Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

The Korea Exchange (KRX) will announce the results of the June 2021 review of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> in May with the changes becoming effective after the close of trading on 10 June.We currently see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taihan-electric-wire-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11551:1" rel="noopener">Taihan Electric Wire (001440 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongwon-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1783:1" rel="noopener">Dongwon Industries (006040 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyosung-advanced-materials-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27751:1" rel="noopener">Hyosung Advanced Materials C (298050 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyosung-tnc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27749:1" rel="noopener">Hyosung TNC Co Ltd (298020 KS)</a> as potential inclusions in the index, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taeyoung-engineering-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18740:1" rel="noopener">Taeyoung Engineering &amp; Construction (009410 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/namsun-aluminum-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17514:1" rel="noopener">Namsun Aluminum (008350 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanil-hyundai-cement-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14406:1" rel="noopener">Hanil Hyundai Cement (006390 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/binggrae-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16424:1" rel="noopener">Binggrae Co Ltd (005180 KS)</a> as the corresponding exclusions.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-bioscience-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31484:1" rel="noopener">SK Bioscience (302440 KS)</a> is expected to list on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22911:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)</a> market in March and there is a possibility that the stock gets Fast Entry into the index. That could see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sebang-global-battery-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9618:1" rel="noopener">Sebang Global Battery (004490 KS)</a> being deleted from the index.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krafton-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28956:1" rel="noopener"> Krafton Inc (1486402D KS)</a> is another possible Fast Entry into the index though there are few details available on when the stock is expected to list.The short sell ban in Korea has been extended to 2 May. Stocks that are constituents of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a> can be short sold from 3 May. The commencement of short selling on these stocks prior to the announcement of the June review changes could result in the expected inclusions outperforming the expected exclusions and opening up other interesting trading strategies.

The Korea Exchange (KRX) will announce the results of the June 2021 review of the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) in May with the changes becoming effective after the close of trading on 10 June.We currently see Taihan Electric Wire (001440 KS), Dongwon Industries (006040 KS), Hyosung Advanced Materials C (298050 KS) and Hyosung TNC Co Ltd (298020 KS) as potential inclusions in the index, with Taeyoung Engineering &amp; Construction (009410 KS), Namsun Aluminum (008350 KS), Hanil Hyundai Cement (006390 KS) and Binggrae Co Ltd (005180 KS) as the corresponding exclusions.SK Bioscience (302440 KS) is expected to list on the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX) market in March and there is a possibility that the stock gets Fast Entry into the index. That could see Sebang Global Battery (004490 KS) being deleted from the index. Krafton Inc (1486402D KS) is another possible Fast Entry into the index though there are few details available on when the stock is expected to list.The short sell ban in Korea has been extended to 2 May. Stocks that are constituents of the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) and KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) can be short sold from 3 May. The commencement of short selling on these stocks prior to the announcement of the June review changes could result in the expected inclusions outperforming the expected exclusions and opening up other interesting trading strategies.

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: Increasing Number of Potential Changes

The Korea Exchange (KRX) will announce the results of the June 2021 review of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> in May with the changes becoming effective after the close of trading on 10 June.Currently, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taihan-electric-wire-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11551:1" rel="noopener">Taihan Electric Wire (001440 KS)</a> being included in the index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taeyoung-engineering-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18740:1" rel="noopener">Taeyoung Engineering &amp; Construction (009410 KS)</a> being deleted, with a few stocks as close adds/ deletes. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taeyoung-engineering-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18740:1" rel="noopener">Taeyoung Engineering &amp; Construction (009410 KS)</a>'s expected deletion is a result of the demerger of TY Holdings (363280 KS) in September which has significantly lowered its market cap.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krafton-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28956:1" rel="noopener">Krafton Inc (1486402D KS)</a>'s estimated market cap of US$26-30bn would see it included in the index as a Fast Entry if it lists before the end of April which would put <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sebang-global-battery-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9618:1" rel="noopener">Sebang Global Battery (004490 KS)</a> at risk of deletion. If Krafton lists by end January/ beginning February (seems unlikely at this point in time), it could be included in the KOSPI 200 in March. If it lists after mid Feb but before end April, Krafton could be included in the index at the June review.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taihan-electric-wire-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11551:1" rel="noopener">Taihan Electric Wire (001440 KS)</a> has increased in price sharply over the last month and we would wait for the price to stabilize a bit before buying into the stock.

The Korea Exchange (KRX) will announce the results of the June 2021 review of the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) in May with the changes becoming effective after the close of trading on 10 June.Currently, we see Taihan Electric Wire (001440 KS) being included in the index and Taeyoung Engineering &amp; Construction (009410 KS) being deleted, with a few stocks as close adds/ deletes. Taeyoung Engineering &amp; Construction (009410 KS)'s expected deletion is a result of the demerger of TY Holdings (363280 KS) in September which has significantly lowered its market cap.Krafton Inc (1486402D KS)'s estimated market cap of US$26-30bn would see it included in the index as a Fast Entry if it lists before the end of April which would put Sebang Global Battery (004490 KS) at risk of deletion. If Krafton lists by end January/ beginning February (seems unlikely at this point in time), it could be included in the KOSPI 200 in March. If it lists after mid Feb but before end April, Krafton could be included in the index at the June review.Taihan Electric Wire (001440 KS) has increased in price sharply over the last month and we would wait for the price to stabilize a bit before buying into the stock.

