Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Chang Hwa Commercial Bank / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>April monthly data on pre-tax income shows slowing YoY growth compared with YTD growth</li>
<li>NIM pressure was severe in past six months and this can be a key driver of less profit growth</li>
<li>Credit costs in decline supported net profit delta, but this may not longer be sustainable</li>
</ul>


April monthly data on pre-tax income shows slowing YoY growth compared with YTD growth
NIM pressure was severe in past six months and this can be a key driver of less profit growth
Credit costs in decline supported net profit delta, but this may not longer be sustainable


Chang Hwa Commercial Bank - April Monthly Profit Figures Suggest Slowing Growth

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Domestic credit growth in Hong Kong weakened further in latest monthly release at -2.2% YoY. Weekly Centa City Leading Index grinds lower, a more HFD point relevant to credit</li>
<li>The acceleration in domestic credit growth in Indonesia is unique, where growth is up to +11.2% YoY in most recent month vs +5.2% YoY in the same month last year  </li>
<li>We remain concerned about credit metrics for HK's banks given contracting growth, worsening property, which is collateral. Many HK banks have done little in provisioning </li>
</ul>


Domestic credit growth in Hong Kong weakened further in latest monthly release at -2.2% YoY. Weekly Centa City Leading Index grinds lower, a more HFD point relevant to credit
The acceleration in domestic credit growth in Indonesia is unique, where growth is up to +11.2% YoY in most recent month vs +5.2% YoY in the same month last year  
We remain concerned about credit metrics for HK's banks given contracting growth, worsening property, which is collateral. Many HK banks have done little in provisioning 


Asia Credit - HK Weakens More, Indonesia, Taiwan Remain Strong, and Improving

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 16th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.4bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in TSMC, Fortune Elec, Hon Hai, Far Eastone Tele, Chunghwa Telecom.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 16th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.4bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in TSMC, Fortune Elec, Hon Hai, Far Eastone Tele, Chunghwa Telecom.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Aug 16th): TSMC, Fortune Elec, Hon Hai, Far Eastone Tele

<ul>
<li>Monthly high frequency data from Taiwan's banks shows strong profit acceleration through May YTD, which will include insurance investment gains for some</li>
<li>This can be driven by accelerating loan growth to technology companies, to related companies, indirectly and may explain in part, Taiwan's leading loan growth rate vs other countries</li>
<li>Credit metrics and net profit growth can be supported for Taiwan's banks by a sector focus that differs from many others in the region and the world</li>
</ul>


Monthly high frequency data from Taiwan's banks shows strong profit acceleration through May YTD, which will include insurance investment gains for some
This can be driven by accelerating loan growth to technology companies, to related companies, indirectly and may explain in part, Taiwan's leading loan growth rate vs other countries
Credit metrics and net profit growth can be supported for Taiwan's banks by a sector focus that differs from many others in the region and the world


Taiwan Banks - HFD Profit Figures Good, Tech Exposure Can Support Credit Metrics, Loan Growth

Mega Financial Holding Co., Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>NPL growth in 1Q24 is higher than all peers QoQ in NTDm and 90% higher QoQ</li>
<li>Mega's YTD net profit is up only 3.2% as at May which may mean high credit costs</li>
<li>Impairment costs in total were around 3x higher last year YoY which can also be due to acquisitions, subsidiaries</li>
</ul>


NPL growth in 1Q24 is higher than all peers QoQ in NTDm and 90% higher QoQ
Mega's YTD net profit is up only 3.2% as at May which may mean high credit costs
Impairment costs in total were around 3x higher last year YoY which can also be due to acquisitions, subsidiaries


Mega Financial - NPL Formation In 1Q24 Surpasses All Peers, May YTD Net Profit Growth YoY Only 3%

Taiwan

Chang Hwa Commercial Bank provides a broad range of financial services.  The Bank's operations include deposits, short-term and mid-term loans, discount bills, securities brokerage, foreign currency transactions, and trust banking.

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Chang Hwa Commercial Bank (2801 TT)

Chang Hwa Commercial Bank - April Monthly Profit Figures Suggest Slowing Growth

April income figures show slowing growth compared with March. NIM compression is a concern and potentially rising credit costs, unlike the recent...

Daniel Tabbush

Asia Credit - HK Weakens More, Indonesia, Taiwan Remain Strong, and Improving

Domestic credit growth HFD shows weakening figures in Hong Kong, far better figures and strong in Indonesia, and still strong, rising in Taiwan....

Daniel Tabbush

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Aug 16th): TSMC, Fortune Elec, Hon Hai, Far Eastone Tele

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in TSMC, Fortune Elec, Hon Hai, Far Eastone Tele,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Taiwan Banks - HFD Profit Figures Good, Tech Exposure Can Support Credit Metrics, Loan Growth

Taiwan's banks may be unique with reasonable tech exposure, a possible driver for some of the best loan volume anywhere, with strong credit...

Daniel Tabbush

Mega Financial - NPL Formation In 1Q24 Surpasses All Peers, May YTD Net Profit Growth YoY Only 3%

Mega Financial is seeing weak net profit growth in its May 2024 release. Its surge in NPLs in 1Q24 may be a reason for this, and recall its...

Daniel Tabbush

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