HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd-49b9d808-e8c9-4049-a85a-5380de9f21ad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35558:1" rel="noopener"></a>YTD, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14215:1" rel="noopener">China Longyuan Power (916 HK)</a> has seen its share price weak, but we believe focus should not be on the poor FY22 result and the moderate 1Q23 generation growth.</li>
<li>Based on 5.5-6.5GW planned capacity expansion in FY23, this will mean a solid growth of 17.7-20.9% YoY. Coupled with efficiency improvement, we expect a sharp rebound in FY23 profit.</li>
<li>With impairment on Ukraine mostly made and reversal of exchange and trading losses, there will be a big swing in bottom line. We welcome the improvement in cash flow too.</li>
</ul>



YTD, China Longyuan Power (916 HK) has seen its share price weak, but we believe focus should not be on the poor FY22 result and the moderate 1Q23 generation growth.
Based on 5.5-6.5GW planned capacity expansion in FY23, this will mean a solid growth of 17.7-20.9% YoY. Coupled with efficiency improvement, we expect a sharp rebound in FY23 profit.
With impairment on Ukraine mostly made and reversal of exchange and trading losses, there will be a big swing in bottom line. We welcome the improvement in cash flow too.


China Longyuan (916 HK): We Stay on the Bull Camp

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Based on prices and turnover from 22 January, there could be one deletion from the index in January. Plus there will be capping and float changes.</li>
<li>There are four stocks that meet the inclusion criteria, but all are non-pure play companies, and the index is already at the limit of 15 non-pure play companies.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 6.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$506m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


Based on prices and turnover from 22 January, there could be one deletion from the index in January. Plus there will be capping and float changes.
There are four stocks that meet the inclusion criteria, but all are non-pure play companies, and the index is already at the limit of 15 non-pure play companies.
Estimated one-way turnover is 6.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$506m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.


Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Next Week

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yankuang-energy-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:384:1" rel="noopener">Yankuang Energy</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cgn-power-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:58:1" rel="noopener">CGN Power</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-coal-energy-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:383:1" rel="noopener">China Coal Energy</a> are buys, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beer-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:399:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beer</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-vanke-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18368:1" rel="noopener">China Vanke</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics</a> are sells for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)</a> in March.</li>
<li>Shorts have been spiking in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-vanke-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18368:1" rel="noopener">China Vanke (2202 HK)</a> while there has been covering in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yankuang-energy-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:384:1" rel="noopener">Yankuang Energy (1171 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beer-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:399:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>There has been an increase in cumulative excess volume on all the adds and deletes over the last few months. There could be more over the next week.</li>
</ul>



Yankuang Energy, CGN Power and China Coal Energy are buys, China Resources Beer, China Vanke and Wuxi Biologics are sells for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) in March.
Shorts have been spiking in China Vanke (2202 HK) while there has been covering in Yankuang Energy (1171 HK), China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) and Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK). 
There has been an increase in cumulative excess volume on all the adds and deletes over the last few months. There could be more over the next week.


Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>AI is poised to drive a large increase in power consumption on the mainland.  Data demand from generative AI necessitates more data centers and consequently more power.</li>
<li>China energy consumption is at the beginning of a super cycle as AI becomes integral to everyday corporate and eventually personal lives.</li>
<li>China's clean energy names will benefit from the China's energy strategy as its power needs from data centers surge.</li>
</ul>


AI is poised to drive a large increase in power consumption on the mainland.  Data demand from generative AI necessitates more data centers and consequently more power.
China energy consumption is at the beginning of a super cycle as AI becomes integral to everyday corporate and eventually personal lives.
China's clean energy names will benefit from the China's energy strategy as its power needs from data centers surge.


AAC Technologies Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong continued a correction in its Bull market which has lifted the HSCEI to be the best performing Asian index this year.  Southboune buying is strong.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aac-technologies-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6544:1" rel="noopener">AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK)</a> share price had a breakout relative to the MSCI AC Asia Index.  The company reported solid results benifitting from the smartphone and auto sectors.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cgn-power-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:58:1" rel="noopener">CGN Power (1816 HK)</a> share price relative to MSCI China broke down.  The company reported a disappointing 3Q24 results even as power generation increased by 15% YoY for the period.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong continued a correction in its Bull market which has lifted the HSCEI to be the best performing Asian index this year.  Southboune buying is strong.

AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK) share price had a breakout relative to the MSCI AC Asia Index.  The company reported solid results benifitting from the smartphone and auto sectors.


CGN Power (1816 HK) share price relative to MSCI China broke down.  The company reported a disappointing 3Q24 results even as power generation increased by 15% YoY for the period.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (NOVEMBER 25)

China

CGN Power Co., Ltd. operates and manages nuclear power generating stations. The Company sells all of the electricity from its stations, manages, oversees the construction of nuclear power stations, and provides technical research plus develops support services. CGN Power has stations in Guangdong, Fujian and Liaoning, and is a subsidiary of China General Nuclear Power Corporation.

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CGN Power (1816 HK)

China Longyuan (916 HK): We Stay on the Bull Camp

Capacity expansion of 17.7-20.9% YoY, coupled with efficiency improvement will mean sharp rebound in FY23 profit. Reduction in impairment and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Next Week

There could be 1 delete in Jan. There are unlikely to be any adds; one name is close. Estimated 1-way turnover is 6.8% resulting in a round-trip...

Brian Freitas

FXI Rebalance: Three Buys. Three Sells

There are 3 buys, 3 sells for the FXI in March. Two stocks have over 1x ADV to buy and cumulative excess volume has increased on all stocks. Trades...

Brian Freitas

CHINA: Do You Like AI? BUY Utilities!

GDS Holdings announced that is considering an IPO for a REIT of its data center assets in China which could happen next year. The share sale could...

David Mudd

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (NOVEMBER 25)

Southbound buying in HK continued strong with Value Factor providing the best returns.AAC Tech share price had a break out as it provided strong...

David Mudd

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