Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)</a> raised over US$1bn in its IPO and has started trading on the SET today.</li>
<li>At the last trade price of THB 16/share, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)</a> is a borderline Fast Entry add to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a>.</li>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)</a> is added to the index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-life-assurance-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16237:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Life Assurance (BLA TB)</a> is the most likely deletion.</li>
</ul>



Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) raised over US$1bn in its IPO and has started trading on the SET today.
At the last trade price of THB 16/share, Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) is a borderline Fast Entry add to the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX).
If Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) is added to the index, Bangkok Life Assurance (BLA TB) is the most likely deletion.


Thai Life Insurance (TLI): Borderline SET50 Fast Entry

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
CP Vietnam (CPV), an 82%-held unlisted subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charoen-pokphand-foods-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16131:1" rel="noopener">CP FOODS (CPF TB)</a> (CPF), has <a href="https://classic.set.or.th/set/pdfnews.do?newsId=16505838201480&amp;sequence=2022047655" target="_blank" rel="noopener">applied</a> for a listing on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange</li>
<li>CPV, an integrated agro-industrial and food business play in Vietnam, generated Bt111.1bn of sales in FY21, accounting for 21.7% of CPF's revenue.</li>
<li>CPV forms part of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-pokphand-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10135:1" rel="noopener">Cp Pokphand (43 HK)</a> which was privatised in January this year. </li>
</ul>



CP Vietnam (CPV), an 82%-held unlisted subsidiary of CP FOODS (CPF TB) (CPF), has applied for a listing on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange
CPV, an integrated agro-industrial and food business play in Vietnam, generated Bt111.1bn of sales in FY21, accounting for 21.7% of CPF's revenue.
CPV forms part of Cp Pokphand (43 HK) which was privatised in January this year. 


CP Food (CPF TB): Vietnamese Ops To List On HCM Exchange

Total Access Communication / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Thailand's Trade Competition Commission said that only the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission has the authority to block the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp (TRUE TB)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a> merger.</li>
<li>At issue, the government appears to be stonewalling the transition of the NBTC board, potentially abetting the merger. </li>
<li>Both True and DTAC are trading through their VTO terms, ignoring dividends.</li>
</ul>


Thailand's Trade Competition Commission said that only the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission has the authority to block the True Corp (TRUE TB) / Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) merger.
At issue, the government appears to be stonewalling the transition of the NBTC board, potentially abetting the merger. 
Both True and DTAC are trading through their VTO terms, ignoring dividends.


<ul>
<li>Thai telcos <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a> have agreed to an amalgamation.</li>
<li>Telenor Asia, DTAC's parent, and Charoen Pokphand Holding, the parent firm of True, will make conditional voluntary tender offers for all shares in DTAC and True respectively.</li>
<li>A key condition to the merger is approval from the telco regulator, the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission.</li>
</ul>


Thai telcos True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) and Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) have agreed to an amalgamation.
Telenor Asia, DTAC's parent, and Charoen Pokphand Holding, the parent firm of True, will make conditional voluntary tender offers for all shares in DTAC and True respectively.
A key condition to the merger is approval from the telco regulator, the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission.


<ul>
<li>The Scheme Document for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-pokphand-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10135:1" rel="noopener">Cp Pokphand (43 HK)</a> (CPP) has been dispatched. The Scheme Meeting will take place on the 15 December. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charoen-pokphand-foods-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16131:1" rel="noopener">CP FOODS (CPF TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a> with 49.74% and 25% of shares out respectively are offering HK$1.15/share for CPP, a leading agri-food conglomerate in China and Vietnam. </li>
<li>The Independent Financial Adviser (Ballas Capital) considers the Scheme to be fair and reasonable. Assuming the Scheme gets up, payment is the 25 January, on or before.</li>
</ul>


The Scheme Document for Cp Pokphand (43 HK) (CPP) has been dispatched. The Scheme Meeting will take place on the 15 December. 

CP FOODS (CPF TB) and Itochu Corp (8001 JP) with 49.74% and 25% of shares out respectively are offering HK$1.15/share for CPP, a leading agri-food conglomerate in China and Vietnam. 
The Independent Financial Adviser (Ballas Capital) considers the Scheme to be fair and reasonable. Assuming the Scheme gets up, payment is the 25 January, on or before.


C.P. Pokphand (43 HK): Scheme Doc Out. Meeting on 15 December

Thailand

Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company Limited produces a wide range of food products. The Company's products include chicken, pork, shrimp, fish, eggs. and duck.

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CP FOODS (CPF TB)

Thai Life Insurance (TLI): Borderline SET50 Fast Entry

Thai Life Insurance (TLI) started trading today and is a close Fast Entry add to the SET50 Index. If TLI is added to the index, Bangkok Life (BLA)...

Brian Freitas

CP Food (CPF TB): Vietnamese Ops To List On HCM Exchange

As a pure valuation play, there is probably at least 10-20% upside from here. Or potentially hedge with CPALL although it's not a super-strong...

David Blennerhassett

NBTC To Decide On True/DTAC Merger

Long DTAC short TRUE trade at the current price ratio, using a share ratio in the 9.7x range. If the deal goes through, you are long deal risk at a...

David Blennerhassett

True/DTAC Merger. Optional VTOs

I would not chase this here. With the top two players potentially controlling ~96% of the market, even the Thai regulator might be reticent to...

David Blennerhassett

C.P. Pokphand (43 HK): Scheme Doc Out. Meeting on 15 December

This still looks a pretty clean deal. I'd be paying up to and around $1.12/share which is ~3.6%/15% gross/annualised spread.

David Blennerhassett

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