Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>On 3/21/23 we discussed the potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on the SPX, or the 4165-4200 range, which would set up an opportunity to get defensive.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 has gained 4.5% since, but has reversed topside the downtrend, putting a test of 4165-4200 in play.</li>
<li>We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023 -- with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible -- but considering limited upside, we recommend shifting toward defensives.</li>
</ul>


On 3/21/23 we discussed the potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on the SPX, or the 4165-4200 range, which would set up an opportunity to get defensive.
The S&amp;P 500 has gained 4.5% since, but has reversed topside the downtrend, putting a test of 4165-4200 in play.
We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023 -- with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible -- but considering limited upside, we recommend shifting toward defensives.


$SPX 4165-4200 in Play; WTI Crude Testing $82 Resistance; Buys in Gold Miners, Waste Services

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pertamina-geothermal-energy-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36725:1" rel="noopener">Pertamina Geothermal (0125738D IJ)</a> guides to the low end of the IDR875-880 price range and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hesai-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36743:1" rel="noopener">Hesai Group (HSAI US)</a> has a good debut.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ihara-science-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9870:1" rel="noopener">Ihara Science (5999 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boustead-projects-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26785:1" rel="noopener">Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sabana-industrial-real-estate-investment-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:911:1" rel="noopener">Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - Pertamina Geothermal (0125738D IJ) guides to the low end of the IDR875-880 price range and Hesai Group (HSAI US) has a good debut.
Event-Driven developments - Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Ihara Science (5999 JP), Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP), Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP). 


Weekly Deals Digest (12 Feb) - Pertamina Geothermal, Toshiba, Newcrest, Nitro, Boustead, Sabana

Acotec Scientific Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-ruipeng-pet-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36735:1" rel="noopener">New Ruipeng Pet Group (RPET US)</a> and Hesai Group file for US$100 million IPOs for listing in the US.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acotec-scientific-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32176:1" rel="noopener">Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xingda-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17836:1" rel="noopener">Xingda International (1899 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kanematsu-electronics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15767:1" rel="noopener">Kanematsu Electronics (8096 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - New Ruipeng Pet Group (RPET US) and Hesai Group file for US$100 million IPOs for listing in the US.
Event-Driven developments - Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669 HK), Xingda International (1899 HK), Kanematsu Electronics (8096 JP), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Origin Energy (ORG AU). 


Weekly Deals Digest (29 Jan) - AAG Energy, Acotec, Xingda, Origin Energy, Tyro, Kanematsu, Toyo

<ul>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acotec-scientific-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32176:1" rel="noopener">Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669 HK)</a>’s partial offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boston-scientific-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11115:1" rel="noopener">Boston Scientific (BSX US)</a> at HK$20 per share is now unconditional. The final closing date is 9 February.</li>
<li>The current acceptances representing 78.59% of outstanding shares imply current proration is 82.71%. Current pro-ration suggests CA Medtech post-offer shares will be counted towards the public float.</li>
<li>Based on the current proration of 82.71% and at the last close price of HK$19.78 per share, the breakeven price is HK$19.00 per share. </li>
</ul>


As expected, Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669 HK)’s partial offer from Boston Scientific (BSX US) at HK$20 per share is now unconditional. The final closing date is 9 February.
The current acceptances representing 78.59% of outstanding shares imply current proration is 82.71%. Current pro-ration suggests CA Medtech post-offer shares will be counted towards the public float.
Based on the current proration of 82.71% and at the last close price of HK$19.78 per share, the breakeven price is HK$19.00 per share. 


Acotec (6669 HK): Boston Scientific’s HK$20 Partial Offer Unconditional

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acotec-scientific-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32176:1" rel="noopener">Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669 HK)</a>’s partial offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boston-scientific-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11115:1" rel="noopener">Boston Scientific (BSX US)</a> at HK$20 per share is now open. The IFA opines it to be fair and reasonable.</li>
<li>The partial offer is conditional on the offeror hitting 50.01% voting rights. Irrevocables ensure that it will be declared unconditional on or before the first closing date (26 January).</li>
<li>Based on a minimum proration of 71.31% and at the current share price of HK$17.20 per share, the estimated breakeven price is HK$10.38 per share.</li>
</ul>



Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669 HK)’s partial offer from Boston Scientific (BSX US) at HK$20 per share is now open. The IFA opines it to be fair and reasonable.
The partial offer is conditional on the offeror hitting 50.01% voting rights. Irrevocables ensure that it will be declared unconditional on or before the first closing date (26 January).
Based on a minimum proration of 71.31% and at the current share price of HK$17.20 per share, the estimated breakeven price is HK$10.38 per share.


Acotec (6669 HK): Boston Scientific’s HK$20 Partial Offer Now Open

United States

Boston Scientific Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets minimally invasive medical devices. The Company's products are used in interventional cardiology, cardiac rhythm management, peripheral interventions, electrophysiology, neurovascular intervention, endoscopy, urology, gynecology and neuromodulation.

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Boston Scientific (BSX US)

$SPX 4165-4200 in Play; WTI Crude Testing $82 Resistance; Buys in Gold Miners, Waste Services

The $SPX reversed topside the 2-month downtrend, putting a test of 4165-4200 in play. We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023;...

Vermilion Research

Weekly Deals Digest (12 Feb) - Pertamina Geothermal, Toshiba, Newcrest, Nitro, Boustead, Sabana

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Newcrest, Nitro, Warrego, Ihara, Iwasaki Electric, Toshiba, Toyo, Boustead Projects,...

Arun George

Weekly Deals Digest (29 Jan) - AAG Energy, Acotec, Xingda, Origin Energy, Tyro, Kanematsu, Toyo

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (AAG Energy, Acotec, Xingda, Kanematsu Electronics, Toyo Construction, Norwest, Origin...

Arun George

Acotec (6669 HK): Boston Scientific’s HK$20 Partial Offer Unconditional

Based on the current proration of 82.71% and at the last close price of HK$19.78 per share, the breakeven price is HK$19.00 per share.

Arun George

Acotec (6669 HK): Boston Scientific’s HK$20 Partial Offer Now Open

Irrevocables ensure that it will be declared unconditional on or before the first closing date. Based on a minimum proration of 71.31% and at the...

Arun George

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