Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Despite the bulls still being in control, we have several ongoing concerns and we cannot rule out the potential for a pullback. Below we highlight developments that are inconsistent with a major bottom in equities that suggests the broad equity market is not yet out of the woods.  In fact, during today's action, the 2760 support level on the S&amp;P 500 briefly held but ultimately gave way. With the SPX holding below 2760 today, we are looking for downside targets of 2650 first, and then potentially 2470 if that fails to hold.</p>

Despite the bulls still being in control, we have several ongoing concerns and we cannot rule out the potential for a pullback. Below we highlight developments that are inconsistent with a major bottom in equities that suggests the broad equity market is not yet out of the woods.  In fact, during today's action, the 2760 support level on the S&amp;P 500 briefly held but ultimately gave way. With the SPX holding below 2760 today, we are looking for downside targets of 2650 first, and then potentially 2470 if that fails to hold.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Several Indicators Suggest a Pullback Likely

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><p>In our weekly notes, we’ve been circling around an insight that is beginning to crystallize. Covid 19 is an accelerator of secular shifts in consumer preferences that is magnifying (or will magnify) those business models most equipped to benefit from them.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div></div></div>

In our weekly notes, we’ve been circling around an insight that is beginning to crystallize. Covid 19 is an accelerator of secular shifts in consumer preferences that is magnifying (or will magnify) those business models most equipped to benefit from them.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Coronavirus as Secular Accelerator II: US Media/Telco Edition

<p>Continued encouraging COVID-19 news and accommodative moves by the Fed have allowed the bulls to remain in control while short-term support on the S&amp;P 500 held near 2,450. While the bulls remain in control in the short-term, we continue to believe the broad equity market is not yet out of the woods and remains vulnerable -- particularly as Wall Street sentiment has flipped bullish. In today’s report we highlight attractive stocks from a relative strength perspective across Sectors.</p>

Continued encouraging COVID-19 news and accommodative moves by the Fed have allowed the bulls to remain in control while short-term support on the S&amp;P 500 held near 2,450. While the bulls remain in control in the short-term, we continue to believe the broad equity market is not yet out of the woods and remains vulnerable -- particularly as Wall Street sentiment has flipped bullish. In today’s report we highlight attractive stocks from a relative strength perspective across Sectors.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bulls Still In Driver’s Seat, But For How Long?

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We write this note as we see US futures trading down close to 5%. So...there is a good chance Disney becomes even more attractive tomorrow. ;)</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

We write this note as we see US futures trading down close to 5%. So...there is a good chance Disney becomes even more attractive tomorrow. ;)Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

TMT Corona Virus Selloff Opportunities: Disney

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Event-Driven

<p>Sprint shares now trade at a 27% discount to the value implied in their T Mobile merger agreement. With federal regulatory approvals secured, that seems steep but it more likely reflects a potential re-pricing of the deal. Unfortunately for Sprint shareholders, including Softbank, the original business agreement lapsed 29 October even as Sprint financial results have worsened and an undefined regulatory liability hangs the company. We think the combination is enough to push T Mobile and parent Deutsche Telekom to push for a lower price especially as a lack of buyers, time and willingness to stand alone leave Sprint and Softbank with few alternatives. As a result, even at that 27% discount, we would be cautious on Sprint shares.  </p>

Sprint shares now trade at a 27% discount to the value implied in their T Mobile merger agreement. With federal regulatory approvals secured, that seems steep but it more likely reflects a potential re-pricing of the deal. Unfortunately for Sprint shareholders, including Softbank, the original business agreement lapsed 29 October even as Sprint financial results have worsened and an undefined regulatory liability hangs the company. We think the combination is enough to push T Mobile and parent Deutsche Telekom to push for a lower price especially as a lack of buyers, time and willingness to stand alone leave Sprint and Softbank with few alternatives. As a result, even at that 27% discount, we would be cautious on Sprint shares.  

Sprint/T Mobile Merger: Don't Be Surprised If This Deal Is Re-Priced

United States

The Trade Desk, Inc. operates as an advertising technology company. The Company offers online advertising platform that manages display, social, mobile, and video advertising campaigns. Trade Desk serves customers worldwide.

Fox Corporation operates as an entertainment company. The Company produces and licenses news, sports, and entertainment content for distribution through cable television systems, direct broadcast satellite operators, telecommunications companies, and online video distributors. Fox also manages broadcast studios, theaters, editing bays, sound stages, and other production facilities.

News Corporation operates in the publishing industry. The Company provides publications consisting of newspapers, magazines, books and promotional inserts.

