Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>HDFC Bank results to FYE24 are improving and we retain it as a buy, with pre-provision returns improving slightly QoQ and best in peer group NPL ratio and coverage</li>
<li>Bank of Baroda is our core value Indian bank pick, for its undemanding valuations, healthy ROE and potential for NPL improvements</li>
<li>Bandhan bank is a potential contrarian pick for its value attributes; we are cautious on State Bank of India for its delinquency risks, low core capital ratio </li>
</ul>


HDFC Bank results to FYE24 are improving and we retain it as a buy, with pre-provision returns improving slightly QoQ and best in peer group NPL ratio and coverage
Bank of Baroda is our core value Indian bank pick, for its undemanding valuations, healthy ROE and potential for NPL improvements
Bandhan bank is a potential contrarian pick for its value attributes; we are cautious on State Bank of India for its delinquency risks, low core capital ratio 


Indian Banks Screener FYE24, Part 1: We like Quality Name HDFC Bank, Baroda Is the Value Pick

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank (CBK IN)</a> should replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX)</a> at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy nearly 2 days of ADV in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank (CBK IN)</a> while selling over 1 day of ADV in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank (CBK IN)</a> is one of the best performing banking stocks while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a> has been the worst performer over the last two years.</li>
</ul>



Canara Bank (CBK IN) should replace Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) in the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) at the September rebalance.
Passive trackers will need to buy nearly 2 days of ADV in Canara Bank (CBK IN) while selling over 1 day of ADV in Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN). 

Canara Bank (CBK IN) is one of the best performing banking stocks while Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) has been the worst performer over the last two years.


NIFTY Bank Index Rebalance Preview: Canara Bank Still Cheap; Double Deletion for Bandhan?

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the June 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>As things stand, there could be one index change for the SENSEX index but there is room for these names to change during the remainder of the reference period.</li>
<li>Separately, there could be five ADDs/DELs for the BSE 100 index and six ADDs/DELs for the BSE 200 index.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the June 2024 index rebal event.
As things stand, there could be one index change for the SENSEX index but there is room for these names to change during the remainder of the reference period.
Separately, there could be five ADDs/DELs for the BSE 100 index and six ADDs/DELs for the BSE 200 index.


Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Jun 24: Who Will Replace Wipro?

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

<ul>
<li>India's Credit Landscape has changed and is facing structural and regulatory challenges.</li>
<li>The Indian regulator (RBI), particularly in its oversight of underwriting practices and the behavior of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs), is commendably proactive, positioning it ahead of the curve.</li>
<li>We expect more such steps in other parts of the credit funnel. The recent crack down along with the stock underperformance is here to stay and possibility intensify. </li>
</ul>


India's Credit Landscape has changed and is facing structural and regulatory challenges.
The Indian regulator (RBI), particularly in its oversight of underwriting practices and the behavior of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs), is commendably proactive, positioning it ahead of the curve.
We expect more such steps in other parts of the credit funnel. The recent crack down along with the stock underperformance is here to stay and possibility intensify. 


Trouble in Paradise | India Credit Landscape & Wrath of the Regulator

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/union-bank-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:546:1" rel="noopener">Union Bank Of India (UNBK IN)</a> is looking to raise up to INR 30bn (US$362m) with the floor price set at INR 142.78/share and a maximum discount of 5%.</li>
<li>The stock has run up a lot and with index inclusion around the corner, this is as good a time as any to issue stock.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/union-bank-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:546:1" rel="noopener">Union Bank Of India (UNBK IN)</a> trades cheaper than peers and could continue to outperform over the near-term.</li>
</ul>



Union Bank Of India (UNBK IN) is looking to raise up to INR 30bn (US$362m) with the floor price set at INR 142.78/share and a maximum discount of 5%.
The stock has run up a lot and with index inclusion around the corner, this is as good a time as any to issue stock.

Union Bank Of India (UNBK IN) trades cheaper than peers and could continue to outperform over the near-term.


Union Bank of India (UNBK IN) Placement: Using Index Inclusion Well

India

Canara Bank Ltd. provides a full range of banking services throughout India. The Group's activities include retail banking, commercial and personal banking, investment management, treasury & NRI services, cash management and assorted ATM facilities.

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Canara Bank (CBK IN)

Indian Banks Screener FYE24, Part 1: We like Quality Name HDFC Bank, Baroda Is the Value Pick

We provide new 4QFYE24 data on 4 of the 10 Indian banks that have reported in our enlarged peer group; we rate HDFC Bank a buy, as well as Baroda...

Victor Galliano

NIFTY Bank Index Rebalance Preview: Canara Bank Still Cheap; Double Deletion for Bandhan?

Canara Bank should replace Bandhan Bank in the Nifty Bank Index in Sept. Canara Bank still trades cheaper than its peers. Bandhan's recent price...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Jun 24: Who Will Replace Wipro?

I see Wipro as a high conviction DEL for SENSEX in June 2024 but there are questions marks over who will replace Wipro as size-based rankings and...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Trouble in Paradise | India Credit Landscape & Wrath of the Regulator

India's credit landscape is evolving with regulatory challenges, but the RBI's proactive oversight of NBFCs sets it ahead of the curve, with more...

Pranav Bhavsar

Union Bank of India (UNBK IN) Placement: Using Index Inclusion Well

Union Bank of India is looking to raise INR 30bn (US$362m) via a QIP. The stock is near its highs and index inclusion is a week away. The stock...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Indian Banks Screener FYE24, Part 1: We like Quality Name HDFC Bank, Baroda Is the Value Pick

We provide new 4QFYE24 data on 4 of the 10 Indian banks that have reported in our enlarged peer group; we rate HDFC Bank a buy, as well as Baroda...

Victor Galliano

NIFTY Bank Index Rebalance Preview: Canara Bank Still Cheap; Double Deletion for Bandhan?

Canara Bank should replace Bandhan Bank in the Nifty Bank Index in Sept. Canara Bank still trades cheaper than its peers. Bandhan's recent price...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Jun 24: Who Will Replace Wipro?

I see Wipro as a high conviction DEL for SENSEX in June 2024 but there are questions marks over who will replace Wipro as size-based rankings and...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Trouble in Paradise | India Credit Landscape & Wrath of the Regulator

​India's credit landscape is evolving with regulatory challenges, but the RBI's proactive oversight of NBFCs sets it ahead of the curve, with more...

Pranav Bhavsar

Union Bank of India (UNBK IN) Placement: Using Index Inclusion Well

Union Bank of India is looking to raise INR 30bn (US$362m) via a QIP. The stock is near its highs and index inclusion is a week away. The stock...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Jun 24: Who Will Replace Wipro?

India's credit landscape is evolving with regulatory challenges, but the RBI's proactive oversight of NBFCs sets it ahead of the curve, with more...