Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 01/Nov, US crude inventories rose by 2.1m barrels, contrary to expectations of a 0.3m barrel decrease. Gasoline and distillate stocks also bucked forecasts of a decline.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rose 69 Bcf for the week ending 01/Nov, higher than analyst expectations of a 67 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 5.8% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Halliburton missed revenue and EPS estimates by 2.2% and 2.7%. While Aramco beat revenue and EPS estimates by 11.2% and 2.2%. Numerous analysts upgraded their 12-month PT for Chevron.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 01/Nov, US crude inventories rose by 2.1m barrels, contrary to expectations of a 0.3m barrel decrease. Gasoline and distillate stocks also bucked forecasts of a decline.
US natural gas inventories rose 69 Bcf for the week ending 01/Nov, higher than analyst expectations of a 67 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 5.8% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Halliburton missed revenue and EPS estimates by 2.2% and 2.7%. While Aramco beat revenue and EPS estimates by 11.2% and 2.2%. Numerous analysts upgraded their 12-month PT for Chevron.


[ETP 2024/45] WTI Drops on Trump’s Win and Rising Inventories, Henry Hub Gains on Supply Disruptions

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Donald Trump is the first candidate to win non-consecutive terms as President since Grover Cleveland 132 years ago. Winning the popular vote strengthens his mandate, with Senate/House also Republican. </li>
<li>Trump proposes to cut the corporate tax rate to 15%, make his income tax cuts permanent, de-regulate energy (and end the Ukraine war). Lower oil prices and faster growth likely. </li>
<li>Lower taxes and regulation, hence lower inflation/rates, would provide a fillip to equities. Conventional energy, banks/PE would win. India, Japan, SKorea, Germany, Russia would be winners, UK/NATO the losers. </li>
</ul>


Donald Trump is the first candidate to win non-consecutive terms as President since Grover Cleveland 132 years ago. Winning the popular vote strengthens his mandate, with Senate/House also Republican. 
Trump proposes to cut the corporate tax rate to 15%, make his income tax cuts permanent, de-regulate energy (and end the Ukraine war). Lower oil prices and faster growth likely. 
Lower taxes and regulation, hence lower inflation/rates, would provide a fillip to equities. Conventional energy, banks/PE would win. India, Japan, SKorea, Germany, Russia would be winners, UK/NATO the losers. 


US: Trump Sweep of WH, Senate, House Clears the Way for Growth and Lower Brent

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 25/Oct, US crude inventories fell by 0.5m barrels, against expectations of a 1.5m barrel increase. Gasoline stocks also bucked forecasts of a build. </li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rose 78 Bcf for the week ending 25/Oct, marginally lower than analyst expectations of a 79 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 4.8% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Shell and Chevron exceeded both revenue and EPS estimates, while Exxon and BP topped EPS but missed on revenue. TotalEnergies beat revenue expectations but fell short on EPS.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 25/Oct, US crude inventories fell by 0.5m barrels, against expectations of a 1.5m barrel increase. Gasoline stocks also bucked forecasts of a build. 
US natural gas inventories rose 78 Bcf for the week ending 25/Oct, marginally lower than analyst expectations of a 79 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 4.8% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Shell and Chevron exceeded both revenue and EPS estimates, while Exxon and BP topped EPS but missed on revenue. TotalEnergies beat revenue expectations but fell short on EPS.


[ETP 2024/44] WTI Rallies on Healthier Demand Outlook; Henry Hub Stumbles Under Weather Woes

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Exxon Mobil will report Q3 earnings on 01/Nov, with analysts expecting a 6.3% YoY rise in revenue but an 11% fall in EPS, due to weaker crude oil prices.</li>
<li>Exxon Mobil's OI PCR at 0.69 signals neutral sentiment, while an 84% IV percentile indicates high volatility. Its volume PCR is also in the neutral territory.</li>
<li>Exxon Mobil’s short interest rose from the previous biweekly period, reaching 41.27 million shares as of 15/Oct—a 6.3% increase from 30/Sep and a 16.5% rise since 15/Jul.</li>
</ul>


Exxon Mobil will report Q3 earnings on 01/Nov, with analysts expecting a 6.3% YoY rise in revenue but an 11% fall in EPS, due to weaker crude oil prices.
Exxon Mobil's OI PCR at 0.69 signals neutral sentiment, while an 84% IV percentile indicates high volatility. Its volume PCR is also in the neutral territory.
Exxon Mobil’s short interest rose from the previous biweekly period, reaching 41.27 million shares as of 15/Oct—a 6.3% increase from 30/Sep and a 16.5% rise since 15/Jul.


