Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has been in the Frenzy territory for several weeks, indicating at least a temporary pullback in the stock markets. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a>.</li>
<li>The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, the Equity Put/Call Ratio, the Relative Strength Index (RSI, the SKEW Index, and ETF and Mutual Fund Flows all push the index toward Frenzy.</li>
<li>Together with slower economic momentum globally and pockets of elevated stock market valuation, like US tech stocks, downside looms.</li>
</ul>


Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has been in the Frenzy territory for several weeks, indicating at least a temporary pullback in the stock markets. S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX).
The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, the Equity Put/Call Ratio, the Relative Strength Index (RSI, the SKEW Index, and ETF and Mutual Fund Flows all push the index toward Frenzy.
Together with slower economic momentum globally and pockets of elevated stock market valuation, like US tech stocks, downside looms.


This Is a ‘Frenzy’ Market, and the Rally Should End Now!

<ul>
<li>The MOVE/VIX ratio has spiked again, surging to above 8, close to a level two standard deviations above average.</li>
<li>Equities have underperformed Treasuries most of the time when the MOVE/VIX ratio exceeds 7.0.</li>
<li>Should the VIX Index rise above 20 from here, the outlook for equities becomes even more unfavorable relative to Treasuries.</li>
</ul>


The MOVE/VIX ratio has spiked again, surging to above 8, close to a level two standard deviations above average.
Equities have underperformed Treasuries most of the time when the MOVE/VIX ratio exceeds 7.0.
Should the VIX Index rise above 20 from here, the outlook for equities becomes even more unfavorable relative to Treasuries.


Cross-Asset Volatility: Flashing Red for Equities

<ul>
<li>The measures taken by the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury do not protect against idiosyncratic bank runs like the one that hit First Republic Bank.</li>
<li>Big Tech is beating big time, but earnings and sales growth have declined significantly in recent quarters, while valuation increased.</li>
<li>Should volatility spike, which is definitely on the table, Systematic Macro investors will have to sell up to USD 300 billion in equities.</li>
</ul>


The measures taken by the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury do not protect against idiosyncratic bank runs like the one that hit First Republic Bank.
Big Tech is beating big time, but earnings and sales growth have declined significantly in recent quarters, while valuation increased.
Should volatility spike, which is definitely on the table, Systematic Macro investors will have to sell up to USD 300 billion in equities.


Weekly Market Monitor (17) - Banking Anxiety – Back with a Vengeance!

<ul>
<li>Positioning has been one of the few positives for equities in recent weeks, but a storm is brewing.</li>
<li>Systematic Macro investors have been absorbing USD 170 billion in global equities in recent weeks for just one reason, volatility.</li>
<li>Should equities drop to their October lows, our charts suggest volatility-related equity selling pressure of USD 300 billion. We remain underweight equities.</li>
</ul>


Positioning has been one of the few positives for equities in recent weeks, but a storm is brewing.
Systematic Macro investors have been absorbing USD 170 billion in global equities in recent weeks for just one reason, volatility.
Should equities drop to their October lows, our charts suggest volatility-related equity selling pressure of USD 300 billion. We remain underweight equities.


Systematic Macro Investors Represent USD 300 Billion in Selling Pressure!

<ul>
<li>US retail sales fell 1.0% in March, the fourth decline in the last five months. We expect the downturn in the housing market to cause another dip in consumer sentiment.</li>
<li>Our earnings-per-share vs. P/E ratio analysis provides little upside. It will demand higher valuations and/or positive earnings growth to allow for meaningful upside.</li>
<li>Sentiment has been the key market driver in recent weeks. But with the VIX Index down to 17 in a weakening macro environment, the impulse may be fading.</li>
</ul>


US retail sales fell 1.0% in March, the fourth decline in the last five months. We expect the downturn in the housing market to cause another dip in consumer sentiment.
Our earnings-per-share vs. P/E ratio analysis provides little upside. It will demand higher valuations and/or positive earnings growth to allow for meaningful upside.
Sentiment has been the key market driver in recent weeks. But with the VIX Index down to 17 in a weakening macro environment, the impulse may be fading.


Changes in Portfolio Weights: Lowering the Weight of Equities

United States

The VIX Index is a financial benchmark designed to be an up-to-the-minute market estimate of the expected volatility of the S&P 500® Index, and is calculated by using the midpoint of real-time S&P 500 Index (SPX) option bid/ask quotes.

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX INDEX)

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX INDEX)

This Is a ‘Frenzy’ Market, and the Rally Should End Now!

Our Fear & Frenzy Sentiment Index has remained in 'Frenzy' territory for over two weeks. Based on history, this suggests a pullback in equity...

Jeroen Blokland

Cross-Asset Volatility: Flashing Red for Equities

The MOVE/VIX ratio has surged again, reflecting heightened volatility in the Treasury market compared to equities. This volatility discrepancy is...

Jeroen Blokland

Weekly Market Monitor (17) - Banking Anxiety – Back with a Vengeance!

Welcome to the weekly Market Monitor, keeping you updated on the week’s most important charts and developments in financial markets.

Jeroen Blokland

Systematic Macro Investors Represent USD 300 Billion in Selling Pressure!

When volatility rises, as several indicators suggest, Systematic Macro investors will be forced to dump billions of stocks onto the market.

Jeroen Blokland

Changes in Portfolio Weights: Lowering the Weight of Equities

We lower the weight of equities in our Global Multi-Asset Portfolios as the catalysts for an extension of the rally are fading.

Jeroen Blokland