Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>Overview: Will Strong Revenue Growth Ever Lift CTRP Margins?</h2><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/180" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1">Ctrip.com International (ADR) (CTRP US)</a> has expanded dramatically over the last few years through a combination of solid organic growth and, more recently, the 2015 acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7357" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7357:1">Qunar Cayman Islands Ltd (QUNR US)</a>. Street analysts and many investors appear to share the belief that as CTRP increases its revenue base, it is moving inexorably toward a period of significantly higher margins and returns. We strongly disagree with this view.…

Overview: Will Strong Revenue Growth Ever Lift CTRP Margins?Ctrip.com International (ADR) (CTRP US) has expanded dramatically over the last few years through a combination of solid organic growth and, more recently, the 2015 acquisition of Qunar Cayman Islands Ltd (QUNR US). Street analysts and many investors appear to share the belief that as CTRP increases its revenue base, it is moving inexorably toward a period of significantly higher margins and returns. We strongly disagree with this view.…

Is Ctrip.com Another Priceline? Or Another Expedia? Or Neither? We'll Find Out Sooner Than You Think

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

·  A year ago, the key issue to understand was that commodity markets were about to tighten and position accordingly – energy and materials have been the best performing MSCI sectors.·  The global economy is starting the year on a strong cyclical footing, with EM factory PMIs accelerating ex India and Brazil, while both Europe and the US have seen momentum build further.·  A key risk is the fallout from an attempt by the new US administration to close the merchandise trade deficit which has…

·  A year ago, the key issue to understand was that commodity markets were about to tighten and position accordingly – energy and materials have been the best performing MSCI sectors.·  The global economy is starting the year on a strong cyclical footing, with EM factory PMIs accelerating ex India and Brazil, while both Europe and the US have seen momentum build further.·  A key risk is the fallout from an attempt by the new US administration to close the merchandise trade deficit which has…

US Policy Focus Shifts to Closing Trade Deficit…

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

In this report, we use intermarket analysis to analyze XLY (Consumer Discretionary SPDR ETF) vs. XLP (Consumer Staples Select Sect. SPDR ETF). The use of intermarket analysis is a practical method of assessing the future inflection points in the economy and the stock market.  Intermarket analysis is intuitive and logical. For example, we take two widely followed consumer ETFs, including XLY (discretionary) and XLP (staples). We use the US ETFs since they are the most liquid and have the deepest…

In this report, we use intermarket analysis to analyze XLY (Consumer Discretionary SPDR ETF) vs. XLP (Consumer Staples Select Sect. SPDR ETF). The use of intermarket analysis is a practical method of assessing the future inflection points in the economy and the stock market.  Intermarket analysis is intuitive and logical. For example, we take two widely followed consumer ETFs, including XLY (discretionary) and XLP (staples). We use the US ETFs since they are the most liquid and have the deepest…

CHINA - Healthcare, Steel, Autos, Education, Research From Beijing

Scott Laprise/ 乐天虎

CHINA - Healthcare, Steel, Autos, Education

<ul>
<li>GM and Shanghai Auto fined Rmb201mn for fixing prices on certain car models.</li>
<li>The fine was set at 4% of the models in question, the law allows for a 1-10% penalty.</li>
<li>The fine is small at 1.3% of profits and levied by the Shanghai government.</li>
<li>Shanghai Auto (SAIC) is the JV partner for GM in China.</li>
<li>This probe began in 2014 though investigations began in 2011 upon receiving auto dealer complaints.</li>
<li>Price fixing is a practice common by foreign automakers in China.</li>
<li>
Audi and Chrysler were fined for price fixing…</li>
</ul>


GM and Shanghai Auto fined Rmb201mn for fixing prices on certain car models.
The fine was set at 4% of the models in question, the law allows for a 1-10% penalty.
The fine is small at 1.3% of profits and levied by the Shanghai government.
Shanghai Auto (SAIC) is the JV partner for GM in China.
This probe began in 2014 though investigations began in 2011 upon receiving auto dealer complaints.
Price fixing is a practice common by foreign automakers in China.

Audi and Chrysler were fined for price fixing…


Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
Up-to-date investment decision advice (buy, hold, sell)
Monthly regional and global conference calls
Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

<ul>
<li>
Russia: Trump presidency, likely lifting of western sanctions and a stabilizing economy boost prospects for Russia.</li>
<li>
Mexico: Fitch downgrades outlook to ‘negative; on concerns about growth and challenges to public finances.</li>
<li>
China: CPI of 2.3% was higher than expected but still below 3% target.</li>
</ul>The US Fed outlook for three rate hikes in 2017 is based on flawed assumptions.  They are expecting that the US economy in 2017 is similar to the back half of 2016.  We believe this is a flawed assumption as…



Russia: Trump presidency, likely lifting of western sanctions and a stabilizing economy boost prospects for Russia.

Mexico: Fitch downgrades outlook to ‘negative; on concerns about growth and challenges to public finances.

China: CPI of 2.3% was higher than expected but still below 3% target.
The US Fed outlook for three rate hikes in 2017 is based on flawed assumptions.  They are expecting that the US economy in 2017 is similar to the back half of 2016.  We believe this is a flawed assumption as…

US Fed 2017 Rate Hike Outlook Based on Flawed Assumptions

United States

Booking Holdings Inc. operates as an online travel company. The Company offers a platform that allows to make travel reservations with providers of travel services, as well as provides accommodation reservations, rentals cars, airline tickets, and vacation packages. Booking Holdings serves customers worldwide.

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Booking Holdings (BKNG US)

Is Ctrip.com Another Priceline? Or Another Expedia? Or Neither? We'll Find Out Sooner Than You Think

Overview: Will Strong Revenue Growth Ever Lift CTRP Margins?Ctrip.com International (ADR) (CTRP US) has expanded dramatically over the last few...

Daniel Hellberg

US Policy Focus Shifts to Closing Trade Deficit…

· A year ago, the key issue to understand was that commodity markets were about to tighten and position accordingly – energy and materials have...

Sean Maher

Intermarket Analysis (1): XLY Versus XLP

In this report, we use intermarket analysis to analyze XLY (Consumer Discretionary SPDR ETF) vs. XLP (Consumer Staples Select Sect. SPDR ETF). The...

Douglas Kim

GM Fined for Price Fixing in China

GM and Shanghai Auto fined Rmb201mn for fixing prices on certain car models. The fine was set at 4% of the models in question, the law allows for...

Scott Laprise/ 乐天虎

US Fed 2017 Rate Hike Outlook Based on Flawed Assumptions

Russia: Trump presidency, likely lifting of western sanctions and a stabilizing economy boost prospects for Russia. Mexico: Fitch downgrades...

David Riedel

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