IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cainiao-smart-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36859:1" rel="noopener">Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK)</a>, a global leader in e-commerce logistics, has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise at least US$1 billion at a US$15-20 billion valuation.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cainiao-smart-logistics-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:115312" rel="noopener">Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on declining global cross-border market share, China logistics decelerating growth, high related-party transactions, and FCF burn. </li>
</ul>



Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK), a global leader in e-commerce logistics, has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise at least US$1 billion at a US$15-20 billion valuation.
In Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on declining global cross-border market share, China logistics decelerating growth, high related-party transactions, and FCF burn. 


Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bear Case

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ecopro-materials" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36806:1" rel="noopener">EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cainiao-smart-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36859:1" rel="noopener">Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vng-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26716:1" rel="noopener">VNG (VinaGame) (VNG US)</a> IPOs</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">Eoflow (294090 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pact-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:692:1" rel="noopener">Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/symbio-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20292:1" rel="noopener">Symbio Holdings (SYM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-international-securities-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13153:1" rel="noopener">Haitong International Securities Group (665 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS), Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK), VNG (VinaGame) (VNG US) IPOs
Event-Driven developments - Eoflow (294090 KS), Azure Minerals (AZS AU), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), Symbio Holdings (SYM AU), Haitong International Securities Group (665 HK), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US). 


Weekly Deals Digest (29 Oct) - Eoflow, Haitong Intl, Hollysys, Azure, Symbio, EcoPro, Cainiao

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

J&T Global Express  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a>, a global logistics service provider, raised around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 22.5% market share as per 2022 parcel volume.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK), a global logistics service provider, raised around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO.
As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 22.5% market share as per 2022 parcel volume.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.


J&T Global Express IPO Trading - Tepid Demand Despite the Team Effort

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this month's Tracker, we focus on a new price war among the 'sort &amp; transport' names</li>
<li>Q3 ASPs at these express companies fell by -12% Y/Y, and volume growth softened</li>
<li>We believe margins are under increasing pressure in China's mainstream express segment</li>
</ul>


In this month's Tracker, we focus on a new price war among the 'sort &amp; transport' names
Q3 ASPs at these express companies fell by -12% Y/Y, and volume growth softened
We believe margins are under increasing pressure in China's mainstream express segment


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | A New Price War Among China's 'Sort & Transport' Express Names

<ul>
<li>In this insight we first consider which comparables are the most appropriate for CaiNiao</li>
<li>We then discuss which valuation multiples make sense, plus some potential pitfalls </li>
<li>We believe CaiNiao and their bankers could justify a valuation up to 310 bn CNY</li>
</ul>


In this insight we first consider which comparables are the most appropriate for CaiNiao
We then discuss which valuation multiples make sense, plus some potential pitfalls 
We believe CaiNiao and their bankers could justify a valuation up to 310 bn CNY


CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 3 | Key Comps, Valuation Multiples | 310 Bn CNY Justifiable

Hong Kong

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network Ltd. operates as an investment company. The Company provides equity investments, investment management, and other services. Cainiao Smart Logistics Network is located in Hong Kong.

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network (1437124D HK)

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Cainiao Smart Logistics Network (1437124D HK)

Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on declining global cross-border market share, China logistics decelerating growth, high related-party transactions, and FCF burn.

Arun George

Weekly Deals Digest (29 Oct) - Eoflow, Haitong Intl, Hollysys, Azure, Symbio, EcoPro, Cainiao

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Eoflow, Haitong Intl, Azure Minerals, Pact Group, Symbio, Hollysys) and ECM (EcoPro...

Arun George

J&T Global Express IPO Trading - Tepid Demand Despite the Team Effort

J&T Global Express (1519 HK), a global logistics service provider, raised around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | A New Price War Among China's 'Sort & Transport' Express Names

In this insight we discuss a developing price war among China's 'sort and transport' express names, which likely added to margin pressures on these...

Tracking Traffic

CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 3 | Key Comps, Valuation Multiples | 310 Bn CNY Justifiable

In this insight we present an approach to valuing CaiNiao, including which comps and multiples make the most sense. We believe a valuation of up to...

Tracking Traffic

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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