IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU)</a>’s 1HFY22 results on 24 February stated that the Dye &amp; Durham/DND's privatisation scheme remains on track to complete in June/July. </li>
<li>Key hurdles are ACCC clearance and the Woodford investigation. Key catalysts are the scheme booklet (in the coming weeks) and an agreement to sell BCM. </li>
<li>We would be buyers up to A$5.2 per share (implies 70% deal probability). The gross and annualised spread for a 31 July implementation is 8.6% and 23.8%, respectively. </li>
</ul>



Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU)’s 1HFY22 results on 24 February stated that the Dye &amp; Durham/DND's privatisation scheme remains on track to complete in June/July. 
Key hurdles are ACCC clearance and the Woodford investigation. Key catalysts are the scheme booklet (in the coming weeks) and an agreement to sell BCM. 
We would be buyers up to A$5.2 per share (implies 70% deal probability). The gross and annualised spread for a 31 July implementation is 8.6% and 23.8%, respectively. 


<ul>
<li>Dye &amp; Durham/DND’s base (A$5.50 cash per share) + A$0.03 per share interim dividend offer of A$5.53 per share, a 27.7% premium to the unaffected price of A$4.33 (4 November). </li>
<li>At <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pexa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34716:1" rel="noopener">PEXA Group (PXA AU)</a> last close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carlyle-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33402:1" rel="noopener">Carlyle Group Inc (CG US)</a>’s offer is worth A$5.51 per share. Carlyle’s long interest in Link suggests that it could improve its offer. </li>
<li>We think that the DND offer is reasonable in the context of historical multiples. Nevertheless, there is a good probability that Carlyle tries to regain the upper hand.</li>
</ul>


Dye &amp; Durham/DND’s base (A$5.50 cash per share) + A$0.03 per share interim dividend offer of A$5.53 per share, a 27.7% premium to the unaffected price of A$4.33 (4 November). 
At PEXA Group (PXA AU) last close, Carlyle Group Inc (CG US)’s offer is worth A$5.51 per share. Carlyle’s long interest in Link suggests that it could improve its offer. 
We think that the DND offer is reasonable in the context of historical multiples. Nevertheless, there is a good probability that Carlyle tries to regain the upper hand.


<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU)</a> announced that it received a non-binding indicative proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carlyle-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33402:1" rel="noopener">Carlyle Group Inc (CG US)</a>. Carlyle will offer A$3.00 cash per share plus a pro-rata distribution of Link’s 42.8% shareholding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pexa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34716:1" rel="noopener">PEXA Group (PXA AU)</a> (worth A$2.38 per Link share at PEXA’s share price of A$16.23 on 4 November). The total consideration of A$5.38 per share is a 24.2% premium to the unaffected price of A$4.33 (on 4 November). Carlyle’s core Link (excluding PEXA stake) value of A$3.00 per share is a 53.8% premium to the implied core Link share price of A$1.95 per share (on 4 November). </p><p>Link is no stranger to bids and received several bids in the recent past, including from Carlyle. Carlyle and Pacific Equity Partners made an indicative A$5.20 per share offer on 12 October 2020, which was later raised to A$5.40 on 26 October but withdrawn on 28 April 2021. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ss-c-technologies-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3464:1" rel="noopener">SS&amp;C Technologies (SSNC US)</a> lobbed an A$5.65 per share offer on 7 December 2020 but withdrew the offer on 3 January 2021. Also, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR &amp; Co Inc (KKR US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/domain-holdings-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26033:1" rel="noopener">Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU)</a> proposed to acquire PEXA for A$3.1 billion on 27 May 2021 which was declined in favour of a separate listing for PEXA.  </p><p>Link’s Board has argued that the previous bids did not represent compelling value and sought to generate shareholder returns through the PEXA IPO and outlining ambitious FY26 targets in a November investor day. However, PEXA’s market cap of A$2.8 billion at last close is below KKR’s bid of A$3.1 billion. The lukewarm share price response (shares down -2% on the following day) to the investor day points to low confidence that the targets can be reached. </p><p>Carlyle’s latest offer is subject to due diligence, execution of transaction documents and securing debt financing. Due diligence should be short due to Carlyle’s access to the due diligence materials through its previous bid.  </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>The Board’s previous track record of knocking back bids has resulted in Link’s last close price of A$4.70 trading at a wide 14.5% gross spread to the indicative offer of A$5.38 per share. However, due to the Board’s failure to generate shareholder value and there no longer being a debate on PEXA valuation (as PEXA is now listed), the Board will face pressure to engage with Carlyle. We also think that Carlyle has room to sweeten its bid as its latest bid values core Link at A$3.00 per share, which is 21% below its previous offer which valued core Link at A$3.80 per share. </p></div>

Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) announced that it received a non-binding indicative proposal from Carlyle Group Inc (CG US). Carlyle will offer A$3.00 cash per share plus a pro-rata distribution of Link’s 42.8% shareholding in PEXA Group (PXA AU) (worth A$2.38 per Link share at PEXA’s share price of A$16.23 on 4 November). The total consideration of A$5.38 per share is a 24.2% premium to the unaffected price of A$4.33 (on 4 November). Carlyle’s core Link (excluding PEXA stake) value of A$3.00 per share is a 53.8% premium to the implied core Link share price of A$1.95 per share (on 4 November). Link is no stranger to bids and received several bids in the recent past, including from Carlyle. Carlyle and Pacific Equity Partners made an indicative A$5.20 per share offer on 12 October 2020, which was later raised to A$5.40 on 26 October but withdrawn on 28 April 2021. SS&amp;C Technologies (SSNC US) lobbed an A$5.65 per share offer on 7 December 2020 but withdrew the offer on 3 January 2021. Also, KKR &amp; Co Inc (KKR US) and Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU) proposed to acquire PEXA for A$3.1 billion on 27 May 2021 which was declined in favour of a separate listing for PEXA.  Link’s Board has argued that the previous bids did not represent compelling value and sought to generate shareholder returns through the PEXA IPO and outlining ambitious FY26 targets in a November investor day. However, PEXA’s market cap of A$2.8 billion at last close is below KKR’s bid of A$3.1 billion. The lukewarm share price response (shares down -2% on the following day) to the investor day points to low confidence that the targets can be reached. Carlyle’s latest offer is subject to due diligence, execution of transaction documents and securing debt financing. Due diligence should be short due to Carlyle’s access to the due diligence materials through its previous bid.  The Board’s previous track record of knocking back bids has resulted in Link’s last close price of A$4.70 trading at a wide 14.5% gross spread to the indicative offer of A$5.38 per share. However, due to the Board’s failure to generate shareholder value and there no longer being a debate on PEXA valuation (as PEXA is now listed), the Board will face pressure to engage with Carlyle. We also think that Carlyle has room to sweeten its bid as its latest bid values core Link at A$3.00 per share, which is 21% below its previous offer which valued core Link at A$3.80 per share. 

Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abbisko-cayman-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33511:1" rel="noopener">Abbisko Cayman (ABB HK)</a> is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery and development of innovative and differentiated small molecule oncology therapies. Abbisko has developed a pipeline of 14 candidates focused on oncology, including five candidates at the clinical stage The core products are ABSK091, a pan-FGFR inhibitor licensed from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astrazeneca-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21824:1" rel="noopener">AstraZeneca PLC (AZN LN)</a> and ABSK011, an FGFR4 inhibitor. Abbisko is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise $300 million, according to press reports. </p><p>Abbisko has a credible management team with a commendable commercialisation track record. The three co-founders together have made contributions to several discovery programs, several of which led to successful commercialisation. Abbisko also has several blue-chip backers such as Lilly Asia Ventures, Sinopharm Capital, Qiming Venture Capital, GIC, Temasek, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carlyle-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33402:1" rel="noopener">Carlyle Group Inc (CG US)</a>, Lake Bleu Capital and OrbiMed. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>While both core products are at an early stage of development, promising results from trials, management’s track record and the exceptional line-up of blue-chip backers suggest that the product candidates have the potential to succeed in a fiercely competitive market. Overall, we believe that Abbisko is worth a closer look. </p></div>

