Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Taiwanese air cargo rates soared during the pandemic, and remain high today</li>
<li>Taiwan's carriers also benefited from an early recovery in outbound tourism</li>
<li>Investors seem to be pricing in a '24 earnings collapse that probably won't happen</li>
</ul>


Taiwanese air cargo rates soared during the pandemic, and remain high today
Taiwan's carriers also benefited from an early recovery in outbound tourism
Investors seem to be pricing in a '24 earnings collapse that probably won't happen


Thanks to High Cargo Yields & Early Tourism Rebound, EVA & CAL Remain Highly Profitable in H223

<ul>
<li>In October, the sluggish recovery in outbound tourism demand continued</li>
<li>Outbound capacity growth also timid; but domestic recovery is mostly complete</li>
<li>As growth stock, Trip.com's disappointed; maybe it can attract value investors?</li>
</ul>


In October, the sluggish recovery in outbound tourism demand continued
Outbound capacity growth also timid; but domestic recovery is mostly complete
As growth stock, Trip.com's disappointed; maybe it can attract value investors?


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Recovery Still Sluggish | Trip.com as Value Name | (November 2023)

Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China is expanding its list of countries allowed to enter visa-free. A good gesture to make China more friendly to foreigners and one step closer to global best practices </li>
<li>Chinese major airlines and airports can become more desirable global aviation hubs, assuming they play their cards right </li>
<li>Doubt much can change in a year, but the seeds are sown for stiffer competition for airlines with a hub-and-spoke strategy in North Asia</li>
</ul>


China is expanding its list of countries allowed to enter visa-free. A good gesture to make China more friendly to foreigners and one step closer to global best practices 
Chinese major airlines and airports can become more desirable global aviation hubs, assuming they play their cards right 
Doubt much can change in a year, but the seeds are sown for stiffer competition for airlines with a hub-and-spoke strategy in North Asia


China to Provide Visa-Free for Six Countries - Why and The (Possible) Impact

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener"></a>With P/B back to the 5-year average of 1.9x but ROE surpassing the last five years, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (753 HK)</a> is our High Conviction pick for 2024.</li>
<li>Lower US interest rates next year will reduce interest expenses as 18.7% of debt is USD-denominated. Potential Rmb appreciation vs. USD may bring significant exchange gain too.</li>
<li>Supportive government policies will further drive domestic traffic. For international traffic, more capacity resumption will power recovery. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a> is another profit accelerator.</li>
</ul>



With P/B back to the 5-year average of 1.9x but ROE surpassing the last five years, Air China Ltd (753 HK) is our High Conviction pick for 2024.
Lower US interest rates next year will reduce interest expenses as 18.7% of debt is USD-denominated. Potential Rmb appreciation vs. USD may bring significant exchange gain too.
Supportive government policies will further drive domestic traffic. For international traffic, more capacity resumption will power recovery. Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) is another profit accelerator.


2024 High Conviction: Air China (753 HK) - What Comes Down Must Go Up

<ul>
<li>Trip.com reported strong Q3 earnings, reflecting 2023's ongoing tourism revival</li>
<li>Net Income beat expectations, and company made progress on expense control</li>
<li>But we don't see "game-changing" numbers in Trip.com's latest earnings release</li>
</ul>


Trip.com reported strong Q3 earnings, reflecting 2023's ongoing tourism revival
Net Income beat expectations, and company made progress on expense control
But we don't see "game-changing" numbers in Trip.com's latest earnings release


Trip.com Q3 Quick Take: Net Inc > Consensus | Progress on Expenses | But Not a Game-Changer

Hong Kong

Cathay Pacific Airways Limited operates scheduled airline services. The Company also provides related services, including airline catering, aircraft handling, and engineering.

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Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)

Thanks to High Cargo Yields & Early Tourism Rebound, EVA & CAL Remain Highly Profitable in H223

Air cargo rates at EVA remain high, and a strong recovery in Taiwanese tourism demand is lifting passenger yields, too. Investors are pricing in a...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Recovery Still Sluggish | Trip.com as Value Name | (November 2023)

October outbound demand increased vs September but remains below pre-pandemic levels. We've long viewed Trip.com negatively as a growth stock, but...

Tracking Traffic

China to Provide Visa-Free for Six Countries - Why and The (Possible) Impact

China is opening visa-free entry for more countries, aiming to improve its global image and become a preferred aviation hub in North Asia. Could...

Mohshin Aziz

2024 High Conviction: Air China (753 HK) - What Comes Down Must Go Up

Air China will have a solid ROE recovery and an inexpensive P/B in 2024. It will benefit from lower US rate and Rmb appreciation. Meanwhile,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Trip.com Q3 Quick Take: Net Inc > Consensus | Progress on Expenses | But Not a Game-Changer

Trip.com reported Q323 results that featured strong top-line growth, sharp Y/Y improvement in margins, and progress on cost control. But its Q323...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Thanks to High Cargo Yields & Early Tourism Rebound, EVA & CAL Remain Highly Profitable in H223

Air cargo rates at EVA remain high, and a strong recovery in Taiwanese tourism demand is lifting passenger yields, too. Investors are pricing in a...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Recovery Still Sluggish | Trip.com as Value Name | (November 2023)

October outbound demand increased vs September but remains below pre-pandemic levels. We've long viewed Trip.com negatively as a growth stock, but...

Tracking Traffic

China to Provide Visa-Free for Six Countries - Why and The (Possible) Impact

​China is opening visa-free entry for more countries, aiming to improve its global image and become a preferred aviation hub in North Asia. Could...

Mohshin Aziz

2024 High Conviction: Air China (753 HK) - What Comes Down Must Go Up

​Air China will have a solid ROE recovery and an inexpensive P/B in 2024. It will benefit from lower US rate and Rmb appreciation. Meanwhile,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Trip.com Q3 Quick Take: Net Inc > Consensus | Progress on Expenses | But Not a Game-Changer

Trip.com reported Q323 results that featured strong top-line growth, sharp Y/Y improvement in margins, and progress on cost control. But its Q323...

Tracking Traffic

China is opening visa-free entry for more countries, aiming to improve its global image and become a preferred aviation hub in North Asia. Could...

Air China will have a solid ROE recovery and an inexpensive P/B in 2024. It will benefit from lower US rate and Rmb appreciation. Meanwhile,...