Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>The divergence between market-cap weighted and and non market-cap weighted indices is slowly normalizing, but the impact that NVIDIA (and some of the other big tech firms) has on both broad equity returns is notable with the 5 largest companies in the S&amp;P 500 accounting for roughly 30% of the index by now.</li><li>This does not only have implications for the distribution of returns between bigger indices (Nasdaq vs Dow Jones for instance), but also on indices option volatility, with the VIX ex NVIDIA hitting lows of around 9 in May (2017/2018 lows).</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.The divergence between market-cap weighted and and non market-cap weighted indices is slowly normalizing, but the impact that NVIDIA (and some of the other big tech firms) has on both broad equity returns is notable with the 5 largest companies in the S&amp;P 500 accounting for roughly 30% of the index by now.This does not only have implications for the distribution of returns between bigger indices (Nasdaq vs Dow Jones for instance), but also on indices option volatility, with the VIX ex NVIDIA hitting lows of around 9 in May (2017/2018 lows).

Positioning Watch – Turmoil in Markets Is Returning

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>I spent last week in Asia and even though I admittedly like to see my research as edgy and contrarian, I quickly realized that most PMs in the region agreed on my take on the imminent risk of a devaluation of the CNY.</li>
<li>USD/CNH call options are popular/consensus in the Asian Macro PM space, but interestingly there is no consensus around the contagion from a devaluation of the USDCNY.</li>
<li>The discussions I had pointed in all directions, meaning that a CNY devaluation holds the potential to turn into a macro earthquake, despite it already being a consensus position.</li>
</ul>


I spent last week in Asia and even though I admittedly like to see my research as edgy and contrarian, I quickly realized that most PMs in the region agreed on my take on the imminent risk of a devaluation of the CNY.
USD/CNH call options are popular/consensus in the Asian Macro PM space, but interestingly there is no consensus around the contagion from a devaluation of the USDCNY.
The discussions I had pointed in all directions, meaning that a CNY devaluation holds the potential to turn into a macro earthquake, despite it already being a consensus position.


Steno Signals #97 – 5 reasons why the CNY will be devalued next week and how to trade it

<ul><li>Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch! We have had a strong week in our portfolio with a USD-reflationary lean, but we are starting to contemplate how to deal with contagion from a continued rise in USD versus Asian FX pairs, especially if the increasing latent risk of a major devaluation of the CNY comes into fruition.</li><li>There is currently no respite for the Asian FX pairs as all major forward looking models point to a reacceleration of US inflation trends from the current plateau around 3.5% YoY.</li><li>We will look at the devaluation risks in detail tomorrow in our weekly “Steno Signals”, but will pinpoint value pockets in markets already today in our Portfolio Watch.</li></ul>

Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch! We have had a strong week in our portfolio with a USD-reflationary lean, but we are starting to contemplate how to deal with contagion from a continued rise in USD versus Asian FX pairs, especially if the increasing latent risk of a major devaluation of the CNY comes into fruition.There is currently no respite for the Asian FX pairs as all major forward looking models point to a reacceleration of US inflation trends from the current plateau around 3.5% YoY.We will look at the devaluation risks in detail tomorrow in our weekly “Steno Signals”, but will pinpoint value pockets in markets already today in our Portfolio Watch.

Portfolio Watch: No respite for Asian FX.. How to deal with it?

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

<ul><li>We see growth trending higher in the cyclical parts of the economy through April on our models and nowcasts, and Korean industries are well-positioned to capitalize on global cyclical tailwinds.</li><li>Especially as Chinese economic activity picks up pace.</li><li>The Caixin PMI suggests expansion, and given trade ties and scarcity of semis this should, all else equal, continue to boost Korean exports.</li></ul>

We see growth trending higher in the cyclical parts of the economy through April on our models and nowcasts, and Korean industries are well-positioned to capitalize on global cyclical tailwinds.Especially as Chinese economic activity picks up pace.The Caixin PMI suggests expansion, and given trade ties and scarcity of semis this should, all else equal, continue to boost Korean exports.

Emerging Markets: Legs to the Korea case or time to cash in?

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>The global backdrop for the start of the year is better than anticipated, with a broad-based upturn in PMIs suggesting steady or even growing global and emerging market growth.</li><li>The US is experiencing some slowing in growth, but consumer demand is more solid, supported by strong labor markets and falling inflation.</li><li>China's GDP growth is expected to remain around 5.5% in the near term, but there are concerns about ongoing deflation, housing market weakness, and its impact on corporate revenues and private sector confidence. Outside of China, emerging markets in Asia and Latin America are seeing growth rebound, driven by improvements in consumer and industrial sectors.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

The global backdrop for the start of the year is better than anticipated, with a broad-based upturn in PMIs suggesting steady or even growing global and emerging market growth.The US is experiencing some slowing in growth, but consumer demand is more solid, supported by strong labor markets and falling inflation.China's GDP growth is expected to remain around 5.5% in the near term, but there are concerns about ongoing deflation, housing market weakness, and its impact on corporate revenues and private sector confidence. Outside of China, emerging markets in Asia and Latin America are seeing growth rebound, driven by improvements in consumer and industrial sectors.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

EM Fixed Income: Emerging Markets Outlook & Strategy for February

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Positioning Watch – Turmoil in Markets Is Returning

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch. The divergence between market-cap weighted and and non market-cap weighted...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #97 – 5 reasons why the CNY will be devalued next week and how to trade it

Happy Sunday from a sunny Copenhagen. I spent last week in Asia and even though I admittedly like to see my research as edgy and contrarian, I...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: No respite for Asian FX.. How to deal with it?

Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch!We have had a strong week in our portfolio with a USD-reflationary lean, but we are starting to contemplate...

Steno Research

Emerging Markets: Legs to the Korea case or time to cash in?

We see growth trending higher in the cyclical parts of the economy through April on our models and nowcasts, and Korean industries are...

Steno Research

EM Fixed Income: Emerging Markets Outlook & Strategy for February

The global economy is performing better than expected at the start of the year, with strong growth in emerging markets and resilient growth in...

At Any Rate

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