Abbisko Cayman (ABB HK) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery and development of innovative and differentiated small molecule oncology therapies. Abbisko has developed a pipeline of 14 candidates focused on oncology, including five candidates at the clinical stage The core products are ABSK091, a pan-FGFR inhibitor licensed from AstraZeneca PLC (AZN LN) and ABSK011, an FGFR4 inhibitor. Abbisko is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise $300 million, according to press reports. Abbisko has a credible management team with a commendable commercialisation track record. The three co-founders together have made contributions to several discovery programs, several of which led to successful commercialisation. Abbisko also has several blue-chip backers such as Lilly Asia Ventures, Sinopharm Capital, Qiming Venture Capital, GIC, Temasek, Carlyle Group Inc (CG US), Lake Bleu Capital and OrbiMed. While both core products are at an early stage of development, promising results from trials, management’s track record and the exceptional line-up of blue-chip backers suggest that the product candidates have the potential to succeed in a fiercely competitive market. Overall, we believe that Abbisko is worth a closer look. 

Abbisko IPO: A Promising but Longer Term Prognosis

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34119:1" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics (1292621D CH)</a> operates a leading express freight network in China’s less-than-truckload (LTL) market. ANE operated the largest express freight network in China as measured by annual total freight volume in each of 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, according to iResearch.</p><p>ANE passed its HKEx listing committee hearing and will start pre-marketing to raise up to $500 million, according to press reports. ANE’s shareholders include Centurium, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carlyle-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33402:1" rel="noopener">Carlyle Group Inc (CG US)</a>, CDH, CPE, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nws-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3350:1" rel="noopener">Nws Holdings (659 HK)</a>, Ping An, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldman-sachs-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:785:1" rel="noopener">Goldman Sachs Group (GS US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inner-mongolia-yili-indus-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3220:1" rel="noopener">Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH)</a>.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>ANE is a play on China’s LTL market which offers substantial opportunities for market consolidation as the top 10 LTL operators in China had a market share of 5.7% by shipper spend in 2020, according to iResearch. As the largest (by freight volume), fastest-growing and most profitable player, ANE is well-positioned to be a market consolidator. On balance, we think that ANE’s fundamentals are solid and the IPO is worth a look for investors willing to brave the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs. </p></div>

ANE Logistics (1292621D CH) operates a leading express freight network in China’s less-than-truckload (LTL) market. ANE operated the largest express freight network in China as measured by annual total freight volume in each of 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, according to iResearch.ANE passed its HKEx listing committee hearing and will start pre-marketing to raise up to $500 million, according to press reports. ANE’s shareholders include Centurium, Carlyle Group Inc (CG US), CDH, CPE, Nws Holdings (659 HK), Ping An, Goldman Sachs Group (GS US) and Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH).ANE is a play on China’s LTL market which offers substantial opportunities for market consolidation as the top 10 LTL operators in China had a market share of 5.7% by shipper spend in 2020, according to iResearch. As the largest (by freight volume), fastest-growing and most profitable player, ANE is well-positioned to be a market consolidator. On balance, we think that ANE’s fundamentals are solid and the IPO is worth a look for investors willing to brave the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs. 

ANE Logistics IPO Initiation: Home Delivery

United States

Northern Trust Corporation is a financial holding company that provides investment management, asset and fund administration, fiduciary, and banking solutions for corporations, institutions, and affluent individuals. Northern Trust's banking operations are its primary operations.

Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. is an automated global electronic market maker and broker specializing in routing orders and executing and processing trades in securities, futures, and foreign exchange instruments.

LPL Financial Holdings, Inc. offers technology, brokerage and investment advisory services through business relationships with all types of financial advisors. Through proprietary technology, custody and clearing platforms, the Company offers access to financial products and services that enable them to provide financial advice and brokerage services to retail investors.

Cboe Global Markets, Inc. operates a marketplace for the trading of standardized, listed options on equity securities. The Company is recognized for its role in the trading of options on individual equities, market indexes and exchange-traded funds, their suite of products, their markets and their hybrid trading model.

Houlihan Lokey, Inc. operates as an investment bank. The Company offers mergers and acquisitions, financial restructuring, capital markets, strategic consulting, and financial advisory services. Houlihan Lokey serves customers worldwide.

