Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>An unexpected increase in US crude oil and gasoline inventories pushed oil prices down but the ongoing conflicts capped the downside.</li>
<li>Growing natural gas output dampens Henry Hub’s uptrend. Europe will ban transshipments of Russian LNG in its ports from March 2025.</li>
<li>Chevron's Wheatstone LNG facility in Australia resumed full production. Wells Fargo lowered its target price on Shell but raised it on Occidental.</li>
</ul>


An unexpected increase in US crude oil and gasoline inventories pushed oil prices down but the ongoing conflicts capped the downside.
Growing natural gas output dampens Henry Hub’s uptrend. Europe will ban transshipments of Russian LNG in its ports from March 2025.
Chevron's Wheatstone LNG facility in Australia resumed full production. Wells Fargo lowered its target price on Shell but raised it on Occidental.


[ETP 26/2024] Oil Prices Drop on Surprise Inventory Build; Oil Majors Slide but Retain Gains

<ul>
<li>The gap between OPEC and IEA’s oil demand forecasts widened: OPEC kept its 2024 forecast at 2.25m bpd, while IEA lowered its forecast to 960k bpd from 1.1m bpd.</li>
<li>Europe’s attempt to cut Russian LNG imports grows stronger, as the French Senate Committee recommends cutting Russian dependence.</li>
<li>Since 17/June, Energy majors began recovering. Berkshire increased its holdings in Occidental, while Shell expanded its LNG market access by acquiring Pavilion Energy.</li>
</ul>


The gap between OPEC and IEA’s oil demand forecasts widened: OPEC kept its 2024 forecast at 2.25m bpd, while IEA lowered its forecast to 960k bpd from 1.1m bpd.
Europe’s attempt to cut Russian LNG imports grows stronger, as the French Senate Committee recommends cutting Russian dependence.
Since 17/June, Energy majors began recovering. Berkshire increased its holdings in Occidental, while Shell expanded its LNG market access by acquiring Pavilion Energy.


[ETP 25/2024] Energy Majors Bounce Back; Their Expansion Spree Continues

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>The rankings used for the June 2024 index rebal event will be decided based on the opening prices tomorrow (6th June 2024).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a final look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the rankings for the upcoming review.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
The rankings used for the June 2024 index rebal event will be decided based on the opening prices tomorrow (6th June 2024).
In this insight, we take a final look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the rankings for the upcoming review.


Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Jun 24: Ranks to Be Finalized Tomorrow; 2 Changes Possible

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Conocophillips is set to acquire Marathon Oil in an all-stock deal (0.2550 COP US per 1 MRO US) valued at $22.5 billion ($30.33/share), including $5,379 million in net debt.</li>
<li>Most of the frenzy in the US oil industry has focused on the consolidation within the Permian Basin, a maturing region that offers opportunities to reduce costs and increase profitability.</li>
<li>The acquisition of Marathon will add highly complementary acreage to ConocoPhillips’ existing U.S. onshore portfolio. Spread as of 4 June is 2.6%/4.7% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by late Q4).</li>
</ul>


Conocophillips is set to acquire Marathon Oil in an all-stock deal (0.2550 COP US per 1 MRO US) valued at $22.5 billion ($30.33/share), including $5,379 million in net debt.
Most of the frenzy in the US oil industry has focused on the consolidation within the Permian Basin, a maturing region that offers opportunities to reduce costs and increase profitability.
The acquisition of Marathon will add highly complementary acreage to ConocoPhillips’ existing U.S. onshore portfolio. Spread as of 4 June is 2.6%/4.7% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by late Q4).


ConocoPhillips/Marathon Oil and Shale Consolidation

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This paper contrasts performance of integrated oil exploration and refining firms ("Explorers") with oil refineries ("Refiners").</li>
<li>Hypothesis is that Refiners outperform Explorers when the crack spread widens. Back testing based on select firms proves the hypothesis.</li>
<li>This paper posits that Refiners will outdo Explorers when crack spreads tear based on historical performance.</li>
</ul>


This paper contrasts performance of integrated oil exploration and refining firms ("Explorers") with oil refineries ("Refiners").
Hypothesis is that Refiners outperform Explorers when the crack spread widens. Back testing based on select firms proves the hypothesis.
This paper posits that Refiners will outdo Explorers when crack spreads tear based on historical performance.


Widening Crack Spreads Enable Oil Refiners to Outdo Oil Explorers

United States

Chevron Corporation is an integrated energy company with operations in countries located around the world.  The Company produces and transports crude oil and natural gas.  Chevron also refines, markets, and distributes fuels as well as is involved in chemical operations, mining operations, power generation and energy services.

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Chevron Corp (CVX US)

[ETP 26/2024] Oil Prices Drop on Surprise Inventory Build; Oil Majors Slide but Retain Gains

Inventory build-up in the US points to signs of weaker-than-expected summer demand, Nat-gas prices hit by rising output. Uptrend in oil & gas...

Mint Finance

[ETP 25/2024] Energy Majors Bounce Back; Their Expansion Spree Continues

Oil prices rise on seasonal demand growth and Middle East conflicts. Henry Hub slides on the forecast of cooler temperatures next week. Energy...

Mint Finance

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Jun 24: Ranks to Be Finalized Tomorrow; 2 Changes Possible

The S&P500 review will be announced on Friday. The reference price used will be Thursday's opening price. We expect up to two changes, but would...

Travis Lundy

ConocoPhillips/Marathon Oil and Shale Consolidation

Conocophillips to acquire Marathon Oil in $22.5 billion all-stock deal, focusing on consolidation in Permian Basin for cost reduction and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Widening Crack Spreads Enable Oil Refiners to Outdo Oil Explorers

Pure play crude oil refining and marketing firms outperformed integrated oil E&P companies during times of widening crack oil spreads.

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[ETP 26/2024] Oil Prices Drop on Surprise Inventory Build; Oil Majors Slide but Retain Gains

Inventory build-up in the US points to signs of weaker-than-expected summer demand, Nat-gas prices hit by rising output. Uptrend in oil & gas...

Mint Finance

[ETP 25/2024] Energy Majors Bounce Back; Their Expansion Spree Continues

Oil prices rise on seasonal demand growth and Middle East conflicts. Henry Hub slides on the forecast of cooler temperatures next week. Energy...

Mint Finance

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Jun 24: Ranks to Be Finalized Tomorrow; 2 Changes Possible

The S&P500 review will be announced on Friday. The reference price used will be Thursday's opening price. We expect up to two changes, but would...

Travis Lundy

ConocoPhillips/Marathon Oil and Shale Consolidation

​Conocophillips to acquire Marathon Oil in $22.5 billion all-stock deal, focusing on consolidation in Permian Basin for cost reduction and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Widening Crack Spreads Enable Oil Refiners to Outdo Oil Explorers

Pure play crude oil refining and marketing firms outperformed integrated oil E&P companies during times of widening crack oil spreads.

Mint Finance

Conocophillips to acquire Marathon Oil in $22.5 billion all-stock deal, focusing on consolidation in Permian Basin for cost reduction and...