Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today, regenerative medicine service provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellsource-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40144:1" rel="noopener">CellSource (4880 JP)</a> announced a forecast revision lower for the year ending 31 October. It also announced a new dividend policy and dividend payout.</li>
<li>It also announced an equity offering of up to 3.542mm shares, increasing float by 60% followed by a move from the TSE Growth segment to TSE Prime. </li>
<li>The dynamics of shareholder structure and flow mean one can wait this one out.</li>
</ul>


Today, regenerative medicine service provider CellSource (4880 JP) announced a forecast revision lower for the year ending 31 October. It also announced a new dividend policy and dividend payout.
It also announced an equity offering of up to 3.542mm shares, increasing float by 60% followed by a move from the TSE Growth segment to TSE Prime. 
The dynamics of shareholder structure and flow mean one can wait this one out.


CellSource (4880) TOPIX Inclusion Coming Up

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

<ul>
<li>The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) calculates Free-Float Weight (FFW) for each listed company and uses this value as a key component of TOPIX Index Calculation.</li>
<li>For companies with "low liquidity" the FFW will be multiplied by a fixed liquidity factor of 0.75 to derive the final FFW used for index calculation.</li>
<li>Every April, the application of this liquidity factor is reviewed by the TSE. In this insight, we take an early look at what could happen in April 2024.</li>
</ul>


The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) calculates Free-Float Weight (FFW) for each listed company and uses this value as a key component of TOPIX Index Calculation.
For companies with "low liquidity" the FFW will be multiplied by a fixed liquidity factor of 0.75 to derive the final FFW used for index calculation.
Every April, the application of this liquidity factor is reviewed by the TSE. In this insight, we take an early look at what could happen in April 2024.


TOPIX "Big April Basket" 2024 Expectations: More High-Conviction Names; Better Trade Ideas

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>Our main pre-event candidate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celsys-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20774:1" rel="noopener">CELSYS (3663 JP)</a> has outperformed TOPIX by ~12.6% since 1 Sep (when it was highlighted) and 6 Nov 2023.</li>
<li>There are three TOPIX Inclusion events confirmed for the end of November and two other interesting pre-event names we are closely monitoring.</li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
Our main pre-event candidate CELSYS (3663 JP) has outperformed TOPIX by ~12.6% since 1 Sep (when it was highlighted) and 6 Nov 2023.
There are three TOPIX Inclusion events confirmed for the end of November and two other interesting pre-event names we are closely monitoring.


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Nov 2023)

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>Should the nominated directors, to be voted on by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">EOFlow (294090 KS)</a>'s shareholders at the November EGM, include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medtronic-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14982:1" rel="noopener">Medtronic Plc (MDT US)</a> executives, then game on.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> STILL has a Nikkei 225 problem, which means it probably has to underperform Nikkei 225 slightly between now and the Base Date (31 July 2024).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmdc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28673:1" rel="noopener">JMDC (4483 JP)</a> has been one of the more annoying partial tenders out there. Even post-facto, it is tough to know what the disposition was. This is extraordinarily vexing.</li>
</ul>


Should the nominated directors, to be voted on by EOFlow (294090 KS)'s shareholders at the November EGM, include Medtronic Plc (MDT US) executives, then game on.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) STILL has a Nikkei 225 problem, which means it probably has to underperform Nikkei 225 slightly between now and the Base Date (31 July 2024).

JMDC (4483 JP) has been one of the more annoying partial tenders out there. Even post-facto, it is tough to know what the disposition was. This is extraordinarily vexing.


Last Week In Event SPACE: EOFlow, Fast Retailing, JMDC, Origin Energy

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>Since my last insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellsource-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40144:1" rel="noopener">CellSource (4880 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasumigaseki-capital-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40162:1" rel="noopener">Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP)</a> have confirmed they will move to TSE Prime which means they will be included in TOPIX at end-November.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fp-partner-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40040:1" rel="noopener">FP Partner (7388 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/i-ne-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40117:1" rel="noopener">I-NE (4933 JP)</a> will get included in TOPIX at the end of October.</li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
Since my last insight, CellSource (4880 JP) and Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP) have confirmed they will move to TSE Prime which means they will be included in TOPIX at end-November.

FP Partner (7388 JP) and I-NE (4933 JP) will get included in TOPIX at the end of October.


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Oct 2023)

Japan

CellSource Co., Ltd. offers regenerative medical services. The Company provides medical institution operating procedures supporting, medical expertise knowledge supporting, and other services. CellSource also operates chemical manufacturing, cell processing, and other businesses.

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CellSource (4880 JP)

CellSource (4880) TOPIX Inclusion Coming Up

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TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Nov 2023)

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Last Week In Event SPACE: EOFlow, Fast Retailing, JMDC, Origin Energy

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Oct 2023)

There are currently 67 names that satisfy all 6 key Segment Transfer requirements based on current data. Celsys (3663 JP) continues to be the top...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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