European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Conocophillips is set to acquire Marathon Oil in an all-stock deal (0.2550 COP US per 1 MRO US) valued at $22.5 billion ($30.33/share), including $5,379 million in net debt.</li>
<li>Most of the frenzy in the US oil industry has focused on the consolidation within the Permian Basin, a maturing region that offers opportunities to reduce costs and increase profitability.</li>
<li>The acquisition of Marathon will add highly complementary acreage to ConocoPhillips’ existing U.S. onshore portfolio. Spread as of 4 June is 2.6%/4.7% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by late Q4).</li>
</ul>


Conocophillips is set to acquire Marathon Oil in an all-stock deal (0.2550 COP US per 1 MRO US) valued at $22.5 billion ($30.33/share), including $5,379 million in net debt.
Most of the frenzy in the US oil industry has focused on the consolidation within the Permian Basin, a maturing region that offers opportunities to reduce costs and increase profitability.
The acquisition of Marathon will add highly complementary acreage to ConocoPhillips’ existing U.S. onshore portfolio. Spread as of 4 June is 2.6%/4.7% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by late Q4).


ConocoPhillips/Marathon Oil and Shale Consolidation

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This paper contrasts performance of integrated oil exploration and refining firms ("Explorers") with oil refineries ("Refiners").</li>
<li>Hypothesis is that Refiners outperform Explorers when the crack spread widens. Back testing based on select firms proves the hypothesis.</li>
<li>This paper posits that Refiners will outdo Explorers when crack spreads tear based on historical performance.</li>
</ul>


This paper contrasts performance of integrated oil exploration and refining firms ("Explorers") with oil refineries ("Refiners").
Hypothesis is that Refiners outperform Explorers when the crack spread widens. Back testing based on select firms proves the hypothesis.
This paper posits that Refiners will outdo Explorers when crack spreads tear based on historical performance.


Widening Crack Spreads Enable Oil Refiners to Outdo Oil Explorers

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business, Auctus Advisors

Auctus Advisors

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business

Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector. The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy. Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors. Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.

<ul>
<li>ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$1.00 per share: Restarting production at Anshof – The Permanent Production Facility (PPF), with a capacity of 3,000 bbl/d of liquids, has been commissioned and the Anshof-3 well has recommenced production at a rate of 134 bbl/d with no water.</li>
<li>The operation has been undertaken in line with expectations and within budget.</li>
<li>The oil production rate at Anshof-3 is 16% above the rate prior to shut-in.</li>
</ul>


ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$1.00 per share: Restarting production at Anshof – The Permanent Production Facility (PPF), with a capacity of 3,000 bbl/d of liquids, has been commissioned and the Anshof-3 well has recommenced production at a rate of 134 bbl/d with no water.
The operation has been undertaken in line with expectations and within budget.
The oil production rate at Anshof-3 is 16% above the rate prior to shut-in.


Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Chevron Corporation delivered a mixed set of results for the previous quarter, with revenues above the analyst consensus.</li><li>The company unveiled a robust quarter marked by formidable earnings, cash flow, and ROCE.</li><li>Solid cash flow facilitated the realization of financial priorities, allowing for the repurchase of Chevron shares exceeding $3 billion, even amidst PDC transaction restrictions.</li></ul>

Chevron Corporation delivered a mixed set of results for the previous quarter, with revenues above the analyst consensus.The company unveiled a robust quarter marked by formidable earnings, cash flow, and ROCE.Solid cash flow facilitated the realization of financial priorities, allowing for the repurchase of Chevron shares exceeding $3 billion, even amidst PDC transaction restrictions.

Chevron Corporation: Will The Hess Acquisition Be A Game Changer? - Major Drivers

<ul><li>Chevron Corporation delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter.</li><li>While the company faced challenges, with adjusted earnings down $5.6 billion compared to the same quarter the previous year, it also achieved notable successes.</li><li>Lower refining margins impacted adjusted downstream earnings, and there was a decrease in upstream earnings primarily due to lower realizations.</li></ul>

Chevron Corporation delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter.While the company faced challenges, with adjusted earnings down $5.6 billion compared to the same quarter the previous year, it also achieved notable successes.Lower refining margins impacted adjusted downstream earnings, and there was a decrease in upstream earnings primarily due to lower realizations.

Chevron Corporation: Is The Strategic Acquisition Of PDC Energy A Major Enhancement Of The US Portfolio? – Key Drivers

United States

Chevron Corporation is an integrated energy company with operations in countries located around the world.  The Company produces and transports crude oil and natural gas.  Chevron also refines, markets, and distributes fuels as well as is involved in chemical operations, mining operations, power generation and energy services.

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Chevron Corp (CVX US)

ConocoPhillips/Marathon Oil and Shale Consolidation

Conocophillips to acquire Marathon Oil in $22.5 billion all-stock deal, focusing on consolidation in Permian Basin for cost reduction and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Widening Crack Spreads Enable Oil Refiners to Outdo Oil Explorers

Pure play crude oil refining and marketing firms outperformed integrated oil E&P companies during times of widening crack oil spreads.

Mint Finance

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 12/04/2024

ADX anticipates increasing production from the well to 150 bbl/d. No permanent staff will be required on the site, which should reduce opex.

Auctus Advisors

Chevron Corporation: Will The Hess Acquisition Be A Game Changer? - Major Drivers

Chevron Corporation delivered a mixed set of results for the previous quarter, with revenues above the analyst consensus. The company unveiled a...

Baptista Research

Chevron Corporation: Is The Strategic Acquisition Of PDC Energy A Major Enhancement Of The US Portfolio? – Key Drivers

Chevron Corporation delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter. While the company faced challenges, with adjusted earnings down $5.6...

Baptista Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

ConocoPhillips/Marathon Oil and Shale Consolidation

​Conocophillips to acquire Marathon Oil in $22.5 billion all-stock deal, focusing on consolidation in Permian Basin for cost reduction and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Widening Crack Spreads Enable Oil Refiners to Outdo Oil Explorers

Pure play crude oil refining and marketing firms outperformed integrated oil E&P companies during times of widening crack oil spreads.

Mint Finance

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 12/04/2024

ADX anticipates increasing production from the well to 150 bbl/d. No permanent staff will be required on the site, which should reduce opex.

Auctus Advisors

Chevron Corporation: Will The Hess Acquisition Be A Game Changer? - Major Drivers

Chevron Corporation delivered a mixed set of results for the previous quarter, with revenues above the analyst consensus. The company unveiled a...

Baptista Research

Chevron Corporation: Is The Strategic Acquisition Of PDC Energy A Major Enhancement Of The US Portfolio? – Key Drivers

Chevron Corporation delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter. While the company faced challenges, with adjusted earnings down $5.6...

Baptista Research

Conocophillips to acquire Marathon Oil in $22.5 billion all-stock deal, focusing on consolidation in Permian Basin for cost reduction and...