European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Carlsberg/Britvic: And The Third Proposal Arrived

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On June 24, Carlsberg announced that Pepsico had agreed to waive a change of control clause in its bottling deals with Britvic. The current proposal is 1250p (+9.5p interim).</li>
<li>The offer represents an undemanding 12x EV/fwd NTM EBITDA. My standalone base case fair-value estimate is 1,056p/share. An improved offer could come &gt;1,300p, although 1,420p (13.3x wouldn't  be unreasonable).</li>
<li>Gross spread to the revised offer is 6.2% (6.9% including interim). Shares are pricing a 72% probability of deal success. I believe Carlsberg will come with an improved offer. Long.</li>
</ul>


On June 24, Carlsberg announced that Pepsico had agreed to waive a change of control clause in its bottling deals with Britvic. The current proposal is 1250p (+9.5p interim).
The offer represents an undemanding 12x EV/fwd NTM EBITDA. My standalone base case fair-value estimate is 1,056p/share. An improved offer could come &gt;1,300p, although 1,420p (13.3x wouldn't  be unreasonable).
Gross spread to the revised offer is 6.2% (6.9% including interim). Shares are pricing a 72% probability of deal success. I believe Carlsberg will come with an improved offer. Long.


Carlsberg/Britvic: Awaiting a Third Proposal

Britvic PLC

Carlsberg/Britvic: Awaiting a Third Proposal