Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> market share in China has decreased and its 3Q23 operational data suggested it offered discounts to defend its market share. </li>
<li>Albeit losing some market share, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> operational data is much more solid, even expanded its profit margin during a difficult environment in China. </li>
<li>Tesla share price has outpaced BYD's this year by 70%, it should reverse in the next year.</li>
</ul>



Tesla Motors (TSLA US) market share in China has decreased and its 3Q23 operational data suggested it offered discounts to defend its market share. 
Albeit losing some market share, BYD (1211 HK) operational data is much more solid, even expanded its profit margin during a difficult environment in China. 
Tesla share price has outpaced BYD's this year by 70%, it should reverse in the next year.


2024 High Conviction: Long BYD and Short Tesla

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This is the somewhat-brand-spanking-new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.</li>
<li>The same few names continue at the top of the gross flows list - Kweichow Moutai, Contemporary Amperex, Zhongji Innolight, etc, but the nets are changing (and Chongqing Changan)</li>
<li>Last week, NORTHBOUND were again net sellers (RMB -3.16bn), but Shanghai saw net buys. The top two flows were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chongqing-changan-automobi-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13472:1" rel="noopener">Chongqing Changan Automobile Company (200625 CH)</a> to buy, BYD to sell.</li>
</ul>


This is the somewhat-brand-spanking-new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.
The same few names continue at the top of the gross flows list - Kweichow Moutai, Contemporary Amperex, Zhongji Innolight, etc, but the nets are changing (and Chongqing Changan)
Last week, NORTHBOUND were again net sellers (RMB -3.16bn), but Shanghai saw net buys. The top two flows were Chongqing Changan Automobile Company (200625 CH) to buy, BYD to sell.


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 24 Nov 23): Chongqing Changan (Bought) Vs BYD (Sold)

<ul>
<li>This is the somewhat-brand-spanking-new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.</li>
<li>The same five names continue at the top of the gross flows list - Kweichow Moutai, Contemporary Amperex, Wuliangye Yibin, Foxconn Industrial, and BYD. Nets are still smaller.</li>
<li>Last week, NORTHBOUND returned to net OUTflow after the previous week saw the first net buy in 3mos. This week saw RMB 7.95bn of net NORTHBOUND selling.</li>
</ul>


This is the somewhat-brand-spanking-new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.
The same five names continue at the top of the gross flows list - Kweichow Moutai, Contemporary Amperex, Wuliangye Yibin, Foxconn Industrial, and BYD. Nets are still smaller.
Last week, NORTHBOUND returned to net OUTflow after the previous week saw the first net buy in 3mos. This week saw RMB 7.95bn of net NORTHBOUND selling.


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 10 Nov 23): Back To Net Sales (Ping An, Eoptolink, Innolight)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Upgrade to BUY. Although BYD-A’s share price has been between -15% and +13% of our previous target price of RMB 270, our major concerns with a prior HOLD rating were more about model cycle and margin dent from a potential overcapacity.</li><li>It turned out that BYD’s sales volume growth has lasted longer than expected and its earnings have been more solid than our prior forecasts.</li><li>We now think that such trends could continue in the next few quarters, aided by premium models, exports and greater economies of scale. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Upgrade to BUY. Although BYD-A’s share price has been between -15% and +13% of our previous target price of RMB 270, our major concerns with a prior HOLD rating were more about model cycle and margin dent from a potential overcapacity.It turned out that BYD’s sales volume growth has lasted longer than expected and its earnings have been more solid than our prior forecasts.We now think that such trends could continue in the next few quarters, aided by premium models, exports and greater economies of scale. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BYD Company (002594 CH) – Profit May Continue to Beat in Next Few Quarters

<ul><li>Upgrade to BUY. Although BYD’s share price has been between -10% and +15% of our previous target price of HK$ 240, our major concerns with a prior HOLD rating were more about model cycle and margin dent from a potential overcapacity.</li><li>It turned out that BYD’s sales volume growth has lasted longer than expected and its earnings have been more solid than our prior forecasts.</li><li>We now think that such trends could continue in the next few quarters, aided by premium models, exports and greater economies of scale. Unlike some investors,</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Upgrade to BUY. Although BYD’s share price has been between -10% and +15% of our previous target price of HK$ 240, our major concerns with a prior HOLD rating were more about model cycle and margin dent from a potential overcapacity.It turned out that BYD’s sales volume growth has lasted longer than expected and its earnings have been more solid than our prior forecasts.We now think that such trends could continue in the next few quarters, aided by premium models, exports and greater economies of scale. Unlike some investors,Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BYD Company (1211 HK) – Profit May Continue to Beat in Next Few Quarters

China

Great Wall Motor Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pick-up trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in China under branded names. The Company also researches and develops, and manufactures principal automotive parts and components for use in the assembly of pick-up trucks and SUVs.