Tradeweb Markets Inc. builds and operates electronic marketplaces for rates, credit, equities/ETFs and money markets. The company serves institutional, wholesale and retail clients in 62 countries including large global asset managers, insurance companies, central banks, financial advisory firms, proprietary trading firms, hedge funds, banks and dealers.

Evercore Partners Inc. is an investment banking boutique. The firm provides advisory services to multinational corporations on mergers, acquisitions, divestitures, restructurings and other corporate transactions. Evercore also manages private equity funds for institutional investors.

Raymond James Financial, Inc. provides financial services to individuals, corporations, and municipalities through its subsidiary investment firms. The Company operates throughout the United States, Canada and overseas.

Franklin Resources, Inc. (d.b.a. Franklin Templeton Investments) provides investment advisory services to mutual fund, retirement, institutional/separate accounts and high net worth investors. The Company manages various asset classes including global equity, global institutional and municipal fixed income, money funds, alternative investments, and hedge funds.

Jefferies Financial Group Inc. is a global diversified financial services company focusing on investment banking and capital markets, asset management and direct investing. The Company offers a full range of investment banking, equities, fixed income, asset and wealth management products and services.

Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. offers securities services. The Company provides securities brokerage, asset management, securities investment, share transfer agency, and capital intermediary services. Haitong Securities focuses on  online brokerage, wealth management, and institutional investors.

Haitong Securities Co Ltd (A) (600837 CH)

Huatai Securities Co., Ltd. provides financial company. The Company provides securities brokerage services, research consulting services, investment banking and direct investment services, fixed-income services and asset management services.

Yuanta Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company. Its main businesses include brokerage, margin financing, domestic and overseas issuance, financial and M&A advisory, primary listings, corporate financial, securities underwriting and placements, etc. The company also holds the leading position in the derivatives business.

Japan Exchange Group Inc is the holding company created through the merger of Tokyo Stock Exchange Group, Inc and Osaka Securities Exchange Co., Ltd. The group provides and operates a marketplace for the trading of equities, futures, and options. The Group manages the trading, as well as administers listed stocks and registered members.

China Merchants Securities Co., Ltd. provides securities services. The Company offers securities brokerage, securities investment consulting, securities underwriting, and other services. China Merchants Securities also operates investment management.

China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (A) (600999 CH)

GF Securities Co Ltd. is a securities firm. The Company offers investment banking services including equity and bond underwriting, mergers and acquisitions consulting, financial consulting, brokerage services, and asset management services.

Amundi SA provides investment management services. The Company offers savings, financial instruments, equity trading, credit activities, and investment solutions. Amundi serves customers worldwide.

Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. operates as an investment management firm. The Company focuses on property development, renewable energy, infrastructure, insurance, and private equity. Brookfield Asset Management serves customers worldwide.

Guotai Junan Securities Co.,Ltd. provides financial services. The Company offers corporate finance, fixed income securities, asset management, risk management, and other services. Guotai Junan Securities Company serves clients throughout China.

Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co., Ltd. provides securities services. The Company offers securities brokerage, securities investment consulting, securities investment fund agency, securities asset management, and other services. Shenwan Hongyuan Group provides services in China.

The Carlyle Group Inc. operates as a global investment firm. The Company manages investment vehicles that invests across four segments which includes corporate private equity, real assets, global credit, and investment solutions. Carlyle Group serves clients worldwide.

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Carlyle Group / (CG US)

Link's Offer Spread Risk/Reward

Key hurdles are ACCC clearance and the Woodford investigation. Key catalysts are the scheme booklet and an agreement to sell BCM. The annualised...

Arun George

Link Enters a SID with Dye & Durham

DND’s base + interim dividend offer of A$5.53 per share is a 27.7% premium to the unaffected price of A$4.33. There is a good chance that Carlyle...

Arun George

Link Gets Another Offer from Carlyle

Link received another offer from Carlyle worth A$5.38 per share. Carlyle has room to sweeten its bid as its latest bid values core Link at A$3.00...

Arun George

Abbisko IPO: A Promising but Longer Term Prognosis

While both core products are at an early stage of development, promising trials, management’s track record and blue-chip backers suggest that the...

Arun George

ANE Logistics IPO Initiation: Home Delivery

ANE will start pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise up to $500 m. We think that ANE’s fundamentals are solid and the IPO is worth a look for...

Arun George

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