Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

With Value funds making gains on Growth funds this year, where are EM Value managers positioned?Country: U/W China &amp; HK and India, O/W South Korea and Mexico.  Note also the overweight in Turkey, with 71% of the Value funds in our analysis positioned overweight versus the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF.Sector:U/W Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services and Health Care.  O/W  Materials, Industrials and Financials.Read on for further data and analysis on Industry and Stock positioning.Analysis taken from our Emerging Markets Research, covering 242 active GEM funds with combined AUM of $500bn

With Value funds making gains on Growth funds this year, where are EM Value managers positioned?Country: U/W China &amp; HK and India, O/W South Korea and Mexico.  Note also the overweight in Turkey, with 71% of the Value funds in our analysis positioned overweight versus the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF.Sector:U/W Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services and Health Care.  O/W  Materials, Industrials and Financials.Read on for further data and analysis on Industry and Stock positioning.Analysis taken from our Emerging Markets Research, covering 242 active GEM funds with combined AUM of $500bn

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In the spirit of the long-awaited UEFA Euro 2020, we present our inaugural "China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook", which summarizes our views on the names that are best positioned to navigate an environment of progressively slower credit growth, tighter liquidity and rising defaults. 
Our screen consists of 100+ stocks in the A/H share universe, as well as a select number of international / non-traditional names that have significant exposures to China's financial system. We have a preference for larger-cap and liquid names, which are then filtered by our opinions on their fundamentals, value, momentum and recent trading volumes. We also try to make our selections versatile and less vulnerable to single-factor movements.
Each player's position on the pitch and the team formation itself convey incremental information about our thoughts on the sector's performance over a three to six-month horizon. To the extent possible, we intend to update our ideas on a periodic basis. This provides a feedback loop with our other ongoing research on the industry.
However, our team selections are not investment recommendations. Instead, they are meant to give structure to our analysis. The playbook allows us to articulate our views on the sector in a timely, concise manner. Our objective is to ensure we don't throw the baby out with the bathwater as sentiments on the sector remain bleak.
With that out of the way, the following is our starting XI. We will dive deeper into our rationale for our selections in the remainder of this insight (Exhibit 1).
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<td style="width: 726.047px;">Exhibit 1: China Financials | Silver Linings Playbook</td>
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Source: Our analysis
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In the spirit of the long-awaited UEFA Euro 2020, we present our inaugural "China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook", which summarizes our views on the names that are best positioned to navigate an environment of progressively slower credit growth, tighter liquidity and rising defaults. 
Our screen consists of 100+ stocks in the A/H share universe, as well as a select number of international / non-traditional names that have significant exposures to China's financial system. We have a preference for larger-cap and liquid names, which are then filtered by our opinions on their fundamentals, value, momentum and recent trading volumes. We also try to make our selections versatile and less vulnerable to single-factor movements.
Each player's position on the pitch and the team formation itself convey incremental information about our thoughts on the sector's performance over a three to six-month horizon. To the extent possible, we intend to update our ideas on a periodic basis. This provides a feedback loop with our other ongoing research on the industry.
However, our team selections are not investment recommendations. Instead, they are meant to give structure to our analysis. The playbook allows us to articulate our views on the sector in a timely, concise manner. Our objective is to ensure we don't throw the baby out with the bathwater as sentiments on the sector remain bleak.
With that out of the way, the following is our starting XI. We will dive deeper into our rationale for our selections in the remainder of this insight (Exhibit 1).



Exhibit 1: China Financials | Silver Linings Playbook





Source: Our analysis




Related Insights
China Macro: Consumers Remain on the Sidelines, as Their Home Equity Grows 
Glut and Famine: We Might See Snow in China This Summer 
China Macro: PPI Peaks, while CPI Eases Tightening Fears 
China Macro: Exports Disappoint, but It's Still Early in the Game 
Glut and Famine: China's Monetary Conditions a Notch Tighter in May 
ICBC: The Bond Identity | A Zero-Growth Dividend Discount Story 
BOC Aviation (2588 HK): The Stars Don't Look Bigger, but They Do Look Brighter

China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

China Huarong Asset Management / Equity Bottom-Up

*Legacy Risks Strangling China Huarong: The issue appears to be China Huarong Asset Management’s (Huarong) legacy exposure associated with the misdeeds of its former Chairman, which still need to be addressed. Since our last note, Huarong still continues to teeter on the edge of insolvency and ongoing silence from Beijing has materially impacted funding costs. Huarong has until August 2021 to finally release its 2020 financial statements; and *Too Big Too Fail:  None of what is occurring should come as a surprise given mainland China's rapidly increasing debt position since the financial crisis - along with the same at its SOEs which are perceived to be too-big-to-fail and wield enormous political clout. A funding backstop from state-owned banks has been ordered by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC), and the mainland Chinese government is likely to again blink and make good on Huarong's significant debt obligations. Distressed investors should consider picking away at Huarong’s debt; we’ll believe it when see Beijing imposing losses on investors in SOEs.