John Wiley & Sons, Inc. publishes print and electronic products. The Company specializes in scientific, technical, and medical books and journals, as well as professional and consumer books and subscription services. Wiley also provides textbooks and educational materials.

Magnite, Inc. provides online advertising solutions. The Company offers real-time cloud and big data computing systems. Magnite serves customers worldwide.

Gannett Co., Inc. operates as a local newspaper company. The Company publishes news through storytelling and events that connect readers and communities, as well as focuses on business practices for sourcing, consumption, and waste. Gannett serves customers in the United States.

Altice USA, Inc. operates as a telecommunication and media company. The Company offers digital cable television, high-speed broadband and ultra-HD video, internet, local news and voice offerings, data, and digital advertising solutions. Altice USA serves customers in the United States.

Snap Inc. provides technology and social media services. The Company develops mobile camera application products and services that allow users to send and receive photos, drawings, text, and videos. Snap serves customers worldwide.

Pinterest, Inc. operates and maintains social networking site. The Company provides online venue for personal photos, ideas, oddities, decorations, places to visit, recipes, and other items. Pinterest serves customers worldwide.

World Wrestling Entertainment, Inc. operates as a media and entertainment company. The Company offers live wrestling events, television programming, music publishing, advertising, licensing, and home video streaming services. World Wrestling distributes its programs worldwide in various languages.

WPP PLC operates a communications services group. The Company provides operations encompass advertising, media investment management, consultancy, public relations, healthcare and specialist communications, and branding and identity services. WPP serves customers worldwide.

Vivendi, through its subsidiaries, conducts operations ranging from music, games and television to film and telecommunications.  The Company provides digital and pay television services, sells music compact discs (CDs), develops and distributes interactive entertainment, and operates mobile and fixed-line telecommunications.

Kabel Deutschland Holding AG, through its subsidiary, is a cable operator. The Company offers its customers analog and digital TV, broadband Internet and fixed line phone services via cable as well mobile services in cooperation with an industry partner.

Shandong Publishing & Media Co., Ltd offers publishing services. The Company publishes and sells books, textbooks, magazines, audio visuals, and other products. Shandong Publishing & Media also manufactures and sells papers.

PVR INOX Limited operates cinemas. The Company owns and manages multiplex movie theaters.

Zee Entertainment Enterprises Limited operates as an entertainment company. The Company produces and develops films, serials, game shows, and children's programs. Zee also produces and exports entertainment software for transmission on its ZEE TV channel. Zee Entertainment Enterprises serves customers in India.

Next 15 Group plc is a technology and data-driven growth consultancy firm. The Company uses data to generate the insights that help businesses, optimizes their brand and build the mission-critical digital assets, and help customers redesign their business model and create new ventures to maximize the value of their organization. Next 15 Group serves clients worldwide.

Nintendo Co., Ltd. globally develops, manufactures and sells home-use video game hardware and software in home entertainment business.  The company also produces home-game products including cards.

Sea Limited offers information technology services. The Company provides online personal computer and mobile digital content, e-commerce, and payment platforms. Sea serves customers worldwide.

NetEase, Inc. is an Internet technology company that develops applications, services and other Internet technologies in China. The Company's core businesses consist of email service, web portal and online entertainment, including online gaming services. NetEase also offers online advertising, search, mobile applications and e-commerce.

Charter Communications, Inc. operates as a cable telecommunications company. The Company offers cable broadcasting, internet, voice, and mass media services. Charter Communications serves customers in the United States.

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Charter Communications (CHTR US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Several Indicators Suggest a Pullback Likely

Despite the bulls still being in control, we have several ongoing concerns and we cannot rule out the potential for a pullback. Below we highlight...

Vermilion Research

Coronavirus as Secular Accelerator II: US Media/Telco Edition

In our weekly notes, we’ve been circling around an insight that is beginning to crystallize. Covid 19 is an accelerator of secular shifts in...

Aaron Gabin

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bulls Still In Driver’s Seat, But For How Long?

Continued encouraging COVID-19 news and accommodative moves by the Fed have allowed the bulls to remain in control while short-term support on the...

Vermilion Research

TMT Corona Virus Selloff Opportunities: Disney

We write this note as we see US futures trading down close to 5%. So...there is a good chance Disney becomes even more attractive tomorrow....

Aaron Gabin

Sprint/T Mobile Merger: Don't Be Surprised If This Deal Is Re-Priced

Sprint shares now trade at a 27% discount to the value implied in their T Mobile merger agreement. With federal regulatory approvals secured, that...

Kirk Boodry

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