Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

The Europe HY Trade Book for October 2023 includes current trade recommendations drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry.

  The Europe HY Trade Book for October 2023 includes current trade recommendations drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry. 

Europe HY Trade Book - October 2023 - Lucror Analytics

Our H1/23 Assessment and Outlook report is a review of the performance of companies under our coverage in the stated period. Following a brief discussion of macro trends as well as monetary policy and input cost developments, we assess how these companies performed compared to our analysts’ expectations, and examine credit stats trends. We provide overviews of sector developments, as well as summaries of all the companies’ earnings. This includes classifying all the names into either picks or pans, to provide an overview of which companies we are comfortable of investing in a portfolio context. We highlight that both our picks and pans can be names for which we have “Hold” recommendations.

  Our H1/23 Assessment and Outlook report is a review of the performance of companies under our coverage in the stated period. Following a brief discussion of macro trends as well as monetary policy and input cost developments, we assess how these companies performed compared to our analysts’ expectations, and examine credit stats trends. We provide overviews of sector developments, as well as summaries of all the companies’ earnings. This includes classifying all the names into either picks or pans, to provide an overview of which companies we are comfortable of investing in a portfolio context. We highlight that both our picks and pans can be names for which we have “Hold” recommendations. 

Europe HY – H1/23 Assessment And Outlook - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for August 2023 includes current trade recommendations drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry.

  The Europe HY Trade Book for August 2023 includes current trade recommendations drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry. 

Europe HY Trade Book - August 2023 - Lucror Analytics

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Oil & Natural Gas Corp / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. </li>
<li>Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).</li>
<li>Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. 
Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).
Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials


MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed in our previous Int'l Compass (June 29, 2023), we are bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110</li>
<li>Bullish developments have continued: DXY breaking below $101-$101.50, RS bottoming for small-caps, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) 1+ year breakout above $50, Italy's FTSE MIB breaking above multi-year resistance at 28,100.</li>
<li>This is only further evidence supporting our bullish outlook. We are getting the breakout above 4400-4415 on the EURO STOXX 50 that we've been expecting. Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials</li>
</ul>


As discussed in our previous Int'l Compass (June 29, 2023), we are bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110
Bullish developments have continued: DXY breaking below $101-$101.50, RS bottoming for small-caps, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) 1+ year breakout above $50, Italy's FTSE MIB breaking above multi-year resistance at 28,100.
This is only further evidence supporting our bullish outlook. We are getting the breakout above 4400-4415 on the EURO STOXX 50 that we've been expecting. Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials


Bullish Developments Continue; MSCI ACWI Ex-US 1-Yr Breakout; Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials

United States

Eagle Materials Inc. manufactures and distributes cement, gypsum wallboard, recycled paperboard, and concrete and aggregates.  The Company's products are used in the construction of homes, commercial and industrial buildings, and governmental buildings across the United States.

Summit Materials, Inc. manufactures cement and concrete products. The Company produces cement, ready mix products which includes blocks, pipes, bricks, walls, and girders.

United States Lime & Minerals, Inc. supplies lime and limestone products to the steel, paper, agriculture, environmental protection, and construction industries.  The Company operates plants in Texas and Arkansas.

United States Steel Corporation operates as an integrated steel producer. The Company manufactures flat-rolled and tubular products with production operations in North America and Europe. United States Steel serves the automotive, appliance, container, industrial machinery, construction, and oil and gas industries.

Crown Holdings, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells packaging products for consumer goods through plants located in countries around the world.  The Company's primary products include steel and aluminum cans for food, beverage, household, and other consumer products.  Crown also provides a variety of metal caps, closures, and dispensing systems.

WestRock Company provides consumer and corrugated packaging solutions. The Company offers merchandising displays, paperboard, recycling, and waste solutions. WestRock conducts business in the United States.

AptarGroup, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets pumps, dispensing closures, and aerosol valves.  The Company's products are used for fragrance/cosmetics, personal care, pharmaceutical, household/industrial, and food products. AptarGroup operates worldwide.

Graphic Packaging Holding Company is an integrated provider of paperboard and integrated paperboard packaging solutions to multinational beverage and consumer products companies.  The Company manufactures folding cartons for frozen and non-frozen food and beverage products.

Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK US)

Alcoa Corporation manufactures metal products. The Company produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products. Alcoa serves aluminum industry worldwide.

Albemarle Corporation produces specialty and fine chemicals.  The Company's chemicals are additives to or intermediates for plastics, polymers and elastomers, cleaning products, agricultural compounds, pharmaceuticals, photographic chemicals, drilling compounds, and biocides.  Albemarle produces the majority of its products in the United States.

Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited manufactures cement products. The Company produces silicate cements, slag silicate cements, composite silicate cements, cement clinkers, and other products. Anhui Conch Cement Cement markets its products throughout China and worldwide.

ACC Limited  manufactures a range of cements and blended cements. The Company also manufactures gypsum and refractory products such as Brown Tabular Alumina. The Company provides turnkey and application consulting services for setting up and operating cement plants and refractories. The Company owns cement plants throughout India.

The Siam Cement Public Company Limited is a diversified industrial company. The Company's operations include cement manufacturing, petrochemicals manufacturing, paper manufacturing, building product manufacturing, and distribution.

China Jushi Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets glass fibers and its products. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also manufactures building materials and pol yvinyl chloride (PVC) plastic pipes.

Shree Cement Ltd. manufactures cement and cement products. The Company sells its products primarily in Northern India under its own brand names.

James Hardie Industries Plc manufactures building products for new home construction and remodeling.  The Company's products include fiber cement siding, backerboard, and pipe. James Hardie Industries operates in the United States, Australia and New Zealand.

Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets a variety of cement and its related products. The Company's products include normal cement, composite cement, portland cement, concrete, clinker, and other related products.

Taiwan Cement Corporation manufactures and markets cement.  The Company's products include Portland cement, high strength cement, oil well cement, and sludge treatment agents.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in transportation, construction, and information products businesses.

Buzzi Unicem S.p.A., through subsidiaries, produces and markets building materials.  The Company produces cement and ready-mix concrete in Italy and the United States.

Cemex SAB de CV is a building products company. The Company produces, distributes, and markets cement, ready-mix concrete, aggregates, and related building materials. Cemex operates throughout the Americas, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia.

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Cemex SAB de CV ADR (CX US)

Europe HY Trade Book - October 2023 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for October 2023 includes current trade recommendations drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with...

Lucror Analytics

Europe HY – H1/23 Assessment And Outlook - Lucror Analytics

Our H1/23 Assessment and Outlook report is a review of the performance of companies under our coverage in the stated period. Following a brief...

Lucror Analytics

Europe HY Trade Book - August 2023 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for August 2023 includes current trade recommendations drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with...

Lucror Analytics

MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

MSCI EM Index $EEM Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE $EFA. Top EM Country Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors:...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Developments Continue; MSCI ACWI Ex-US 1-Yr Breakout; Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials

We remain bullish on global equities as long as $ACWI remains above $93, targeting $110; Bullish developments continue: $DXY below $101.50, small...

Vermilion Research

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