European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 8 July (ahead of 19 July PUSU deadline), Carlsberg and Britvic PLC agreed a 1,315p/share offer, 5% above the prior one (I mentioned that an improved offer could come &gt;1,300p).</li>
<li>The offer represents a 12.6x EV/fwd EBITDA, above the 10-y 10.6x average, which seems reasonable, although interestingly, there are no irrevocable undertakings from any of the top shareholders.</li>
<li>The offer price is towards my bull case and Britvic's shareholders are capturing a good part of the synergies. Spread is 3.98%/5.93% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by 15 March). Long.</li>
</ul>


On 8 July (ahead of 19 July PUSU deadline), Carlsberg and Britvic PLC agreed a 1,315p/share offer, 5% above the prior one (I mentioned that an improved offer could come &gt;1,300p).
The offer represents a 12.6x EV/fwd EBITDA, above the 10-y 10.6x average, which seems reasonable, although interestingly, there are no irrevocable undertakings from any of the top shareholders.
The offer price is towards my bull case and Britvic's shareholders are capturing a good part of the synergies. Spread is 3.98%/5.93% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by 15 March). Long.


Carlsberg/Britvic: And The Third Proposal Arrived

<ul>
<li>On June 24, Carlsberg announced that Pepsico had agreed to waive a change of control clause in its bottling deals with Britvic. The current proposal is 1250p (+9.5p interim).</li>
<li>The offer represents an undemanding 12x EV/fwd NTM EBITDA. My standalone base case fair-value estimate is 1,056p/share. An improved offer could come &gt;1,300p, although 1,420p (13.3x wouldn't  be unreasonable).</li>
<li>Gross spread to the revised offer is 6.2% (6.9% including interim). Shares are pricing a 72% probability of deal success. I believe Carlsberg will come with an improved offer. Long.</li>
</ul>


On June 24, Carlsberg announced that Pepsico had agreed to waive a change of control clause in its bottling deals with Britvic. The current proposal is 1250p (+9.5p interim).
The offer represents an undemanding 12x EV/fwd NTM EBITDA. My standalone base case fair-value estimate is 1,056p/share. An improved offer could come &gt;1,300p, although 1,420p (13.3x wouldn't  be unreasonable).
Gross spread to the revised offer is 6.2% (6.9% including interim). Shares are pricing a 72% probability of deal success. I believe Carlsberg will come with an improved offer. Long.


Carlsberg/Britvic: Awaiting a Third Proposal

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The Toyota Group cross-holding ecosystem is in flux. They started with a small announcement by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aisin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11809:1" rel="noopener">Aisin (7259 JP)</a> but moves have come fast and furious.</li>
<li>Apparently minorities are grumbling to the SFC about the low-balled Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asia-cement-china-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3374:1" rel="noopener">Asia Cement China (743 HK)</a>. And for good reason. The best course of action? Vote against the Scheme.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10619:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS)</a> is trading at a steep NAV discount. And the controlling family is making  a partial Offer to gain majority control. </li>
</ul>


The Toyota Group cross-holding ecosystem is in flux. They started with a small announcement by Aisin (7259 JP) but moves have come fast and furious.
Apparently minorities are grumbling to the SFC about the low-balled Offer for Asia Cement China (743 HK). And for good reason. The best course of action? Vote against the Scheme.

Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS) is trading at a steep NAV discount. And the controlling family is making  a partial Offer to gain majority control. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota, Asia Cement, Hanwha Corp, Kokusai Electric, Keisei Electric

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>No surprise: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway (9009 JP)</a> shareholders voted down Palliser's proposal. If the vote was close, Palliser may ups its rhetorical game, and takes a harder stance.</li>
<li>Argyle failed to boot one <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-china-direct-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6862:1" rel="noopener">CMCDI (133 HK)</a> director. They'll next target the management agreement renewal; and agitate the company buy back 20% of shares outstanding at 90% of NAV.</li>
<li>The Offeror now has 90.16% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a> - so this will get suspended at the close of the Offer.</li>
</ul>


