Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX Pulls Back for 2nd day as Spy Balloons dominate - mkts just stretched;  Google responds to ChatGPT with BARD; Dell cuts headcount as PC struggle continues</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Fut flat vs Cash; USDJPY 132.63; Govt denies BOJ-Amamiya claim(really !); Son to skip Softban earnings call; Masa Takafumi wins Grammy with Sakura!</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET. MHI  formalizes exit from Spacejet. No surprise as it has been on ice for 2 years.   Opportunity to put a positive spin on the $7bn failure.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX Pulls Back for 2nd day as Spy Balloons dominate - mkts just stretched;  Google responds to ChatGPT with BARD; Dell cuts headcount as PC struggle continues
JAPAN. NKY Fut flat vs Cash; USDJPY 132.63; Govt denies BOJ-Amamiya claim(really !); Son to skip Softban earnings call; Masa Takafumi wins Grammy with Sakura!
DAILY NUGGET. MHI  formalizes exit from Spacejet. No surprise as it has been on ice for 2 years.   Opportunity to put a positive spin on the $7bn failure.


Good Morning Japan | Spy Balloons?? SPX Holds; Google Responds with BARD; BOJ AMAMIYA Story Refuted!

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Japan’s largest snacks maker, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/calbee-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17054:1" rel="noopener">Calbee Inc (2229 JP)</a> has raised prices by 10-20% for almost 75% of its product range.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, main inputs such as potatoes and palm oil have seen extensive price drops in the past few months.</li>
<li>With margin pressures alleviating from both angles (revenue &amp; cost), we think Calbee’s FY24 OP is bound to exceed ¥30.0bn.</li>
</ul>


Japan’s largest snacks maker, Calbee Inc (2229 JP) has raised prices by 10-20% for almost 75% of its product range.
Meanwhile, main inputs such as potatoes and palm oil have seen extensive price drops in the past few months.
With margin pressures alleviating from both angles (revenue &amp; cost), we think Calbee’s FY24 OP is bound to exceed ¥30.0bn.


Calbee’s FY24 OP Is Bound to Exceed ¥30.0bn

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/calbee-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17054:1" rel="noopener">Calbee Inc (2229 JP)</a>’s share price fell 4% today from the top end of the trend channel as 2QFY23 OP fell short of consensus by ¥658m to ¥4.9bn.</li>
<li>There was also a ¥3.5bn downgrade to full-year OP guidance on higher-than-expected energy and raw material costs. However, this seems too conservative, especially with 10-20% price hikes in September-November.</li>
<li>In addition, share buy-backs are starting to become a regular part of shareholder returns with ¥12.0bn per-year in share buybacks in the previous fiscal year and the current fiscal year.</li>
</ul>



Calbee Inc (2229 JP)’s share price fell 4% today from the top end of the trend channel as 2QFY23 OP fell short of consensus by ¥658m to ¥4.9bn.
There was also a ¥3.5bn downgrade to full-year OP guidance on higher-than-expected energy and raw material costs. However, this seems too conservative, especially with 10-20% price hikes in September-November.
In addition, share buy-backs are starting to become a regular part of shareholder returns with ¥12.0bn per-year in share buybacks in the previous fiscal year and the current fiscal year.


Calbee – Price Hikes to Deliver Upside As Buybacks Provide Downside Protection

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.</li>
<li>Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).</li>
<li>There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they <em>are</em> in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.</li>
</ul>


Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.
Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).
There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they are in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.


MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-leapmotor-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35968:1" rel="noopener">Leapmotor (9863 HK)</a> raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO. LM is a smart EV company based in China, founded in 2015.</li>
<li>As of end Jun 22, it had delivered a total of 104,829 cars with most of its sales coming from its mini units, T03.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the demand for the deal and other trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Leapmotor (9863 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO. LM is a smart EV company based in China, founded in 2015.
As of end Jun 22, it had delivered a total of 104,829 cars with most of its sales coming from its mini units, T03.
In this note, we will talk about the demand for the deal and other trading dynamics.


Leapmotor IPO - Weak Demand but Concentrated Allocation

Japan

CALBEE, Inc. manufactures a wide range of snack foods using potato, wheat, and corn as a main ingredient. The company also manufactures bakery products and cereals.

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Calbee Inc (2229 JP)

Good Morning Japan | Spy Balloons?? SPX Holds; Google Responds with BARD; BOJ AMAMIYA Story Refuted!

NKY Fut flat vs Cash; USDJPY 132.63; Govt denies BOJ-Amamiya claim(really !); Son to skip Softban earnings call; Masa Takafumi wins Grammy with...

Mark Chadwick

Calbee’s FY24 OP Is Bound to Exceed ¥30.0bn

With both pricing growth and lower input costs pushing up the company’s earnings, we think Calbee’s FY24 OP could easily surpass ¥30.0bn to beat...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Calbee – Price Hikes to Deliver Upside As Buybacks Provide Downside Protection

There was also a ¥3.5bn downgrade to full-year OP guidance on energy and raw material costs growth. However, this downgrade seems too conservative,...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

Bounce potential given $ACWX $EFA testing downtrend channel supports, but it would likely be a short-term trading opportunity due to the fact that...

Vermilion Research

Leapmotor IPO - Weak Demand but Concentrated Allocation

Leapmotor (9863 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO. LM is a smart EV company based in China, founded in 2015.

Sumeet Singh

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