Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Crude oil prices crater as OPEC meeting outcome fails to support oil prices. Despite OPEC+ extending larger cuts until end-2025, prices fell on fears of excess supply.</li>
<li>Henry Hub Gas prices rose sharply last week driven by expectations of a hotter-than-expected summer in the US &amp; Outages in Norway.</li>
<li>Energy majors fell sharply on 3/June and ended the week in the red. BP and Exxon Mobile were downgraded. Berkshire ramped up holdings in Occidental.</li>
</ul>


Crude oil prices crater as OPEC meeting outcome fails to support oil prices. Despite OPEC+ extending larger cuts until end-2025, prices fell on fears of excess supply.
Henry Hub Gas prices rose sharply last week driven by expectations of a hotter-than-expected summer in the US &amp; Outages in Norway.
Energy majors fell sharply on 3/June and ended the week in the red. BP and Exxon Mobile were downgraded. Berkshire ramped up holdings in Occidental.


[ETP 23/2024] Jittery Crude And Fiery Natural Gas Markets Defined Energy Markets Last Week

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business, Auctus Advisors

Auctus Advisors

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business

Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector. The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy. Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors. Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>GeoPark (GPRK US)C; target price of US$26 per share: More favourable offtake contract in Colombia – GeoPark has signe da new offtake contract with Vitol for a minimum of 20 mbbl/d.</li>
<li>The agreement improves GeoPark’s price realizations by US$0.15/bbl vs the current agreement.</li>
<li>As part of this transaction, GeoPark will obtain immediate access to committed funding from Vitol for up to US$300 mm, with an option to increase by another US$200 mm for a total of US$500 mm, in prepaid future oil sales over the period of the offtake contract.</li>
</ul>


GeoPark (GPRK US)C; target price of US$26 per share: More favourable offtake contract in Colombia – GeoPark has signe da new offtake contract with Vitol for a minimum of 20 mbbl/d.
The agreement improves GeoPark’s price realizations by US$0.15/bbl vs the current agreement.
As part of this transaction, GeoPark will obtain immediate access to committed funding from Vitol for up to US$300 mm, with an option to increase by another US$200 mm for a total of US$500 mm, in prepaid future oil sales over the period of the offtake contract.


APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tuhu-car-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36012:1" rel="noopener">Tuhu Car (9690 HK)</a> was listed in Hong Kong on 26th Sept 2023 after raising US$151m. The IPO had been a 100% primary offering.</li>
<li>Tuhu is an integrated online and offline platform for automotive services in China.</li>
<li>Trading with a very small float of 1.8%, in its upcoming six-month lockup expiry, &gt;90% of Tuhu’s pre-IPO investors, cornerstones and management combined stakes will come off six-month lockup expiry.</li>
</ul>



Tuhu Car (9690 HK) was listed in Hong Kong on 26th Sept 2023 after raising US$151m. The IPO had been a 100% primary offering.
Tuhu is an integrated online and offline platform for automotive services in China.
Trading with a very small float of 1.8%, in its upcoming six-month lockup expiry, &gt;90% of Tuhu’s pre-IPO investors, cornerstones and management combined stakes will come off six-month lockup expiry.


Tuhu Car Lock-Up Expiry - Would Need Some Selling to Improve Liquidity when US$1.5bn Comes Unlocked

<ul>
<li>Chariot (CHAR LN)C; target price of £0.50 per share: Receiving EIA approval for onshore drilling in Morocco – Chariot has received approval for its EIA for a total of 20 well at Loukos, onshore Morocco.</li>
<li>The approval covers the initial drilling campaign of two exploration wells (Gaufrette and Dartois) as well as 17 further well locations and the re-entry of an existing gas discovery.</li>
<li>Operations are expected to start at the end of 1Q24 as indicated previously.</li>
</ul>


Chariot (CHAR LN)C; target price of £0.50 per share: Receiving EIA approval for onshore drilling in Morocco – Chariot has received approval for its EIA for a total of 20 well at Loukos, onshore Morocco.
The approval covers the initial drilling campaign of two exploration wells (Gaufrette and Dartois) as well as 17 further well locations and the re-entry of an existing gas discovery.
Operations are expected to start at the end of 1Q24 as indicated previously.


Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.65 per share: Drilling rig on location of high impact well by the end of January – A rig is expected to be mobilised to the high impact Welchau-1 drilling location during the last week of January.</li>
<li>The total vertical depth of the well is only 1,800 m with a dry hole cost estimated at ~EUR5.1 mm.</li>
<li>BW Energy (BWE NO): BW Offshore sells interests in BW Energy to BW Group – BW Offshore will sell 58,111,461 (22.52%) shares in BW Energy to BW Group at a price of NOK32 per share, resulting in total proceeds ~US$176 mm.</li>
</ul>


ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.65 per share: Drilling rig on location of high impact well by the end of January – A rig is expected to be mobilised to the high impact Welchau-1 drilling location during the last week of January.
The total vertical depth of the well is only 1,800 m with a dry hole cost estimated at ~EUR5.1 mm.
BW Energy (BWE NO): BW Offshore sells interests in BW Energy to BW Group – BW Offshore will sell 58,111,461 (22.52%) shares in BW Energy to BW Group at a price of NOK32 per share, resulting in total proceeds ~US$176 mm.


United Kingdom

BP P.L.C is an energy company. The Company explores and produces oil and natural gas, refines, markets, and supplies petroleum products, as well as generates solar energy, and manufactures and markets chemicals such as terephthalic acid, acetic acid, acrylonitrile, ethylene, and polyethylene. BP serves customers worldwide.

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BP (BP US)

[ETP 23/2024] Jittery Crude And Fiery Natural Gas Markets Defined Energy Markets Last Week

OPEC+ meeting outcomes failed to support oil prices. Hotter-than-expected US summer and outages in Norway sent gas prices soaring. BP & Exxon...

Mint Finance

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 10/05/2024

GeoPark (GPRK US)C; target price of US$26 per share: More favourable offtake contract in Colombia – GeoPark has signe da new offtake contract with...

Auctus Advisors

Tuhu Car Lock-Up Expiry - Would Need Some Selling to Improve Liquidity when US$1.5bn Comes Unlocked

Tuhu Car (9690 HK) was listed in Hong Kong on 26th Sept 2023 after raising US$151m. The IPO had been a 100% primary offering.

Clarence Chu

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 09/02/2024

The approval covers the initial drilling campaign of two exploration wells (Gaufrette and Dartois) as well as 17 further well locations and the re...

Auctus Advisors

Auctus on Friday - 26/01/2024

ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.65 per share: Drilling rig on location of high impact well by the end of January

Auctus Advisors

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