Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>On Friday 13 May, two days after earnings, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capcom-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1459:1" rel="noopener">Capcom Co Ltd (9697 JP)</a> announced a share buyback via Tender Offer from its CEO. </li>
<li>The Announcement talks about how buying the shares back<em> "contributes to the improvement of capital efficiency such as earnings per share (EPS) and return on equity (ROE) of the Company."</em>
</li>
<li>Then another company announcement erases 99% of that accretion, and money out the door. ROE goes up because cash goes out, and pro-forma EPS rises from ¥161.59 to ¥161.61. Whoopee!</li>
</ul>


On Friday 13 May, two days after earnings, Capcom Co Ltd (9697 JP) announced a share buyback via Tender Offer from its CEO. 
The Announcement talks about how buying the shares back "contributes to the improvement of capital efficiency such as earnings per share (EPS) and return on equity (ROE) of the Company."

Then another company announcement erases 99% of that accretion, and money out the door. ROE goes up because cash goes out, and pro-forma EPS rises from ¥161.59 to ¥161.61. Whoopee!


Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Memory names with high exposures to Micon such as Micronics will be back in focus.  </li>
<li>Microsoft paying overs for stable nuclear energy should put the spotlight back onto UPS and help lift Fuji Electric once again. </li>
<li>Capcom's Monster Hunter Wilds looks fully priced and with the TGS about to come and go this this weekend, further catalysts are lacking with the stock close to ATH. </li>
</ul>


Memory names with high exposures to Micon such as Micronics will be back in focus.  
Microsoft paying overs for stable nuclear energy should put the spotlight back onto UPS and help lift Fuji Electric once again. 
Capcom's Monster Hunter Wilds looks fully priced and with the TGS about to come and go this this weekend, further catalysts are lacking with the stock close to ATH. 


Japan Morning Connection: Memory Related in Focus After Knock-Out Numbers for Micron.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The data observation period is done. No rank changes in the top candidates since mid-Jan. Capping for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> is confirmed. </li>
<li>For me, it is 2 or 3 ADDs, depending. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> is still tops. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> second. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> third.</li>
<li>Kokusai is +26.7% in 5 weeks since I <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kokusai-electric-6525-upcoming-lockup-expiry-and-big-index-demand" target="_blank" rel="noopener">wrote</a> bullishly, despite news/confirmation of getting the boot from a global index at end-Feb. Baycurrent is +39.7% (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/baycurrent-consulting-6532-high-growth-ok-multiple-big-index-inclusion-coming-up" target="_blank" rel="noopener">link</a>). Now we count flows.</li>
</ul>


The data observation period is done. No rank changes in the top candidates since mid-Jan. Capping for Fast Retailing (9983 JP) is confirmed. 
For me, it is 2 or 3 ADDs, depending. Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) is still tops. BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) second. Shift Inc (3697 JP) third.
Kokusai is +26.7% in 5 weeks since I wrote bullishly, despite news/confirmation of getting the boot from a global index at end-Feb. Baycurrent is +39.7% (link). Now we count flows.


[Quiddity Index Feb25] Nikkei 225 Mar Rebal: 2 or 3 IN, 2 or 3 OUT, ~$3bn 1-Way, 1 Squeeze.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in Jan9,2025 report how we viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US. </li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly, and now both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 are coiling just below all-time highs, likely setting up for major breakouts. ACWI is now breaking out.</li>
<li>DXY and 10-Year Treasury yield are both topping, a crucial risk-on signal for global equities. More and more countries breaking out. Actionable Themes: Technology, Services, Communications, Industrials, Gold Miners, Financials</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in Jan9,2025 report how we viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US. 
$116 support held perfectly, and now both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 are coiling just below all-time highs, likely setting up for major breakouts. ACWI is now breaking out.
DXY and 10-Year Treasury yield are both topping, a crucial risk-on signal for global equities. More and more countries breaking out. Actionable Themes: Technology, Services, Communications, Industrials, Gold Miners, Financials


More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-up-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36232:1" rel="noopener">Shift Up (462870 KS)</a> raised around US$320m in its South Korean IPO, after pricing at the top. Around US$1.2bn worth of shares will be released from their lockup soon.</li>
<li>Shift Up is a South Korean games developer, which as released three games so far for the global markets.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Shift Up (462870 KS) raised around US$320m in its South Korean IPO, after pricing at the top. Around US$1.2bn worth of shares will be released from their lockup soon.
Shift Up is a South Korean games developer, which as released three games so far for the global markets.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Shift Up IPO Lockup - US$1.2bn Lockup Release of Strategic, Employees and IPO Investors

Japan

CAPCOM CO., LTD. develops consumer video game software.  The Company also develops, manufactures, markets, and leases arcade game machines.  Capcom also operates amusement facilities.

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Capcom Co Ltd (9697 JP)

A Word on The Capcom (9697) Buyback

Two days after earnings (which were taken very well (agreeing with Mio)), Capcom (9697) announced a buyback. It claimed capital efficiency and EPS...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index Feb25] Nikkei 225 Mar Rebal: 2 or 3 IN, 2 or 3 OUT, ~$3bn 1-Way, 1 Squeeze.

This is the last Nikkei rebal preview before announcement. We have capping confirmed for Fastie, and the three ADDs have been doing well. There are...

Travis Lundy

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI $EAFE $EEM. More buys in China; Germany continues to lead Europe higher. Will...

Vermilion Research

Shift Up IPO Lockup - US$1.2bn Lockup Release of Strategic, Employees and IPO Investors

Shift Up (462870 KS) raised around US$320m in its South Korean IPO, after pricing at the top. Around US$1.2bn worth of shares will be released from...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

A Word on The Capcom (9697) Buyback

Two days after earnings (which were taken very well (agreeing with Mio)), Capcom (9697) announced a buyback. It claimed capital efficiency and EPS...

Travis Lundy

Japan Morning Connection: Memory Related in Focus After Knock-Out Numbers for Micron.

Memory back in focus thanks to Micron numbers showing there is plenty of AI runway left, while Fuji Electric and Kansai Electric may see renewed...

Andrew Jackson

[Quiddity Index Feb25] Nikkei 225 Mar Rebal: 2 or 3 IN, 2 or 3 OUT, ~$3bn 1-Way, 1 Squeeze.

This is the last Nikkei rebal preview before announcement. We have capping confirmed for Fastie, and the three ADDs have been doing well. There are...

Travis Lundy

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI $EAFE $EEM. More buys in China; Germany continues to lead Europe higher. Will...

Vermilion Research

Shift Up IPO Lockup - US$1.2bn Lockup Release of Strategic, Employees and IPO Investors

Shift Up (462870 KS) raised around US$320m in its South Korean IPO, after pricing at the top. Around US$1.2bn worth of shares will be released from...

Sumeet Singh