No surprise: Keisei Electric Railway (9009 JP) shareholders voted down Palliser's proposal. If the vote was close, Palliser may ups its rhetorical game, and takes a harder stance.
Argyle failed to boot one CMCDI (133 HK) director. They'll next target the management agreement renewal; and agitate the company buy back 20% of shares outstanding at 90% of NAV.
The Offeror now has 90.16% in Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) - so this will get suspended at the close of the Offer.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, China Merchants, Great Eastern, Jardine Matheson/JCNC

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (19 HK)</a> has announced it is selling its US Coca-Cola ops to its parent for HK$30.4bn (US$3.9bn). That's 40% of its market cap.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Swire are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Swire Pacific (19 HK) has announced it is selling its US Coca-Cola ops to its parent for HK$30.4bn (US$3.9bn). That's 40% of its market cap.
Preceding my comments on Swire are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Swire Sells US Coke Ops To Parent

United Kingdom

Fevertree Drinks PLC is a beverage company. The Company produces soft drinks and mixers.

A.G. Barr p.l.c. manufactures and sells soft drinks.  The Company produces Orangina, Irn-Bru, Tizer, St. Clements, D & B, Srike Cola, Barr, and other brands at its facilities located throughout the United Kingdom.  A.G. Barr sells its products nationally.

Nichols plc is a soft drink and catering company. The Company's operations encompass the production and distribution of soft drinks and hot beverage systems, filling and supplying vending machines, providing contract packing services within the food industry, and a full range of catering services. Nichols sells its products in the UK, the Arabian peninsula, Africa and Russia.

Cranswick plc manufactures and supplies food products to grocery retailers in the United Kingdom and the food service sector.  The Company supplies fresh pork, gourmet sausages, charcuterie, cooked meats, sandwiches, and dry cured bacon.

Tate & Lyle PLC is the holding company for an international group of companies which produces and markets ingredients and solutions for the food, beverage, industrials and agriculture industries around the world. The Company's range of products includes nutritive sweeteners, industrial starches, ethanol, acidulants and animal feed.

Premier Foods PLC manufactures a range of branded and proprietary products across many food categories.  The Company sells to retailers, food service operators, plant bakeries, and food processors in the United Kingdom and worldwide.

Hilton Food Group PLC. processes, packs, and distributes meat products to international food retailers.

Hotel Chocolat Group Plc manufactures, distributes, and retails premium chocolate and cocoa-related products under the Hotel Chocolat and ChocExpress brands in the United Kingdom, Europe, and the United States. It offers cocoa and chocolate-related items, and gifts, including drinking chocolate, biscuits, wines and spirits, cookery books, baking products, and beauty products containing cocoa butter. The company sells its products through a network of 84 shops, including 5 shop + caf� formats, 2 flagship sites, and 3 sites in Copenhagen, as well as through Chocolate Tasting Clubs and online. It also issues chocolate bonds; holds properties; operates restaurants; and sells corporate gifts in the business to business market. In addition, the company operates Boucan, a luxury boutique hotel that comprises 14 guest rooms, a spa, and a restaurant. The company was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Royston, United Kingdom.

M.P. Evans Group PLC, through its subsidiaries, operates oil palm and rubber plantations in Indonesia. The company produces crude palm oil and palm kernels. It is also involved in beef-cattle farming in Australia and the United Kingdom; property development and oil-palm fresh fruit bunches production businesses in Malaysia; and the provision of management and agronomic consultancy services. As of December 31, 2015, the company had interests in 25,400 hectares of oil-palm plantations in Indonesia; 7,400 hectares of associated smallholder co-operative schemes; 20,000 hectares oil-palm concession in South Sumatra; 70 hectares of plantation land in Peninsula Malaysia; and 8,100 hectares of oil-palm and rubber plantations in Sumatra, Indonesia. M. P. Evans Group PLC was incorporated in 1981 and is based in Tunbridge Wells, the United Kingdom.

Devro PLC produces manufactured casings for the food industry.  The Company produces collagen-based products for manufacturers of sausages, salami, hams, and other cooked meats.

Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co., Ltd. operates in the brewery industry.  The Company's products include beer, spring water, beer raw materials, feeds, yeast, and other related products.

Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co, Ltd. (000729 CH)

Chongqing Brewery Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets beer products.  The Company also produces medical preparations and capsules.

The Boston Beer Company, Inc. produces a variety of craft-brewed beers and cider products at various contract breweries and Company-owned breweries.  The Company sells its products under brand names such as Boston Beer Company, Oregon Beer and Brewing Company, Samuel Adams, and HardCore.  Boston Beer sells its products to a network of wholesale distributors.

Sapporo Holdings Ltd produces and sells alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages.  The Company's products include beer, wine, brandy, whiskey, imported beer, soft drinks, juice, coffee, and tea.  SAPPORO HOLDINGS also operates real estate businesses.

National Beverage Corp. is a holding company for subsidiaries that market, manufacture, and distribute a full line of beverage products.  The Company's products include multi-flavored and cola soft drinks, juice and juice products, flavored carbonated and spring water products, and specialty items.

Remy Cointreau SA manufactures and distributes premium wines and spirits worldwide.  The Company produces Remy Martin cognac, Cointreau, Passoa, Mount Gay rum, Metaxa. Through its wholly-owned sales company, Remy sells throughout the world.

Royal Unibrew A/S  produces beer, ale, and soft drinks. The Company produces beer, soft drinks, orange juice, and mineral water. Unibrew distributes its products throughout Europe.

Saigon Beer - Alcohol - Beverage Corporation produces and distributes alcoholic beverages. The Company offers beer, spirits, soda, and other products. Saigon Beer - Alcohol - Beverage serves clients in Vietnam.

Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii AS is the holding company of the Efes Beverage Group. The group produces and markets beer, malt and Coca-Cola products across a geography that consists of Turkey, Russia, the CIS, countries Southeast Europe and the Middle East. Anadolu Efes is also an operating entity under which the Turkish brewing business is managed.

Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co., Ltd. produces wine. The Company also manufactures, produces and sells liquor and glassware. Anhui Kouzi Distillery operates in China.

Britvic Plc supplies a wide range of soft drinks. The Company manufactures and markets its own brand of soft drinks as well as supplies drinks manufactured by other companies.

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Britvic PLC (BVIC LN)

Carlsberg/Britvic: And The Third Proposal Arrived

Carlsberg and Britvic PLC agree on 1,315p/share offer ahead of PUSU deadline, representing a 5% increase and capturing synergies for shareholders....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Carlsberg/Britvic: Awaiting a Third Proposal

On June 24, Carlsberg announced that Pepsico had agreed to waive a change of control clause in its bottling deals with Britvic. The current...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota, Asia Cement, Hanwha Corp, Kokusai Electric, Keisei Electric

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, China Merchants, Great Eastern, Jardine Matheson/JCNC

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Swire Sells US Coke Ops To Parent

If the discount to NAV was warranted before this latest news, then Swire is a clear buy - there is no justification for assigning a similar...

David Blennerhassett

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Carlsberg/Britvic: And The Third Proposal Arrived

​Carlsberg and Britvic PLC agree on 1,315p/share offer ahead of PUSU deadline, representing a 5% increase and capturing synergies for shareholders....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Carlsberg/Britvic: Awaiting a Third Proposal

On June 24, Carlsberg announced that Pepsico had agreed to waive a change of control clause in its bottling deals with Britvic. The current...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota, Asia Cement, Hanwha Corp, Kokusai Electric, Keisei Electric

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, China Merchants, Great Eastern, Jardine Matheson/JCNC

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Swire Sells US Coke Ops To Parent

If the discount to NAV was warranted before this latest news, then Swire is a clear buy - there is no justification for assigning a similar...

David Blennerhassett

Carlsberg and Britvic PLC agree on 1,315p/share offer ahead of PUSU deadline, representing a 5% increase and capturing synergies for shareholders....