Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We currently do not see any index changes for ASX 20 and ASX 100.</li>
<li>We continue to expect one change for ASX 50. However, our expectations for ASX 200 have changed since our last insight (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-leaderboard-asx-dec-24-three-changes-possible-new-long-short-ideas?slug=quiddity-leaderboard-asx-dec-24-three-changes-possible-new-long-short-ideas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">link</a>).</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2024 index rebal event.
We currently do not see any index changes for ASX 20 and ASX 100.
We continue to expect one change for ASX 50. However, our expectations for ASX 200 have changed since our last insight (link).


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 24: Clarity Pharma and Resolute Mining Competing for ASX 200 Spot

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>With three quarters of the review period complete, there could be one change for the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index and two changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> in December. </li>
<li>There are two stocks that could be deleted from global indexes in November and that could keep those names under pressure for the next few weeks.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy between 4-5x ADV in the forecast adds and sell between 2-8x ADV in the forecast deletes. Shorts have been building up in some names.</li>
</ul>


With three quarters of the review period complete, there could be one change for the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index and two changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in December. 
There are two stocks that could be deleted from global indexes in November and that could keep those names under pressure for the next few weeks.
Passive trackers will need to buy between 4-5x ADV in the forecast adds and sell between 2-8x ADV in the forecast deletes. Shorts have been building up in some names.


S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 2024): Big Impact as Shorts Ramp Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We currently do not see any index changes for ASX 20 and ASX 100.</li>
<li>We see one change for ASX 100 and two changes for ASX 200 but the final result could depend on relative share price movements for the next two months.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2024 index rebal event.
We currently do not see any index changes for ASX 20 and ASX 100.
We see one change for ASX 100 and two changes for ASX 200 but the final result could depend on relative share price movements for the next two months.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 24: Three Changes Possible; New Long-Short Ideas

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pro-medicus-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13516:1" rel="noopener">Pro Medicus Ltd (PME AU)</a> will be added to the MV Australia Equal Weight Index while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/igo-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:462:1" rel="noopener">IGO Ltd (IGO AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nib-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7063:1" rel="noopener">nib holdings (NHF AU)</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in a one-way turnover of 6.9% leading to a round-trip trade of A$330m.</li>
<li>Shorts are pretty big in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pro-medicus-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13516:1" rel="noopener">Pro Medicus Ltd (PME AU)</a> while there has been a recent spike in short interest for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/igo-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:462:1" rel="noopener">IGO Ltd (IGO AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Pro Medicus Ltd (PME AU) will be added to the MV Australia Equal Weight Index while IGO Ltd (IGO AU) and nib holdings (NHF AU) will be deleted.
Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in a one-way turnover of 6.9% leading to a round-trip trade of A$330m.
Shorts are pretty big in Pro Medicus Ltd (PME AU) while there has been a recent spike in short interest for IGO Ltd (IGO AU). 


MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes, Capping to Drive Flow

<ul>
<li>With 2 days left to review cutoff, there could be 1 inclusion and 3 deletions for the index at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 4.4% and a round-trip trade of A$212m.</li>
<li>The final list of inclusions/exclusions will depend on price movements till Friday and whether the index provider makes any significant changes to the free float of stocks in the universe.</li>
</ul>


With 2 days left to review cutoff, there could be 1 inclusion and 3 deletions for the index at the September rebalance.
Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 4.4% and a round-trip trade of A$212m.
The final list of inclusions/exclusions will depend on price movements till Friday and whether the index provider makes any significant changes to the free float of stocks in the universe.


MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: One Add & A Few Deletes

Australia

Brambles Limited is a global support services group which provides pallet and plastic container pooling services and information management services.

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Brambles Ltd (BXB AU)

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 24: Clarity Pharma and Resolute Mining Competing for ASX 200 Spot

Spark New Zealand (SPK AU) is a high-conviction ASX 200 DEL. Clarity Pharma (CU6 AU) is leading the race to become an ASX 200 add and Resolute...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 2024): Big Impact as Shorts Ramp Up

There could be 1 change for the ASX50 and 2 changes for the ASX200 in Dec. Couple of ASX deletes could also be deleted from a global index in...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 24: Three Changes Possible; New Long-Short Ideas

There could be 5x-9x ADV to trade for the expected ADDs and DELs for ASX 200 in December 2024. We currently estimate one-way flow for the ASX 200...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes, Capping to Drive Flow

PME is an add. NHF and IGO are deletes. Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in a one-way turnover of 6.9% leading to a...

Brian Freitas

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: One Add & A Few Deletes

There could be 1 add and 3 deletes in Sep. Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 4.4% and a...

Brian Freitas

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