HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-education-group-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18218:1" rel="noopener">China Education Group (839 HK)</a>'s plunge in share price is due to management's guidance for a 10-15% drop in adjusted net profit, significantly lower than the current consensus.</li>
<li>Its decision to pause dividends for the foreseeable future on debt repayment burden and tight offshore refinancing environment for the sector has further disappointed the market.</li>
<li>Based on guidance, its PER of 3.7x and nil dividend yield for FY25 make it unattractive relative to peers (1.7-2.9x PER). We shy away until things improve.</li>
</ul>



China Education Group (839 HK)'s plunge in share price is due to management's guidance for a 10-15% drop in adjusted net profit, significantly lower than the current consensus.
Its decision to pause dividends for the foreseeable future on debt repayment burden and tight offshore refinancing environment for the sector has further disappointed the market.
Based on guidance, its PER of 3.7x and nil dividend yield for FY25 make it unattractive relative to peers (1.7-2.9x PER). We shy away until things improve.


China Education Group (839 HK): A Large Disappointment

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-education-group-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18218:1" rel="noopener">China Education Group (839 HK)</a>'s 27.8% growth in net profit affirmed its solid fundamentals and minimal exposure to regulatory risks. We also welcome its resumption of dividends.</li>
<li>Management expects profitability will be driven by the 48% new student enrollment growth, potential for tuition increase and global education segment recovery. Consensus forecasts are currently too conservative.</li>
<li>Weaker 2H FY22 profit is due to higher depreciation and finance costs but will be absorbed with higher enrollment. Capex will be light and we also like its deleveraging move. </li>
</ul>



China Education Group (839 HK)'s 27.8% growth in net profit affirmed its solid fundamentals and minimal exposure to regulatory risks. We also welcome its resumption of dividends.
Management expects profitability will be driven by the 48% new student enrollment growth, potential for tuition increase and global education segment recovery. Consensus forecasts are currently too conservative.
Weaker 2H FY22 profit is due to higher depreciation and finance costs but will be absorbed with higher enrollment. Capex will be light and we also like its deleveraging move. 


China Education Group (839 HK): Shining Through

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<li>Although the reported FY24 net profit plunged 69.7% due to intangible impairments, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-education-group-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18218:1" rel="noopener">China Education Group (839 HK)</a>'s adjusted net profit grew by 3.3% and adjusted EBITDA by 12.3%.</li>
<li>Based on adjusted net profit, its payout ratio is flat at 40%, implying an 8% dividend yield. This suggests underlying operations are decent and demonstrate confidence in the outlook.</li>
<li>Both tuition and enrollment are expected to sustain growth in FY25, meaning that a consensus forecast of 9% net profit is achievable. Its 4.5x PER does not appear stretched.</li>
</ul>


Although the reported FY24 net profit plunged 69.7% due to intangible impairments, China Education Group (839 HK)'s adjusted net profit grew by 3.3% and adjusted EBITDA by 12.3%.
Based on adjusted net profit, its payout ratio is flat at 40%, implying an 8% dividend yield. This suggests underlying operations are decent and demonstrate confidence in the outlook.
Both tuition and enrollment are expected to sustain growth in FY25, meaning that a consensus forecast of 9% net profit is achievable. Its 4.5x PER does not appear stretched.


China Education Group (839 HK): What's up After the Big Bath?

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<li>Positive response of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-education-group-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18218:1" rel="noopener">China Education Group (839 HK)</a>'s placement indicated a good return of investor appetite to the sector. Its premium multiples stay well justified even after recent rally. </li>
<li>The HK$1.6bn proceeds will reduce gearing to 29.2% (including contract liabilities) from 41.7% with minimal dilution. Narrowing in valuation gap against asking price of targets means more M&amp;A potential. </li>
<li>More funding for expansion of existing campuses, increase in accommodation and the set up of COVID-19 related curriculum will allow CEG to realise higher revenue per student.</li>
</ul>


Positive response of China Education Group (839 HK)'s placement indicated a good return of investor appetite to the sector. Its premium multiples stay well justified even after recent rally. 
The HK$1.6bn proceeds will reduce gearing to 29.2% (including contract liabilities) from 41.7% with minimal dilution. Narrowing in valuation gap against asking price of targets means more M&amp;A potential. 
More funding for expansion of existing campuses, increase in accommodation and the set up of COVID-19 related curriculum will allow CEG to realise higher revenue per student.


China Education Group (839 HK): Solidifying Investment Thesis After Placement

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-education-group-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18218:1" rel="noopener">China Education Group (839 HK)</a> has retreated 23% from recent high with no regulatory and company news. Given its secured earnings growth outlook, we see an opportunity. </li>
<li>We believe drivers are higher enrollment and tuition, further capacity growth, good progress in overseas education and light capex. There are positive developments in these aspects recently. </li>
<li>CEG may return unused share buyback funds to shareholders via dividend, suggesting a potential resumption of payout. At just 5.7x PER for FY23F, its growth prospect is undervalued.</li>
</ul>



China Education Group (839 HK) has retreated 23% from recent high with no regulatory and company news. Given its secured earnings growth outlook, we see an opportunity. 
We believe drivers are higher enrollment and tuition, further capacity growth, good progress in overseas education and light capex. There are positive developments in these aspects recently. 
CEG may return unused share buyback funds to shareholders via dividend, suggesting a potential resumption of payout. At just 5.7x PER for FY23F, its growth prospect is undervalued.


China Education Group (839 HK): Sustaining Growth Trajectory

China

China Education Group Holdings Limited offers educational services. The Company provides private universities operating services, education training services, and other services. China Education Group Holdings offers services in Hong Kong.

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China Education Group (839 HK)