Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Currently, 9 stocks could be deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The deletion will lead to liquidity events where trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.</li>
<li>There has been a buildup on shorts on few stocks with minimal positioning in the other stocks. That could change once the calendar ticks over to 2025.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> is a potential inclusion to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> in March and this deletion could provide liquidity to enter a position ahead of that announcement.</li>
</ul>


Currently, 9 stocks could be deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The deletion will lead to liquidity events where trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.
There has been a buildup on shorts on few stocks with minimal positioning in the other stocks. That could change once the calendar ticks over to 2025.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) is a potential inclusion to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) in March and this deletion could provide liquidity to enter a position ahead of that announcement.


Japan: Potential Passive Selling in February

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Lacklustre numbers for both Dell and HP show tapering demand for PC's.</li>
<li>Keisei Electric Rail snubbing Murakami with another 1% Oriental Land sale?</li>
<li>Nikon analysts meeting does little to clarify the intentions of EssilorLuxottic's 8.45% stake.</li>
</ul>


Lacklustre numbers for both Dell and HP show tapering demand for PC's.
Keisei Electric Rail snubbing Murakami with another 1% Oriental Land sale?
Nikon analysts meeting does little to clarify the intentions of EssilorLuxottic's 8.45% stake.


Japan Morning Connection: AI Edge Computing Is Failing to Drive PC Demand

<ul>
<li>There are a bunch of stocks that have underperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios in August.</li>
<li>The deletion from passive portfolios will lead to a liquidity event at the end of August where passive trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.</li>
<li>Shorts have been built up on all the stocks over the last few months and the extent of the positioning varies across stocks.</li>
</ul>


There are a bunch of stocks that have underperformed the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) and their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios in August.
The deletion from passive portfolios will lead to a liquidity event at the end of August where passive trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.
Shorts have been built up on all the stocks over the last few months and the extent of the positioning varies across stocks.


Japan - Yet Another Big Round of Passive Selling Expected in August

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chilled-frozen-logistics-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40987:1" rel="noopener">Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP)</a> shares are trading 85.7% above <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/az-com-maruwa-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17280:1" rel="noopener">AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP)</a> JPY3,000 offer due to the disclosure of four counterbidders. </li>
<li>The white knight “winning” bidder can secure the Board’s recommendation if it is the highest offer (likely well below the last close) and does not result in AZ-COM Maruwa-type dis-synergies. </li>
<li>AZ-COM Maruwa would face the dilemma of bumping, particularly if the white knight bidder secures irrevocables and the Board presents a compelling case to support the white knight bidder.</li>
</ul>



Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) shares are trading 85.7% above AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP) JPY3,000 offer due to the disclosure of four counterbidders. 
The white knight “winning” bidder can secure the Board’s recommendation if it is the highest offer (likely well below the last close) and does not result in AZ-COM Maruwa-type dis-synergies. 
AZ-COM Maruwa would face the dilemma of bumping, particularly if the white knight bidder secures irrevocables and the Board presents a compelling case to support the white knight bidder.


Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099 JP): Irrational Exuberance Takes Hold

Greatview Aseptic Packaging / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yichang-hec-changjiang-pharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21040:1" rel="noopener">Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alps-logistics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3935:1" rel="noopener">Alps Logistics (9055 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ansarada-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30718:1" rel="noopener">Ansarada Group Ltd (AND AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-cross-media-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10374:1" rel="noopener">Southern Cross Media (SXL AU)</a>. </li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chilled-frozen-logistics-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40987:1" rel="noopener">Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mma-offshore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:594:1" rel="noopener">Mma Offshore (MRM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pact-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:692:1" rel="noopener">Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), Alps Logistics (9055 JP), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), Ansarada Group Ltd (AND AU), Southern Cross Media (SXL AU). 
Lowest spreads: Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP), Mma Offshore (MRM AU), Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), Alumina Ltd (AWC AU). 


Merger Arb Mondays (13 May) - GA Pack, HEC Pharma, L'Occitane, Alps Logistics, Great Eastern

Japan

BROTHER INDUSTRIES, LTD. manufactures and markets communications and office equipment.  The Company's main products include facsimiles, digital copy machines, label printers, and word processors.  Brother Industries also manufactures and sells sewing machines and other tools.  The Company operates its business worldwide.

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Brother Industries (6448 JP)

Japan: Potential Passive Selling in February

There are a bunch of stocks in Japan that could be sold by passive global investors in February. Kokusai Electric is one of them; but it is also a...

Brian Freitas

Japan Morning Connection: AI Edge Computing Is Failing to Drive PC Demand

PC demand is slowing as Dell and HP report lacklustre numbers, Keisei Electric Rail sells more Oriental Land shares, and Nikon's meeting leaves...

Andrew Jackson

Japan - Yet Another Big Round of Passive Selling Expected in August

There are a bunch of stocks in Japan that could be sold by passive global investors in August. Shorts have increased on all stocks and the extent...

Brian Freitas

Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099 JP): Irrational Exuberance Takes Hold

The shares have reached stratospheric levels on the expectation of a bidding frenzy. However, a white knight “winning” bidder would struggle to...

Arun George

Merger Arb Mondays (13 May) - GA Pack, HEC Pharma, L'Occitane, Alps Logistics, Great Eastern

This week, the highest gross spreads are HEC Pharma (58.1%), Alps Logistics (14.3%), Hollysys (12.9%), Ansarada (8.7%), Southern Cross (8.7%), QV...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan: Potential Passive Selling in February

There are a bunch of stocks in Japan that could be sold by passive global investors in February. Kokusai Electric is one of them; but it is also a...

Brian Freitas

Japan Morning Connection: AI Edge Computing Is Failing to Drive PC Demand

​PC demand is slowing as Dell and HP report lacklustre numbers, Keisei Electric Rail sells more Oriental Land shares, and Nikon's meeting leaves...

Andrew Jackson

Japan - Yet Another Big Round of Passive Selling Expected in August

There are a bunch of stocks in Japan that could be sold by passive global investors in August. Shorts have increased on all stocks and the extent...

Brian Freitas

Chilled & Frozen Logistics (9099 JP): Irrational Exuberance Takes Hold

The shares have reached stratospheric levels on the expectation of a bidding frenzy. However, a white knight “winning” bidder would struggle to...

Arun George

Merger Arb Mondays (13 May) - GA Pack, HEC Pharma, L'Occitane, Alps Logistics, Great Eastern

This week, the highest gross spreads are HEC Pharma (58.1%), Alps Logistics (14.3%), Hollysys (12.9%), Ansarada (8.7%), Southern Cross (8.7%), QV...

Arun George

PC demand is slowing as Dell and HP report lacklustre numbers, Keisei Electric Rail sells more Oriental Land shares, and Nikon's meeting leaves...