Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We see 30 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 28 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.</li>
<li>We expect 26 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 25 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 30 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 28 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.
We expect 26 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 25 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

China Conch Venture Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-conch-venture-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19943:1" rel="noopener">China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-conch-cement-co-ltd-094855ab-abec-4b71-956b-5bfc85e22fdd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:389:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Conch Cement (600585 CH)</a> ratio, and the implied stub, are now at all-time lows.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on China Conch/Anhui are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. </li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


The China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK)/ Anhui Conch Cement (600585 CH) ratio, and the implied stub, are now at all-time lows.
Preceding my comments on China Conch/Anhui are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. 
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


<ul>
<li>
Australian tax-loss selling is a thing. Retail investors will take gains on things that run up in price, or get taken over, then look for losses.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-conch-venture-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19943:1" rel="noopener">China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-conch-cement-co-ltd-094855ab-abec-4b71-956b-5bfc85e22fdd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:389:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Conch Cement (600585 CH)</a> ratio is at an all-time low. The implied stub is re-testing its all-time low.</li>
<li>Historically, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon (7751 JP)</a>'s buybacks are aggressive. It may pay to observe market data to see when they are done. It may also pay to look at peer outperformance cycles. </li>
</ul>



Australian tax-loss selling is a thing. Retail investors will take gains on things that run up in price, or get taken over, then look for losses.
The China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK) / Anhui Conch Cement (600585 CH) ratio is at an all-time low. The implied stub is re-testing its all-time low.
Historically, Canon (7751 JP)'s buybacks are aggressive. It may pay to observe market data to see when they are done. It may also pay to look at peer outperformance cycles. 


Last Week in Event SPACE:Tax-Loss Selling In Australia, China Conch/Anhui Conch, Canon, Rakuten

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-conch-venture-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19943:1" rel="noopener">China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-conch-cement-co-ltd-094855ab-abec-4b71-956b-5bfc85e22fdd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:389:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Conch Cement (600585 CH)</a> ratio is at an all-time low. The implied stub is re-testing its all-time low.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on China Conch/Anhui are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. </li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


The China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK) / Anhui Conch Cement (600585 CH) ratio is at an all-time low. The implied stub is re-testing its all-time low.
Preceding my comments on China Conch/Anhui are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. 
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: China Conch Trades Cheap. As Does Anhui

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>After one month from the March batch of Hong Kong Connect inclusion, we provide an analysis on the stock inclusion for 24 stocks. </li>
<li>We analysed the inclusion by performance post announcement, performance post inclusion, inflows and analyst coverage.</li>
<li>This time we observe outperformance when inclusion took place but not between announcement and inclusion. Southbound trade account for a significant portion of the trading volumes, still.</li>
</ul>


After one month from the March batch of Hong Kong Connect inclusion, we provide an analysis on the stock inclusion for 24 stocks. 
We analysed the inclusion by performance post announcement, performance post inclusion, inflows and analyst coverage.
This time we observe outperformance when inclusion took place but not between announcement and inclusion. Southbound trade account for a significant portion of the trading volumes, still.


HK Connect: Mar '22 Inclusion Post-Event Analysis

Hong Kong

China Conch Environment Protection Holdings (587 HK)

China Conch Environment Protection Holdings

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China Conch Environment Protection Holdings (587 HK)

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March

There could be nearly 58 adds/deletes for the HSCI in September. That will trigger changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and increase flows...

Brian Freitas

StubWorld: China Conch Plumbs New Lows

If you think the negatives are largely factored into Anhui, go outright long in Anhui. However, China’s sluggish economic growth and the slow...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE:Tax-Loss Selling In Australia, China Conch/Anhui Conch, Canon, Rakuten

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: China Conch Trades Cheap. As Does Anhui

Anhui appears inexpensive to peers. And with the As trading slightly "richer" to the Hs here - plus the Hs carry a 7.5% yield, I'd be inclined to...

David Blennerhassett

HK Connect: Mar '22 Inclusion Post-Event Analysis

We analyzed the performance of stocks for the March 2023 batch of Hong Kong Connect inclusion, including the performance post announcement, post...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)