Guangzhou Automobile Group Company, Ltd. manufactures, sells, and services automobiles. The Company is also involved in automobile parts and components, and auto finance and related services for both overseas and domestic markets.

Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited develops, manufactures, and markets mini cars, mini sedans, full size sedans, and engines.

Chongqing Changan Automobile Company (200625 CH)

SAIC Motor Corporation Ltd., through joint ventures, manufactures and markets automobiles and related parts and accessories.

Li Auto Inc. manufactures automobiles. The Company designs, develops, and sells smart new energy electric sport utility vehicles. Li Auto conducts businesses in China.

FAW Jiefang Group Co., Ltd, through joint ventures, manufactures and markets cars and auto parts.  The Company produces automobiles, transmission systems, and engines.  FAW Car also provides auto repair and customizing services.

BAIC BluePark New Energy Technology Co.,Ltd. operates as a passenger car manufacturer. The Company engages in research, development, and marketing of new energy vehicles and power battery system. BAIC BluePark New Energy Technology conducts businesses in China.

BAIC BluePark New Energy Techn (600733 CH)

Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets bus and truck chassis, gear boxes, other auto parts, and business automobiles.

NIO Inc. manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company offers electric vehicles and parts, as well as provides battery charging services. NIO serves customers worldwide.

Dongfeng Motor Group Company Limited, through joint ventures, designs, manufactures, and markets diesel engines, light trucks, automobiles, castings, and related spare parts.

PT Astra International Tbk assembles and distributes automobiles, motorcycles, and their related spare parts.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in the mining, development of plantations, financial and information technology.

NISSAN MOTOR CO., LTD. manufactures and distributes automobiles and related parts. It also provides financing services. Nissan delivers a comprehensive range of products under various brands. The Company manufactures in Japan, the United States, Mexico, the United Kingdom and many other countries.

Honda Motor Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and distributes motorcycles, automobiles, and power products such as generators and farm machinery. The Company also operates a financial credit business. Honda Motor has manufacturing facilities in the US, Canada, the UK, France, Italy, Spain, Brazil, Mexico, India, and Thailand.

Hyundai Motor Company manufactures, sells, and exports passenger cars, trucks, and commercial vehicles. The Company also sells various auto parts and operates auto repair service centers throughout South Korea. Hyundai Motor provides financial services through its subsidiaries.

Kia Corporation manufactures, sells, and exports passenger cars, mini-buses, trucks and commercial vehicles. The Company also manufactures auto-parts and tools using hybrid electric and fuel cell technology. Kia markets its products worldwide.

Tata Motors Limited manufactures cars and commercial automotive vehicles in India. The Company designs, manufactures and sells heavy commercial, medium commercial and small commercial vehicles including trucks, tankers, vans, buses, ambulances and minibuses. Tata also manufactures small cars and sports utility vehicles.

Suzuki Motor Corporation manufactures automobiles, motorcycles, and their related parts. The Company has production facilities in USA, Japan, Taiwan, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Thailand, and Hungary.

Maruti Suzuki India Limited manufactures and exports automobiles. Maruti collaborated with Suzuki of Japan to produce affordable cars for the average Indian.

Stellantis NV manufactures and markets automobiles and commercial vehicles. The Company also produces metallurgical products and production systems for the automobile industry, as well as owns publishing and insurance companies. Stellantis serves customers worldwide.

Hero MotoCorp Ltd. designs, manufactures and distributes motorcycles. The Company's products also include motorcycle parts and accessories.

BYD Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company also researches, develops, manufactures and sells batteries, which are applied on mobile phones, cordless phones, power tools and other kinds of portable electronic devices.

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BYD (1211 HK)

2024 High Conviction: Long BYD and Short Tesla

Tesla operational data has started to crack, while BYD has gotten even better. With Tesla's share price outperformed BYD's this year by around 70%,...

Henry Soediarko

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 24 Nov 23): Chongqing Changan (Bought) Vs BYD (Sold)

Mainland Connect (NORTHBOUND) flows continue to sell net selling. This week was RMB -3.16bn. The big buy this week was Chongqing Changan, the big...

Travis Lundy

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 10 Nov 23): Back To Net Sales (Ping An, Eoptolink, Innolight)

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND flow was back to net selling last week. Top names were still top names. Property & Construction a net buy. BYD a big...

Travis Lundy

BYD Company (002594 CH) – Profit May Continue to Beat in Next Few Quarters

It turned out that BYD’s sales volume growth has lasted longer than expected and its earnings have been more solid than our prior forecasts.

CMB International

BYD Company (1211 HK) – Profit May Continue to Beat in Next Few Quarters

It turned out that BYD’s sales volume growth has lasted longer than expected and its earnings have been more solid than our prior forecasts.

CMB International

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