Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

In the middle of July we noted that Square Enix was benefitting from increased streamer interest in FFXIV at the expense of World of Warcraft. This has continued and stands to benefit Square Enix significantly but this impact does not appear to be priced in yet.

In the middle of July we noted that Square Enix was benefitting from increased streamer interest in FFXIV at the expense of World of Warcraft. This has continued and stands to benefit Square Enix significantly but this impact does not appear to be priced in yet.

Square Enix – The Market STILL Has Not Priced in the FFXIV Boom

Over the last week it has been revealed that not only will Monster Hunter Rise be coming to the PC on Jan 12th, but also that both the Switch and PC versions will receive an expansion pack in summer 2022. Our expectations for both are high.

Over the last week it has been revealed that not only will Monster Hunter Rise be coming to the PC on Jan 12th, but also that both the Switch and PC versions will receive an expansion pack in summer 2022. Our expectations for both are high.

Capcom handily beat consensus estimates at 1Q with revenue of ¥48.4bn (+27.8%) and OP of ¥23.6bn (+37.4%). Consensus had been as low as ¥13.4bn in early May so the beat is significant. Yet, it failed to meet our ¥25-30bn on account of a write-off of some game assets (“several billion yen”) and deferring revenue for RE8 due to free DLC which we had not expected. Without those factors we believe OP would have come extremely close to ¥30bn. We remain confident that ¥60bn in OP is on the cards for the full year though it is plausible that Capcom could push out sales into next FY and come in slightly below that.

Capcom handily beat consensus estimates at 1Q with revenue of ¥48.4bn (+27.8%) and OP of ¥23.6bn (+37.4%). Consensus had been as low as ¥13.4bn in early May so the beat is significant. Yet, it failed to meet our ¥25-30bn on account of a write-off of some game assets (“several billion yen”) and deferring revenue for RE8 due to free DLC which we had not expected. Without those factors we believe OP would have come extremely close to ¥30bn. We remain confident that ¥60bn in OP is on the cards for the full year though it is plausible that Capcom could push out sales into next FY and come in slightly below that.

Capcom – On Track for ¥60bn in OP This Year

Capcom’s share price has been stubbornly weak, being roughly flat compared to the level prior to its FY results despite much good news on sales volumes. This creates the potential for a strong move into 1Q earnings as we expect an extremely large beat vs. consensus.

Capcom’s share price has been stubbornly weak, being roughly flat compared to the level prior to its FY results despite much good news on sales volumes. This creates the potential for a strong move into 1Q earnings as we expect an extremely large beat vs. consensus.

Capcom posted FY revenue of ¥95.3bn in line with consensus at ¥95.1bn and OP of ¥34.6bn, 7.8% above consensus of ¥32.1bn. For next FY Capcom is guiding for ¥42bn in OP on just ¥100bn in revenue whereas consensus is at ¥114bn and ¥41bn respectively. Thus on the surface, this looks like a moderate beat and reasonable guidance, but things look significantly stronger below the surface.

Capcom posted FY revenue of ¥95.3bn in line with consensus at ¥95.1bn and OP of ¥34.6bn, 7.8% above consensus of ¥32.1bn. For next FY Capcom is guiding for ¥42bn in OP on just ¥100bn in revenue whereas consensus is at ¥114bn and ¥41bn respectively. Thus on the surface, this looks like a moderate beat and reasonable guidance, but things look significantly stronger below the surface.

Capcom – Looking Good and Better Than It Looks

Japan

CAPCOM CO., LTD. develops consumer video game software.  The Company also develops, manufactures, markets, and leases arcade game machines.  Capcom also operates amusement facilities.

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Capcom Co Ltd (9697 JP)

Square Enix – The Market STILL Has Not Priced in the FFXIV Boom

In the middle of July we noted that Square Enix was benefitting from increased streamer interest in FFXIV at the expense of World of Warcraft. This...

Mio Kato

Capcom – Monster Hunter Rising Onto PC

Monster Hunter Rise will be coming to PC on Jan 12th and both the Switch and PC versions will receive an expansion pack in summer 2022. Our...

Mio Kato

Capcom – On Track for ¥60bn in OP This Year

Capcom posted blowout numbers in 1Q and looks on course to hit ¥60bn in OP barring profit hiding even as its cash pile approaches ¥100bn.

Mio Kato

Capcom – 1Q Tracking Well

We see potential for a strong move into 1Q earnings for Capcom as we expect an extremely large beat vs. consensus due to strong volumes for RE8 and...

Mio Kato

Capcom – Looking Good and Better Than It Looks

On the surface, Capcom results look like a moderate beat and reasonable guidance, but things look significantly stronger below the surface.

Mio Kato

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