particularly the US listed online education ones, are hit hardest on Friday amid the rumoured release of extremely stringent government regulatory changes. The CCPC and State Council official announcement was made on Saturday, and basically removed the survival of online and curriculum-related after-school tutoring classes for Pre-K and compulsory education grades. New Oriental Education (EDU US), TAL Education (TAL US) and Gaotu Techedu (GOTU US) all pledged to support the decisions on Saturday night via Weibo.We believe the best way to position in the sector is to focus on higher and vocational education sub-segments. In this regard, China Education Group (839 HK) is best positioned given its pure exposure in this market and nil exposure to K-12 schools (online/offline). The 26.3% drop in share price from the peak provides an attractive entry point, in our view. Among the three online education companies, New Oriental Education (EDU US) looks comparatively safer due to its buffer from other businesses, but we would warn against the extreme risks associated with bottom-fishing this name.

China Private Education: How to Position After the Regulatory Crackdown?

China

Fu Shou Yuan International Group, Ltd. is a death care service provider in China.  The Company operates cemeteries and funeral facilities.

East Buy Holding Limited operates livestreaming platform businesses. The Company provides private label products including agricultural products, food, books, and household goods. East Buy Holding also conducts college education businesses.

Xiamen Unigroup Xue Co., Ltd. offers various educational services. The Company provides after-school tutoring and education consulting. Unigroup Xue also participates in real estate development and investment activities.

China Chunlai Education Group Co., Ltd. provides educational services. The Company offers private higher education services and other services. China Chunlai Education Group provides services in China.

Zhejiang Yasha Decoration Company Ltd. provides decorating services for large-scale infrastructure, high-end luxury hotel and luxury residential property.

China East Education Holdings Limited provides vocational training educational services. The Company offers culinary education, internet technology education, automotive education, and other services. China East Education Holdings provides services in China.

Shanghai Xin Nanyang Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, manufactures communication products and industrial equipment, develops cable TV network, security trading, and communication systems, provides network integration, education, and precision processing services.

China Kepei Education Group Limited provides educational services. The Company offers high-quality profession-oriented education services and other services. China Kepei Education Group provides services in China.

China YuHua Education operates private education from kindergarten to university in China.

Dong Yi Ri Sheng Home Decoration Group Company Limited designs and constructs set decorations, integrates home decoration materials, manufactures wood products and provides organic home decoration solutions, and its franchise business.

Dong Yi Ri Sheng Home Decoratn Gp (002713 CH)

InvoCare Limited owns and operates funeral homes, cemeteries and crematoriums in Australia. The Company's activities include the provision of funerals, burials and cremations through it's funeral home brands including Blackwell, Guardian, George Hartnett, Le Pine, Purslowe, Simplicity Funerals and White Lady Funerals.

Perdoceo Education Corporation provides educational services. The Company offers a variety of bachelor's, associate, and non-degree programs, with a core curricula of information technologies, visual communication and design technologies, business studies, and culinary arts. Perdoceo Education operates in the United States.

Universal Technical Institute Inc., through its Universal Technical Institute (UTI) campuses, provides technical education training. The Schools, through its UTI campuses, offers automotive, collision repair and refinishing, and diesel training. UTI also offers training in motorcycle, marine, and personal watercraft through its Motorcycle and Marine Mechanics Institutes(MMI).

Universal Technical Institute, Inc (UTI US)

SISB operates a premium K-12 international school in Thailand, adopted Singapore, UK and IBDP curriculum as a blended student pathway in schools. SISB was established in 2001 with the school license under the Private School Act. Currently, there are 6 international schools with over 4,000 students.

G8 Education Limited provides community-focused child care for families to foster their child's development.  The Company also conducts a range of child care services that includes child care centers acquisition, child care centers management, and industry-related project management, services and consultancy.

Lung Yen Life Service Corp operates a cemetery and offers funeral and disposition services.

Laureate Education, Inc. provides educational services. The University offers undergraduate and doctoral degrees in business and management, medical and health sciences, engineering, information technology, architecture, education, law, communications, and hospitality management. Laureate Education operates worldwide.

AcadeMedia AB provides educational services. The Company offers pre-school, elementary, secondary, vocational, adult education, comprehensive lesson plans, skills training, and professional rehabilitation services. AcadeMedia operates throughout Sweden.

Propel Funeral Partners Limited provides funeral services. The Company owns and operates funeral homes, cemeteries, crematoria, and related assets, as well as offers funeral, cremation, burial, and mortuary services. Propel Funeral Partners serves individuals and families in Australia and New Zealand.

Perfect Medical Health Management (previously Perfect Shape Medical Limited) offers slimming and beauty treatments. The Company provides fat softens and dissolves services, laser freckle services, and other services. Perfect Shape Medical offers services in China.

China Education Group Holdings Limited offers educational services. The Company provides private universities operating services, education training services, and other services. China Education Group Holdings offers services in Hong Kong.

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China Education Group (839 HK)