Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>CPF Investment Limited (a wholly owned subsidiary of CPF) acquired 6.02bn shares in C.P. Pokphand Co., Ltd. (CPP), equivalent to 23.8% of the total sold shares, for a total value of USD1.1bn, from ITOCHU Corporation.</li><li>The transaction aims to enhance management flexibility. (Source: SET)</li><li>The funding source will be entirely from borrowings (100%).</li></ul>

CPF Investment Limited (a wholly owned subsidiary of CPF) acquired 6.02bn shares in C.P. Pokphand Co., Ltd. (CPP), equivalent to 23.8% of the total sold shares, for a total value of USD1.1bn, from ITOCHU Corporation.The transaction aims to enhance management flexibility. (Source: SET)The funding source will be entirely from borrowings (100%).

CHAROEN POKPHAND FOODS Plc. - Increased Shareholding in CPP by 23.8% to 100%

<ul><li>1Q25E core profit is expected to have grown by 473% YoY and 58% QoQ, supported by rising swine prices in Thailand and Vietnam.</li><li>Although swine prices in China remain weak, the business is still expected to remain profitable, while lower raw material costs should have helped improve margins both YoY and QoQ.</li><li>The valuation metrics reflect a neutral view on the current fundamentals, with an average long-term growth outlook and very limited upside risk from a tactical perspective.</li></ul>

1Q25E core profit is expected to have grown by 473% YoY and 58% QoQ, supported by rising swine prices in Thailand and Vietnam.Although swine prices in China remain weak, the business is still expected to remain profitable, while lower raw material costs should have helped improve margins both YoY and QoQ.The valuation metrics reflect a neutral view on the current fundamentals, with an average long-term growth outlook and very limited upside risk from a tactical perspective.

Charoen Pokphand Foods - 1Q25E Core Profit Growth Projected at +473% YoY and +58% QoQ

<ul><li>4Q24 and 2024 core profit grew by 333% and 237% YoY, respectively.</li><li>The resulted exceeded expectations due to a better- than-expected margin improvement, driven by higher swine prices and lower raw material costs.</li><li>The 1Q25E expects profit is expected to increase YoY and QoQ.</li></ul>

4Q24 and 2024 core profit grew by 333% and 237% YoY, respectively.The resulted exceeded expectations due to a better- than-expected margin improvement, driven by higher swine prices and lower raw material costs.The 1Q25E expects profit is expected to increase YoY and QoQ.

Charoen Pokphand Foods - Upbeat 4Q24 and 2024 Core Profit; 1Q25E to Grow Further

<ul><li>4Q24E and 2024E core profit is expected to have grown by 251% and 220% YoY, respectively, driven by higher profit margins (due to rising swine prices and lower raw material costs), a decline in operating expenses to sales, and increased profit contributions from affiliates, despite a drop in sales.</li><li>The current valuation has been upgraded to a buy based on the fundamentals (previously undervalued), but the long-term growth outlook has been downgraded to neutral (previously strong), with net profit growth over the next two years expected at a CAGR of 8%.</li><li>From a tactical perspective, the outlook has also shifted to neutral (previously limited downside risk).</li></ul>

4Q24E and 2024E core profit is expected to have grown by 251% and 220% YoY, respectively, driven by higher profit margins (due to rising swine prices and lower raw material costs), a decline in operating expenses to sales, and increased profit contributions from affiliates, despite a drop in sales.The current valuation has been upgraded to a buy based on the fundamentals (previously undervalued), but the long-term growth outlook has been downgraded to neutral (previously strong), with net profit growth over the next two years expected at a CAGR of 8%.From a tactical perspective, the outlook has also shifted to neutral (previously limited downside risk).

Charoen Pokphand Foods - 4Q24E and 2024E Core Profit Growth of 251% and 220% YoY

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance levels at 1,164 and 1,176 points and the support levels at 1,150 and 1,145 points (10-day EMA).</li><li>In the short term, the index remains in a bullish flag rally phase, aiming to retest the previous resistance at 1,176 points, following the new low of the year at 1,056.41 points recorded on April 8.</li><li>This upward movement is expected to confirm a medium-term trend reversal from a downtrend to a new uptrend (with higher lows). </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance levels at 1,164 and 1,176 points and the support levels at 1,150 and 1,145 points (10-day EMA).In the short term, the index remains in a bullish flag rally phase, aiming to retest the previous resistance at 1,176 points, following the new low of the year at 1,056.41 points recorded on April 8.This upward movement is expected to confirm a medium-term trend reversal from a downtrend to a new uptrend (with higher lows). 

KTX Zoom: Expect Fund Inflows into the SET - APRIL 28, 2025

Thailand

Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company Limited produces a wide range of food products. The Company's products include chicken, pork, shrimp, fish, eggs. and duck.

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CP FOODS (CPF TB)

CHAROEN POKPHAND FOODS Plc. - Increased Shareholding in CPP by 23.8% to 100%

CPF Investment Limited (a wholly owned subsidiary of CPF) acquired 6.02bn shares in C.P. Pokphand Co., Ltd. (CPP), equivalent to 23.8% of the total...

Krungthai XSpring

Charoen Pokphand Foods - 1Q25E Core Profit Growth Projected at +473% YoY and +58% QoQ

The valuation metrics reflect a neutral view on the current fundamentals, with an average long-term growth outlook and very limited upside risk...

Krungthai XSpring

Charoen Pokphand Foods - Upbeat 4Q24 and 2024 Core Profit; 1Q25E to Grow Further

The resulted exceeded expectations due to a better- than-expected margin improvement, driven by higher swine prices and lower raw material costs.

Krungthai XSpring

Charoen Pokphand Foods - 4Q24E and 2024E Core Profit Growth of 251% and 220% YoY

We maintain an Outperform rating with a fair value of Bt25.36, based on the earnings yield method using a required return of 9.2%, reflecting a...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom: Expect Fund Inflows into the SET - APRIL 28, 2025

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance levels at 1,164 and 1,176 points and the support levels at 1,150...

Krungthai XSpring

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