Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Back on the 16 March, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cardinal-resources-ltd-9e1d58d4-8d9b-48dd-a059-3f04f896e3ee" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28182:1" rel="noopener">Cardinal Resources Ltd (CDV CN)</a> <a href="https://www.cardinalresources.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/44g3dcdj1ws0zv.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> the receipt of a non-binding Offer from Nord Gold SE (Nordgold) at A$0.45775/share. Nordgold held 19.9% of shares out having acquired 16.4% from Goldfields Limited.
In a <a href="https://www.cardinalresources.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/44ght29h1n29by.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">30 March update</a>, CDV said it had entered into a confidentiality agreement with Nordgold and had also provided due diligence. There has been no further update.
On the 18 June, CDV <a href="https://www.cardinalresources.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/2075832.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">recommended</a> a takeover Offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-gold-mining-co-ltd-61153493-5437-47ee-a8d3-aec41fb7f1da" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27455:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. (1787 HK)</a> at A$0.60/share, a 75.5% premium to CDV's 20-day unaffected VWAP, and a 31.1% premium to Nordgold's proposal.  Here is SGM's <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0619/2020061900061.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a>. 
This off-market takeover offer is subject to a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition. SGM has also provided an interim funding package of A$11.96mn via a placement of shares.
CDV’s directors, collectively holding of 6.37% of CDV’s ordinary shares, intend to accept the Offer. 
This deal could get up, even if Nordgold does not tender, but that will be challenging. If on board, this deal is all but done.
But I suspect shares may have more to run from these competing suitors.

Back on the 16 March, Cardinal Resources Ltd (CDV CN) announced the receipt of a non-binding Offer from Nord Gold SE (Nordgold) at A$0.45775/share. Nordgold held 19.9% of shares out having acquired 16.4% from Goldfields Limited.
In a 30 March update, CDV said it had entered into a confidentiality agreement with Nordgold and had also provided due diligence. There has been no further update.
On the 18 June, CDV recommended a takeover Offer from Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. (1787 HK) at A$0.60/share, a 75.5% premium to CDV's 20-day unaffected VWAP, and a 31.1% premium to Nordgold's proposal.  Here is SGM's announcement. 
This off-market takeover offer is subject to a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition. SGM has also provided an interim funding package of A$11.96mn via a placement of shares.
CDV’s directors, collectively holding of 6.37% of CDV’s ordinary shares, intend to accept the Offer. 
This deal could get up, even if Nordgold does not tender, but that will be challenging. If on board, this deal is all but done.
But I suspect shares may have more to run from these competing suitors.

Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Janus Analysis

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul class="">
<li>Iron Ore fallen &gt;27% in nine days, trader driven, as opposed to fundamentals</li>
<li>Chinese iron ore consumption growth &gt;4% over the pcp</li>
<li>Supply shortages structural, limited capacity for near-term iron ore expansion</li>
<li>Retain BUY recommendation on FMG, Rio Tinto, BHP</li>
<li>Change SELL recommendation on Vale to HOLD</li>
<li>China actively exploring demand-side solutions, increased infrastructure investment</li>
<li>Yuan devaluation unlikely to adversely impact domestic seaborne iron ore demand</li>
<li>Decline in the LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent) price accelerating</li>
<li>Re-iterate SELL on all Lithium Explorers</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortescue-metals-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1" rel="noopener">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vale-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23731:1" rel="noopener">Vale SA (VALE US), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-billiton-ltd-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5424:1" rel="noopener">Bhp Billiton Ltd (Adr) (BHP US), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU, </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pensana-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2106:1" rel="noopener">Pensana Metals (PM8 AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/peel-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4111:1" rel="noopener">Peel Mining Ltd (PEX AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azumah-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5124:1" rel="noopener">Azumah Resources (AZM AU), Ausmex (ASX: AMG), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/navarre-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2688:1" rel="noopener">Navarre Minerals (NML AU)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azumah-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5124:1" rel="noopener">, Ekorre Resources (ASX: ERX), Bardoc (ASX: BDC), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emerald-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17495:1" rel="noopener">Emerald Resources Nl (EMR AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vango-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19897:1" rel="noopener">Vango Mining (VAN AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emmerson-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18705:1" rel="noopener">Emmerson Resources (ERM AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/firestone-diamonds-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23522:1" rel="noopener">Firestone Diamonds (FDI LN), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7038:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Resources (AGS AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackstone-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28181:1" rel="noopener">Blackstone Minerals Ltd (BSX AU), Spectrum Metals (AS: SPX), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atrum-coal-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9553:1" rel="noopener">Atrum Coal Nl (ATU AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alkane-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19111:1" rel="noopener">Alkane Resources (ALK AU), Blackcat (ASX: BC8), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cardinal-resources-ltd-9e1d58d4-8d9b-48dd-a059-3f04f896e3ee" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28182:1" rel="noopener">Cardinal Resources Ltd (CDV CN), Bellevue Gold (ASX: BGL), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/breaker-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19210:1" rel="noopener">Breaker Resources Nl (BRB AU)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cardinal-resources-ltd-9e1d58d4-8d9b-48dd-a059-3f04f896e3ee" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28182:1" rel="noopener"> </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azumah-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5124:1" rel="noopener">      </a>
</li>
</ul>


Iron Ore fallen &gt;27% in nine days, trader driven, as opposed to fundamentals
Chinese iron ore consumption growth &gt;4% over the pcp
Supply shortages structural, limited capacity for near-term iron ore expansion
Retain BUY recommendation on FMG, Rio Tinto, BHP
Change SELL recommendation on Vale to HOLD
China actively exploring demand-side solutions, increased infrastructure investment
Yuan devaluation unlikely to adversely impact domestic seaborne iron ore demand
Decline in the LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent) price accelerating
Re-iterate SELL on all Lithium Explorers

Fortescue Metals (FMG AU), Vale SA (VALE US), Bhp Billiton Ltd (Adr) (BHP US), Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU), Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU, Pensana Metals (PM8 AU), Peel Mining Ltd (PEX AU), Azumah Resources (AZM AU), Ausmex (ASX: AMG), Navarre Minerals (NML AU), Ekorre Resources (ASX: ERX), Bardoc (ASX: BDC), Emerald Resources Nl (EMR AU), Vango Mining (VAN AU), Emmerson Resources (ERM AU), Firestone Diamonds (FDI LN), Alliance Resources (AGS AU), Blackstone Minerals Ltd (BSX AU), Spectrum Metals (AS: SPX), Atrum Coal Nl (ATU AU), Alkane Resources (ALK AU), Blackcat (ASX: BC8), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), Cardinal Resources Ltd (CDV CN), Bellevue Gold (ASX: BGL), Breaker Resources Nl (BRB AU)       



New J Hutton – Exploration Report Pt 1 (Weeks Ending 02/08/19)

Australia

Cardinal Resources Limited operates as a mineral exploration and development company. The Company develops multiple projects through expansion drilling programs, pre-feasibility studies, and metallurgical test work. Cardinal Resources serves customers in Australia, Canada, and West Africa.

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Cardinal Resources (CDV AU)

Shandong's Competing Offer For Cardinal

Back on the 16 March, Cardinal Resources Ltd (CDV CN) announced the receipt of a non-binding Offer from Nord Gold SE (Nordgold) at A$0.45775/share....

David Blennerhassett

New J Hutton – Exploration Report Pt 1 (Weeks Ending 02/08/19)

Iron Ore fallen >27% in nine days, trader driven, as opposed to fundamentals Chinese iron ore consumption growth >4% over the pcp Supply...

Gaius King

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