[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Exxon Mobil OI PCR Neutral While Short Interest Rises

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 11/Oct, US crude inventories decreased by 2.2m barrels, diverging from expectations of a 1.8m barrel build. Additionally, gasoline and distillate stockpiles also declined more than anticipated.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rose 76 Bcf for the week ending 11/Oct, lower than analyst expectations of an 80 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 4.6% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Halliburton, Schlumberger, and Occidental’s target prices were cut. Notably, analysts kept their Buy ratings on Reliance despite its net profit falling by 4.8% YoY.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 11/Oct, US crude inventories decreased by 2.2m barrels, diverging from expectations of a 1.8m barrel build. Additionally, gasoline and distillate stockpiles also declined more than anticipated.
US natural gas inventories rose 76 Bcf for the week ending 11/Oct, lower than analyst expectations of an 80 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 4.6% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Halliburton, Schlumberger, and Occidental’s target prices were cut. Notably, analysts kept their Buy ratings on Reliance despite its net profit falling by 4.8% YoY.


[ETP 2024/42] WTI Falls as Supply Disruption Fears Subside, Nat-Gas Slides on Weaker Demand Outlook

United States

Chevron Corporation is an integrated energy company with operations in countries located around the world.  The Company produces and transports crude oil and natural gas.  Chevron also refines, markets, and distributes fuels as well as is involved in chemical operations, mining operations, power generation and energy services.

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Chevron Corp (CVX US)

[ETP 2024/45] WTI Drops on Trump’s Win and Rising Inventories, Henry Hub Gains on Supply Disruptions

US crude and natural gas inventories rose above expectations, while Halliburton missed estimates and Aramco exceeded them. Analysts upgrade target...

Mint Finance

US: Trump Sweep of WH, Senate, House Clears the Way for Growth and Lower Brent

Trump's re-election strengthens mandate with Republican control of Senate/House. Proposed tax cuts, deregulation to boost economy/equities and...

Prasenjit K. Basu

[ETP 2024/44] WTI Rallies on Healthier Demand Outlook; Henry Hub Stumbles Under Weather Woes

US crude and gasoline inventories defy expectations, while natural gas storage sees above normal increase. Shell & Chevron outperform revenue and...

Mint Finance

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Exxon Mobil OI PCR Neutral While Short Interest Rises

Exxon Mobil’s Q3 revenue is expected to rise but its EPS is anticipated to fall due to weak refining margins. OI and volume PCR imply neutral...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/42] WTI Falls as Supply Disruption Fears Subside, Nat-Gas Slides on Weaker Demand Outlook

US oil inventories see a surprise fall, while US nat-gas stock rises less than expected. Chevron sees a target price upgrade while HSBC expects a...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[ETP 2024/45] WTI Drops on Trump’s Win and Rising Inventories, Henry Hub Gains on Supply Disruptions

​US crude and natural gas inventories rose above expectations, while Halliburton missed estimates and Aramco exceeded them. Analysts upgrade target...

Mint Finance

US: Trump Sweep of WH, Senate, House Clears the Way for Growth and Lower Brent

​Trump's re-election strengthens mandate with Republican control of Senate/House. Proposed tax cuts, deregulation to boost economy/equities and...

Prasenjit K. Basu

[ETP 2024/44] WTI Rallies on Healthier Demand Outlook; Henry Hub Stumbles Under Weather Woes

​US crude and gasoline inventories defy expectations, while natural gas storage sees above normal increase. Shell & Chevron outperform revenue and...

Mint Finance

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Exxon Mobil OI PCR Neutral While Short Interest Rises

Exxon Mobil’s Q3 revenue is expected to rise but its EPS is anticipated to fall due to weak refining margins. OI and volume PCR imply neutral...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/42] WTI Falls as Supply Disruption Fears Subside, Nat-Gas Slides on Weaker Demand Outlook

​US oil inventories see a surprise fall, while US nat-gas stock rises less than expected. Chevron sees a target price upgrade while HSBC expects a...

Mint Finance

US crude and natural gas inventories rose above expectations, while Halliburton missed estimates and Aramco exceeded them. Analysts upgrade target...

Trump's re-election strengthens mandate with Republican control of Senate/House. Proposed tax cuts, deregulation to boost economy/equities and...

US crude and gasoline inventories defy expectations, while natural gas storage sees above normal increase. Shell & Chevron outperform revenue and...

US oil inventories see a surprise fall, while US nat-gas stock rises less than expected. Chevron sees a target price upgrade while HSBC expects a...