Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

China Construction Bank H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this China banks screen, we focus on the credit quality headwinds going forward and which are the better positioned banks to confront the challenge</li>
<li>China bank shares’ PBV ratios have eroded over time, due to low growth and credit quality concerns; yet through our analysis of these bank, we see selective contrarian positive opportunities</li>
<li>CCB is a core GEM bank buy for its deeply discounted valuations and strong balance sheet; Ping An Bank is the deep value contrarian pick; Minsheng is our fundamental sell</li>
</ul>


In this China banks screen, we focus on the credit quality headwinds going forward and which are the better positioned banks to confront the challenge
China bank shares’ PBV ratios have eroded over time, due to low growth and credit quality concerns; yet through our analysis of these bank, we see selective contrarian positive opportunities
CCB is a core GEM bank buy for its deeply discounted valuations and strong balance sheet; Ping An Bank is the deep value contrarian pick; Minsheng is our fundamental sell


China Banks; Challenged on Credit Quality Trends, with Selective Opportunities to Be Found

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Alibaba, Xiaomi, SMIC, Geely, CCB and outflows from Meituan.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows into Alibaba, Xiaomi, SMIC, Geely, CCB and outflows from Meituan.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (October): $12 Bn Inflows

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$7.3bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Major buying was mostly SOEs.</li>
<li>The more I watch, the more I think the last few months have had serious national team buying of banks and energy, perhaps ahead of shareholder return policy changes.</li>
<li>But valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows - national team and otherwise.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$7.3bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Major buying was mostly SOEs.
The more I watch, the more I think the last few months have had serious national team buying of banks and energy, perhaps ahead of shareholder return policy changes.
But valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows - national team and otherwise.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Jul 2024); Slower Flows Gross and Net (Buy), Still SOEs

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>The large SOE bank indicates that it will list its housing rental subsidiary, although the proceeds may be inconsequential given the size of CCB.</li>
<li>CCB shows lower (and very low) credit costs despite what appears to be a major weakening in its NPL distribution.</li>
<li>Loss NPLs are up 2.5x from FY19 to 1H23 much more than its 1.5x rise in total NPLs, so that its declining and benign credit costs may not last.</li>
</ul>


The large SOE bank indicates that it will list its housing rental subsidiary, although the proceeds may be inconsequential given the size of CCB.
CCB shows lower (and very low) credit costs despite what appears to be a major weakening in its NPL distribution.
Loss NPLs are up 2.5x from FY19 to 1H23 much more than its 1.5x rise in total NPLs, so that its declining and benign credit costs may not last.


CCB- Housing Rental Subsidiary Listing May Be Overshadowed By Weak Credit Metrics

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Though Sentiment Fragile for Both.</li>
<li>Energy sector shows signs of a turnaround from long-term decline, whilst Financials remain unloved by China investors.</li>
<li>Real Estate allocations have hit record lows, with average holdings at just 2.93%, while Consumer Discretionary sector approaches all-time highs.</li>
</ul>


Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Though Sentiment Fragile for Both.
Energy sector shows signs of a turnaround from long-term decline, whilst Financials remain unloved by China investors.
Real Estate allocations have hit record lows, with average holdings at just 2.93%, while Consumer Discretionary sector approaches all-time highs.


China

China Construction Bank Corporation provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, fund management, foreign exchange, and other services. China Construction Bank provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

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China Construction Bank (601939 CH)

China Banks; Challenged on Credit Quality Trends, with Selective Opportunities to Be Found

Chinese banks' credit quality hurdles create opportunities; CCB is a core bank buy for its discounted valuations and strong balance sheet; Ping An...

Victor Galliano

Hong Kong Connect Flows (October): $12 Bn Inflows

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for October and highlighted flows for Alibaba, Xiaomi, SMIC, Geely, CCB, and Meituan.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Jul 2024); Slower Flows Gross and Net (Buy), Still SOEs

SOUTHBOUND net flows this past week were lower than has been the case in past weeks, but were positive every day, and have been positive 23 weeks...

Travis Lundy

CCB- Housing Rental Subsidiary Listing May Be Overshadowed By Weak Credit Metrics

CCB will list its subsidiary China Housing Rental although this may be small relative to the bank's total loans, and any benefits can be...

Daniel Tabbush

China Macro: Sector Positioning Update

Sector positioning among active China Funds. Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Energy shows signs of a turnaround, whilst...

Steven Holden

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