*Legacy Risks Strangling China Huarong: The issue appears to be China Huarong Asset Management’s (Huarong) legacy exposure associated with the misdeeds of its former Chairman, which still need to be addressed. Since our last note, Huarong still continues to teeter on the edge of insolvency and ongoing silence from Beijing has materially impacted funding costs. Huarong has until August 2021 to finally release its 2020 financial statements; and *Too Big Too Fail:  None of what is occurring should come as a surprise given mainland China's rapidly increasing debt position since the financial crisis - along with the same at its SOEs which are perceived to be too-big-to-fail and wield enormous political clout. A funding backstop from state-owned banks has been ordered by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC), and the mainland Chinese government is likely to again blink and make good on Huarong's significant debt obligations. Distressed investors should consider picking away at Huarong’s debt; we’ll believe it when see Beijing imposing losses on investors in SOEs.

China Huarong Asset Management – Silence Is Golden

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

China Construction Bank  / Equity Bottom-Up

We all know that the four state-owned banks in China are more or less homogenous. While the current valuation PB differential of CCB for its China listing may appear high, we believe this may be justified compared with peers, when analysing ROA and loan loss reserves.

We all know that the four state-owned banks in China are more or less homogenous. While the current valuation PB differential of CCB for its China listing may appear high, we believe this may be justified compared with peers, when analysing ROA and loan loss reserves. 

CCB – China Premium To HK Listing, A Telling Indicator?

Financials Credit Analyst

Hank Calenti, CFA

CreditContinuum

Credit

Executive Summary:  A slightly declining US interest rate yield curve aided in driving credit spreads tighter during the month of May while Asia’s bank credit market conditions remained largely positive, despite the recent flare-up in Covid-19 cases across the region. Global market liquidity metrics continued to push investors into risk assets and Asia’s bank debt benefitted from concerns in other parts of the market.Asia’s Tier 2 bonds slightly outperformed Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds during May. Both bank debt capital components generated positive total returns during the month. Given five-year effective durations, Asia's AT1 bonds have generated slightly positive total returns year-to-date while Tier 2 notes lag. As with April, Asia’s (x-Japan) US$-denominated bank bond performance diverged by duration during the month of May. Shorter-duration bonds outperformed and, for the most part, longer duration notes underperformed in Option Adjusted Spread terms.Longer duration, high BB rated bonds led spread widening over the month. These bonds were also predominantly Basel III debt capital securities. Unlike in April, there was a mixture of low and high spread bonds amongst underperformers. This suggests greater investor differentiation, via credit fundamentals, in longer duration notes.

Executive Summary:  A slightly declining US interest rate yield curve aided in driving credit spreads tighter during the month of May while Asia’s bank credit market conditions remained largely positive, despite the recent flare-up in Covid-19 cases across the region. Global market liquidity metrics continued to push investors into risk assets and Asia’s bank debt benefitted from concerns in other parts of the market.Asia’s Tier 2 bonds slightly outperformed Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds during May. Both bank debt capital components generated positive total returns during the month. Given five-year effective durations, Asia's AT1 bonds have generated slightly positive total returns year-to-date while Tier 2 notes lag. As with April, Asia’s (x-Japan) US$-denominated bank bond performance diverged by duration during the month of May. Shorter-duration bonds outperformed and, for the most part, longer duration notes underperformed in Option Adjusted Spread terms.Longer duration, high BB rated bonds led spread widening over the month. These bonds were also predominantly Basel III debt capital securities. Unlike in April, there was a mixture of low and high spread bonds amongst underperformers. This suggests greater investor differentiation, via credit fundamentals, in longer duration notes.

Bank Credit Compass: Asia Tier 2 and Short Duration Notes Sit in the Sweet Spot

China

China Construction Bank Corporation provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, fund management, foreign exchange, and other services. China Construction Bank provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

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China Construction Bank (601939 CH)

EM Value Fund Positioning

With Value funds making gains on Growth funds this year, where are active Emerging Market Value managers positioned across countries, sectors,...

Steven Holden

China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook

Our Silver Linings Playbook outlines our views on the China financials names that are most likely to remain resilient in the face of macro...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China Huarong Asset Management – Silence Is Golden

CHINA HUARONG: Huarong's legacy exposure associated with the misdeeds of its former Chairman have caused to Huarong to teeter. Beijing is likely to...

Thomas J. Monaco

CCB – China Premium To HK Listing, A Telling Indicator?

While the current valuation PB differential of CCB for its China listing may appear high, we believe this may be justified compared with peers,...

Daniel Tabbush

Bank Credit Compass: Asia Tier 2 and Short Duration Notes Sit in the Sweet Spot

Asia’s Tier 2 notes slightly outperformed AT1 in May. Shorter-duration bonds outperformed although there was greater differentiation in longer...

Hank Calenti, CFA

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