Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There were a bunch of indices where the review period ended last week. The changes will be announced this month and implemented in December.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emerald-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17495:1" rel="noopener">Emerald Resources Nl (EMR AU)</a> replaced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invocare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9044:1" rel="noopener">Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the close on Friday.</li>
<li>There were large outflows from mainland China listed ETFs during the week. Outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:438:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets (EEM US)</a> continued for another week.</li>
</ul>


There were a bunch of indices where the review period ended last week. The changes will be announced this month and implemented in December.

Emerald Resources Nl (EMR AU) replaced Invocare Ltd (IVC AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on Friday.
There were large outflows from mainland China listed ETFs during the week. Outflows from iShares Emerging Markets (EEM US) continued for another week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NEXT50, SET50, L&F, Onewo, Celltrion, AMFI

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Back on the 17 August, biopharmaceuticals developer and producer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a> announced a merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-healthcare-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23641:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS)</a>.</li>
<li>On October 23rd, shareholders approved the merger. The appraisal rights exercise period commenced on the 23 October and ends on November 13. 28th December is the merger's effective date.</li>
<li>Initially, the stock purchase rights limit was set at 1₩tn; however Celltrion Group's founder/Chairman Seo Jung-jin has removed this limit. That takes care of NPS, which opposes the merger.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 17 August, biopharmaceuticals developer and producer Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) announced a merger with Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS).
On October 23rd, shareholders approved the merger. The appraisal rights exercise period commenced on the 23 October and ends on November 13. 28th December is the merger's effective date.
Initially, the stock purchase rights limit was set at 1₩tn; however Celltrion Group's founder/Chairman Seo Jung-jin has removed this limit. That takes care of NPS, which opposes the merger.


<ul>
<li>The Appraisal rights exercise period ends on 13 November. If the NPS and other large shareholders exercise their rights in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a>, the merger could be in trouble.</li>
<li>Both stocks are trading close to their exercise price and could be supported due to the companies buying back their shares.</li>
<li>There will be passive flows from local and global trackers and there does not appear to be pre-positioning. That is likely due to the risk of potential merger cancellation.</li>
</ul>


The Appraisal rights exercise period ends on 13 November. If the NPS and other large shareholders exercise their rights in Celltrion Inc (068270 KS), the merger could be in trouble.
Both stocks are trading close to their exercise price and could be supported due to the companies buying back their shares.
There will be passive flows from local and global trackers and there does not appear to be pre-positioning. That is likely due to the risk of potential merger cancellation.


Celltrion Merger: Appraisal Rights & Passive Flows

Haitong International Securities Group / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of October 2023, 7 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in October was 65%. The average YTD is 37% (85 deals).</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of October 2023, 7 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in October was 65%. The average YTD is 37% (85 deals).
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2023: Haitong, Azure, Hollysys, Aeon, Teraoka, Tietto, Lithium Power

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX Stocks as of Oct 27th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD11.9bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Samsung Biologic, Skc, Hotel Shilla Co, Ecopro, Posco Holdings I, Yuhan, Posco Dx.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX Stocks as of Oct 27th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD11.9bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Samsung Biologic, Skc, Hotel Shilla Co, Ecopro, Posco Holdings I, Yuhan, Posco Dx.


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 27th): Samsung Biologic, Skc, Hotel Shilla Co, Ecopro

South Korea

Celltrion Inc. produces and sells biosimilar products and also provides consignm ent processing service for other companies.  The Company's main product is Abata cept which is for arthritis treatment

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Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NEXT50, SET50, L&F, Onewo, Celltrion, AMFI

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Celltrion Merger Update: Limits Lifted

Initially, the stock purchase rights limit was set at 1₩tn; however Celltrion Group's founder/Chairman Seo Jung-jin has removed this limit. That...

David Blennerhassett

Celltrion Merger: Appraisal Rights & Passive Flows

The appraisal rights exercise period ends 13 Nov. Both companies are buying back shares. The last traded price is close to the appraisal price....

Brian Freitas

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2023: Haitong, Azure, Hollysys, Aeon, Teraoka, Tietto, Lithium Power

For the month of October, 7 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$4bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 27th): Samsung Biologic, Skc, Hotel Shilla Co, Ecopro

We analyzed KRX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Samsung Biologic, Skc, Hotel Shilla Co, Ecopro,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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