IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Since the offer announcement, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a>/JPB’s shares have risen by 4.4%. On 1 March, JPB completed the ToSTNeT-3 buyback by acquiring 59.5 million shares for JPY70 billion.</li>
<li>To understand JPB's trading pattern, it is instructive to look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:840:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)</a>/JPI’s 2019 offering and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a>/ JPH’s 2021 offering.</li>
<li>JPB’s shares should follow the trading pattern playbook of JPI’s 2019 and JPH’s 2021 offerings and start trading below the pre-offer last trading price during the subscription period.</li>
</ul>


Since the offer announcement, Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)/JPB’s shares have risen by 4.4%. On 1 March, JPB completed the ToSTNeT-3 buyback by acquiring 59.5 million shares for JPY70 billion.
To understand JPB's trading pattern, it is instructive to look at Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)/JPI’s 2019 offering and Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)/ JPH’s 2021 offering.
JPB’s shares should follow the trading pattern playbook of JPI’s 2019 and JPH’s 2021 offerings and start trading below the pre-offer last trading price during the subscription period.


Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): The Current Playbook

SBI Sumishin Net Bank  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-sumishin-net-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34572:1" rel="noopener">SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP)</a>, an online bank in Japan, has revived its listing plans to raise up to US$440 million (vs the 2022 target of US$1 billion).</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sbi-sumishin-net-bank-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:96979" rel="noopener">SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO: The Investment Case</a></strong></em>. The shares will be listed on 29 March.</li>
<li>In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that SBI Sumishin Net Bank is fairly valued at the IPO reference price of JPY1,260. We would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP), an online bank in Japan, has revived its listing plans to raise up to US$440 million (vs the 2022 target of US$1 billion).
We previously discussed the IPO in SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO: The Investment Case. The shares will be listed on 29 March.
In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that SBI Sumishin Net Bank is fairly valued at the IPO reference price of JPY1,260. We would participate in the IPO.


SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO: Valuation Insights

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-sumishin-net-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34572:1" rel="noopener">SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP)</a>, an online bank in Japan, has revived its listing plans to raise up to US$440 million (vs the 2022 target of US$1 billion). </li>
<li>Founded in 2007, SBI Sumishin Net Bank is owned 50% by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> and 50% by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-mitsui-trust-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19450:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings (8309 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>The investment case rests on market share gains, the rude health of the digital bank segment, the nascent BaaS segment turning profitable and ambitious medium-term goals. </li>
</ul>



SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP), an online bank in Japan, has revived its listing plans to raise up to US$440 million (vs the 2022 target of US$1 billion). 
Founded in 2007, SBI Sumishin Net Bank is owned 50% by SBI Holdings (8473 JP) and 50% by Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings (8309 JP).
The investment case rests on market share gains, the rude health of the digital bank segment, the nascent BaaS segment turning profitable and ambitious medium-term goals. 


SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO: The Investment Case

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a>/JPH has announced the offering of up to 1.1 billion shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a>/JPB to reduce its stake from 89.00% to 59.95%.</li>
<li>JPB will carry out a ToSTNeT-3 buyback (maximum of JPY70 billion) and an on-market buyback (maximum of JPY80 billion). JPH can sell additional shares into the ToSTNeT-3 buyback.</li>
<li>For long-term investors, JPB’s forward P/B of 0.47x and yield of 4.41% are attractive to peers. JPB’s current price ratio is undemanding vs TOPIX Banks ETF and JPH.</li>
</ul>



Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)/JPH has announced the offering of up to 1.1 billion shares in Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)/JPB to reduce its stake from 89.00% to 59.95%.
JPB will carry out a ToSTNeT-3 buyback (maximum of JPY70 billion) and an on-market buyback (maximum of JPY80 billion). JPH can sell additional shares into the ToSTNeT-3 buyback.
For long-term investors, JPB’s forward P/B of 0.47x and yield of 4.41% are attractive to peers. JPB’s current price ratio is undemanding vs TOPIX Banks ETF and JPH.


Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): Japan Post Holdings to Sell Down a Third of Its Stake

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI EAFE ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe that a bearish intermediate-term outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrends remain intact on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).</li>
<li>We would turn bullish only on reversals of those downtrends. With that said, a bear market rally has officially begun, something that we have discussed since our Sept.29 Int'l Compass</li>
<li>We expect to see rallies to their respective YTD downtrends (ACWX, EFA, etc.). We highlight buys that are likely to outperform on this bear market rally.</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe that a bearish intermediate-term outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrends remain intact on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).
We would turn bullish only on reversals of those downtrends. With that said, a bear market rally has officially begun, something that we have discussed since our Sept.29 Int'l Compass
We expect to see rallies to their respective YTD downtrends (ACWX, EFA, etc.). We highlight buys that are likely to outperform on this bear market rally.


Bear Market Rally in Progress as DXY, Global Sovereign 10-Yr Yields Fall; Buy Ideas Within Leaders

Japan

The Chiba Bank, Ltd. is a regional bank based in Chiba Prefecture. The Bank offers general banking services including deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transactions. The Chiba Bank also develops software and provides financial services such as leasing, securities brokerage, letter of credit, and credit cards.

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Chiba Bank (8331 JP)

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): The Current Playbook

JPB’s shares should follow the trading pattern playbook of JPI’s 2019 and JPH’s 2021 offerings and start trading below the pre-offer last trading...

Arun George

SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO: Valuation Insights

In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that SBI Sumishin Net Bank is fairly valued at the IPO reference price of JPY1,260. We...

Arun George

SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO: The Investment Case

The investment case rests on market share gains, the rude health of the digital bank segment, the nascent BaaS segment turning profitable and...

Arun George

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): Japan Post Holdings to Sell Down a Third of Its Stake

JPH aims to lower its stake by up to 59.95% of outstanding shares. JPH will buy back shares to provide partial relief from the selling pressure....

Arun George

Bear Market Rally in Progress as DXY, Global Sovereign 10-Yr Yields Fall; Buy Ideas Within Leaders

Bear Market Rally in Progress as $DXY, Global Sovereign 10-Year Yields Decline. Italy FTSE MIB with a bullish YTD downtrend reversal, Switzerland...

Vermilion Research

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