Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The global backdrop for the start of the year is better than anticipated, with a broad-based upturn in PMIs suggesting steady or even growing global and emerging market growth.</li><li>The US is experiencing some slowing in growth, but consumer demand is more solid, supported by strong labor markets and falling inflation.</li><li>China's GDP growth is expected to remain around 5.5% in the near term, but there are concerns about ongoing deflation, housing market weakness, and its impact on corporate revenues and private sector confidence. Outside of China, emerging markets in Asia and Latin America are seeing growth rebound, driven by improvements in consumer and industrial sectors.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

The global backdrop for the start of the year is better than anticipated, with a broad-based upturn in PMIs suggesting steady or even growing global and emerging market growth.The US is experiencing some slowing in growth, but consumer demand is more solid, supported by strong labor markets and falling inflation.China's GDP growth is expected to remain around 5.5% in the near term, but there are concerns about ongoing deflation, housing market weakness, and its impact on corporate revenues and private sector confidence. Outside of China, emerging markets in Asia and Latin America are seeing growth rebound, driven by improvements in consumer and industrial sectors.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

EM Fixed Income: Emerging Markets Outlook & Strategy for February

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Takeaways:We maintain a bearish outlook on MXN, questioning the effectiveness of Banxico’s efforts in light of a bleak economic outlook.</li><li>We believe that market distress surrounding Egypt is exaggerated, and we speculate whether Saudi Arabia has silently committed to supporting higher crude oil pricesThe US is undergoing a pivotal moment as the Treasury exercises restraint, possibly signaling the end of US exceptionalism.</li><li>We anticipate reduced concerns about US bond yields impacting global growth, despite substantial issuance.</li></ul>

Takeaways:We maintain a bearish outlook on MXN, questioning the effectiveness of Banxico’s efforts in light of a bleak economic outlook.We believe that market distress surrounding Egypt is exaggerated, and we speculate whether Saudi Arabia has silently committed to supporting higher crude oil pricesThe US is undergoing a pivotal moment as the Treasury exercises restraint, possibly signaling the end of US exceptionalism.We anticipate reduced concerns about US bond yields impacting global growth, despite substantial issuance.

EM by EM 41: Fearing the Fury but Fading the Fear

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Happy Sunday folks and welcome to our flagship editorial!We have been banging the drum on the re-acceleration of goods inflation due to the Red Sea debacles for a while.</li><li>Our Geopolitical Team highlighted the shipping risks as the largest risk to markets already on Oct 31 and we have been all over this story since – sadly watching the ever accelerating worsening by the week.</li><li>The Suez has de facto been closed for containerships not sailing under Russian flag for a while, but the attacks over the weekend on the British tanker MV Merlin Luanda is potentially a sharp escalation of the situation as the tanker carried Russian oil.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday folks and welcome to our flagship editorial!We have been banging the drum on the re-acceleration of goods inflation due to the Red Sea debacles for a while.Our Geopolitical Team highlighted the shipping risks as the largest risk to markets already on Oct 31 and we have been all over this story since – sadly watching the ever accelerating worsening by the week.The Suez has de facto been closed for containerships not sailing under Russian flag for a while, but the attacks over the weekend on the British tanker MV Merlin Luanda is potentially a sharp escalation of the situation as the tanker carried Russian oil.

Steno Signals #84 – The Red Sea troubles are spreading FAST!

<ul>
<li>Increased freight rates could lead significant players in China to delay imports and turn to local demand, depleting existing stockpiles.</li>
<li>In the US, rising goods inflation might contribute to reversing the disinflation trade or, at the very least, establish a floor for yields.</li>
<li>These factors create a challenging scenario for emerging markets, as they face potential inflationary pressures and reduced exports.</li>
</ul>


Increased freight rates could lead significant players in China to delay imports and turn to local demand, depleting existing stockpiles.
In the US, rising goods inflation might contribute to reversing the disinflation trade or, at the very least, establish a floor for yields.
These factors create a challenging scenario for emerging markets, as they face potential inflationary pressures and reduced exports.


EM by EM #38: Inflation Returning with a Vengeance?

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Powell invited for a yuuuge risk asset party this week by allowing the market to continue to chase the narrative of material rate cuts in 2024.</li><li>This is (again) reminiscent of the 2006-2007 pause when the Fed allowed financial conditions to ease materially in the run-up to the recession.</li><li>During a hiking cycle, loads and loads of USDs are parked in cash-like setups due to a sudden better relative yield premium in almost risk-free structures.</li></ul>

Powell invited for a yuuuge risk asset party this week by allowing the market to continue to chase the narrative of material rate cuts in 2024.This is (again) reminiscent of the 2006-2007 pause when the Fed allowed financial conditions to ease materially in the run-up to the recession.During a hiking cycle, loads and loads of USDs are parked in cash-like setups due to a sudden better relative yield premium in almost risk-free structures.

Steno Signals #78 – Santa Powell Handing Out Gifts Even to the Naughty!

Brazil

The Brazilian real is the official currency of the Federative Republic of Brazil.  

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EM Fixed Income: Emerging Markets Outlook & Strategy for February

The global economy is performing better than expected at the start of the year, with strong growth in emerging markets and resilient growth in...

At Any Rate

EM by EM 41: Fearing the Fury but Fading the Fear

Takeaways:We maintain a bearish outlook on MXN, questioning the effectiveness of Banxico’s efforts in light of a bleak economic outlook. We...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #84 – The Red Sea troubles are spreading FAST!

Happy Sunday folks and welcome to our flagship editorial!We have been banging the drum on the re-acceleration of goods inflation due to the Red...

Steno Research

EM by EM #38: Inflation Returning with a Vengeance?

Increased freight rates could lead significant players in China to delay imports and turn to local demand, depleting existing stockpiles. In the...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #78 – Santa Powell Handing Out Gifts Even to the Naughty!

Powell invited for a yuuuge risk asset party this week by allowing the market to continue to chase the narrative of material rate cuts in 2024.

Steno Research

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