Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.</li>
<li>Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)</li>
<li>As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.
Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)
As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners


Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Zydus Lifesciences Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zydus-lifesciences-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12914:1" rel="noopener">Zydus Lifesciences Ltd (ZYDUSLIF IN)</a> reported total revenue of INR43.6B, up by 20% YoY and 6% QoQ, in Q3FY23. Key markets, India and the U.S. continued to deliver robust performance.</li>
<li>U.S. business is on track to register QoQ growth in near-term, with the launches of new products. Zydus plans to launch 2–3 transdermal products in U.S. in FY24.</li>
<li>For its India business, the company aims to outperform the industry growth sustainably in the medium to long term. Lipaglyn is expected to be among top 25 products of India.</li>
</ul>



Zydus Lifesciences Ltd (ZYDUSLIF IN) reported total revenue of INR43.6B, up by 20% YoY and 6% QoQ, in Q3FY23. Key markets, India and the U.S. continued to deliver robust performance.
U.S. business is on track to register QoQ growth in near-term, with the launches of new products. Zydus plans to launch 2–3 transdermal products in U.S. in FY24.
For its India business, the company aims to outperform the industry growth sustainably in the medium to long term. Lipaglyn is expected to be among top 25 products of India.


Zydus Lifesciences (ZYDUSLIF IN): Strong India and US Momentum to Improve Margin and Drive Growth

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Nearly halfway through the review period, we see 10 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap and vice versa, and 9 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap and vice versa.</li>
<li>Financials are poised to be the biggest gainers in the reshuffle with 6 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap and 5 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap.</li>
<li>Over the last 6 months, stocks expected to migrate upward have outperformed stocks that are expected to migrate downward., though there has been a downward drift this year.</li>
</ul>


Nearly halfway through the review period, we see 10 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap and vice versa, and 9 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap and vice versa.
Financials are poised to be the biggest gainers in the reshuffle with 6 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap and 5 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap.
Over the last 6 months, stocks expected to migrate upward have outperformed stocks that are expected to migrate downward., though there has been a downward drift this year.


India: AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (June 2023)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN)</a> entered into a definitive agreement to acquire the U.S. retail generic prescription product portfolio of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a> for $105M.</li>
<li>The deal will add approximately 85 approved generic products and four pipeline products. For the fiscal year ending June 30, 2022, this portfolio generated revenue of $111M.</li>
<li>Considering the revenue potential, the acquisition price seems to be reasonable. Being a high margin and limited competition portfolio, the acquisition will be earnings accretive for Dr. Reddy’s.</li>
</ul>



Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN) entered into a definitive agreement to acquire the U.S. retail generic prescription product portfolio of Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) for $105M.
The deal will add approximately 85 approved generic products and four pipeline products. For the fiscal year ending June 30, 2022, this portfolio generated revenue of $111M.
Considering the revenue potential, the acquisition price seems to be reasonable. Being a high margin and limited competition portfolio, the acquisition will be earnings accretive for Dr. Reddy’s.


Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN): New Acquisition to Bolster US Generic Product Portfolio

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mankind-pharma-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36389:1" rel="noopener">Mankind Pharma</a> is looking to raise around US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>MP is a pharmaceutical company engaged in developing, manufacturing and marketing a range of pharmaceutical formulations across various acute and chronic therapeutic areas, as well as several consumer healthcare products.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company background and undertaken a peer comparison in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>



Mankind Pharma is looking to raise around US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO.
MP is a pharmaceutical company engaged in developing, manufacturing and marketing a range of pharmaceutical formulations across various acute and chronic therapeutic areas, as well as several consumer healthcare products.
We have looked at the company background and undertaken a peer comparison in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about valuations.


Mankind Pharma Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuations

India

Cadila Healthcare Ltd. manufactures, and markets healthcare solutions ranging from formulations, active pharmaceutical ingredients, vaccines, diagnostics, health and dietetic foods, animal healthcare to cosmeceuticals.  The Company's products are available in tablets, capsules, injections, liquids, dry syrups, powders, granules, and ointments.

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Zydus Lifesciences Ltd (ZYDUSLIF IN)

Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

$ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends. Despite this bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to...

Vermilion Research

Zydus Lifesciences (ZYDUSLIF IN): Strong India and US Momentum to Improve Margin and Drive Growth

Zydus’ key markets of US and India are on double-digit growth path. Riding on new launches and strong performance of base portfolio, the company is...

Tina Banerjee

India: AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (June 2023)

Nearly halfway through the review period, we see 10 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap and vice versa, 9 from SmallCap to MidCap and vice versa....

Brian Freitas

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN): New Acquisition to Bolster US Generic Product Portfolio

Dr. Reddy's is acquiring the US generic prescription product portfolio of Mayne Pharma for upfront cash consideration of up to $90M. The acquired...

Tina Banerjee

Mankind Pharma Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuations

Mankind Pharma is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we will talk about valuations.

Sumeet Singh

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