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: IPO Fast Entry & End of Short Sell Ban Will Shake Things Up

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
Today (April 29th), South Korea's <a href="https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20200428186100001?input=1195m" target="_blank" rel="noopener">National Assembly Research Service</a> (입법조사처) announced that Kim Yo-Jong could become the next successor after Kim Jong-Un. This is an important announcement since it is really the first major implicit acknowledgment by the South Korean government that there could be a near-term transfer of power from Kim Jong-Un to his sister Kim Yo-Jong.
May could be a key turning point in the Korean markets as the status of KJU is likely to be known to the world.  
</div>The top 10 events impacting the Korean stock market, economy, &amp; politics in April 2020 were as follows:<div><ul>
<li>KIM JONG-UN (DEAD?) </li>
<li>EXCELLENT PROGRESS OF LOWERING COVID-19 IN SOUTH KOREA</li>
<li>POSCO'S MASSIVE SHARE BUYBACK</li>
<li>BLOCK DEAL SALES OF CELLTRION &amp; CELLTRION HEALTHCARE</li>
<li>DOOSAN GROUP RESTRUCTURING </li>
<li>SK E&amp;S BLOCK DEAL OF 10.2% STAKE IN CHINA GAS HOLDINGS </li>
<li>NEXON KOREA RAISES DEBT BY 1.5 TRILLION WON </li>
<li>KURLY RECEIVES $150 MILLION IN INVESTMENT </li>
<li>BINGGRAE ACQUIRES HAITAI'S ICE CREAM BUSINESS </li>
<li>STUDIO DRAGON'S BLOCK DEAL</li>
</ul></div>Among the 33 reports we have written so far in April, the three most widely read insights were all related to Kim Jong-Un:<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kim-jong-un-dead-or-alive" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:38606" rel="noopener">Kim Jong-Un: Dead or Alive?</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/choe-ryong-hae-china-s-man-post-kim-jong-un" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:38737" rel="noopener">Choe Ryong-Hae: China's Man Post Kim Jong-Un?</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-power-struggle-between-kim-yo-jong-vs-kim-pyong-il-in-north-korea" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:38628" rel="noopener">The Power Struggle Between Kim Yo-Jong Vs. Kim Pyong-Il (Post Kim Jong-Un) In North Korea?</a> </li>
</ul>


Today (April 29th), South Korea's National Assembly Research Service (입법조사처) announced that Kim Yo-Jong could become the next successor after Kim Jong-Un. This is an important announcement since it is really the first major implicit acknowledgment by the South Korean government that there could be a near-term transfer of power from Kim Jong-Un to his sister Kim Yo-Jong.
May could be a key turning point in the Korean markets as the status of KJU is likely to be known to the world.  
The top 10 events impacting the Korean stock market, economy, &amp; politics in April 2020 were as follows:
KIM JONG-UN (DEAD?) 
EXCELLENT PROGRESS OF LOWERING COVID-19 IN SOUTH KOREA
POSCO'S MASSIVE SHARE BUYBACK
BLOCK DEAL SALES OF CELLTRION &amp; CELLTRION HEALTHCARE
DOOSAN GROUP RESTRUCTURING 
SK E&amp;S BLOCK DEAL OF 10.2% STAKE IN CHINA GAS HOLDINGS 
NEXON KOREA RAISES DEBT BY 1.5 TRILLION WON 
KURLY RECEIVES $150 MILLION IN INVESTMENT 
BINGGRAE ACQUIRES HAITAI'S ICE CREAM BUSINESS 
STUDIO DRAGON'S BLOCK DEAL
Among the 33 reports we have written so far in April, the three most widely read insights were all related to Kim Jong-Un:

Kim Jong-Un: Dead or Alive? 

Choe Ryong-Hae: China's Man Post Kim Jong-Un? 

The Power Struggle Between Kim Yo-Jong Vs. Kim Pyong-Il (Post Kim Jong-Un) In North Korea? 


Korea Stock Market Monthly Recap #47 (April 2020): Kim Jong-Un Dead?

On 31 March, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/binggrae-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16424:1" rel="noopener">Binggrae Co Ltd (005180 KS)</a> announced that it will acquire 100% of the ice cream business of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitai-confectionery-foods" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22709:1" rel="noopener">Haitai Confectionery &amp; Foods (101530 KS) </a>for 140 billion won. As a result of this acquisition, Binggrae will overtake Lotte Confectionery to become the number one player in the domestic ice cream industry with nearly 40% market share.Haitai Confectionery will use the proceeds from this sale to reduce its debt and further invest in its confectionery and snacks products. This M&amp;A deal appears to be a "win-win" deal for both companies as they can continue to focus on their core business strengths.It appears that the market has a more favorable view on Binggrae following this M&amp;A deal, whose shares have gone limit up (30%) on only 81k volume this morning, which is not materially higher than the trading volume in the past week. So there is a good chance that Binggrae's share price continues to go up sharply tomorrow.  On the other hand, the trading volume for Haitai Confectionery is already at 0.9 million (as of 10:30AM this morning), which is already up sharply versus the past week's levels.

On 31 March, Binggrae Co Ltd (005180 KS) announced that it will acquire 100% of the ice cream business of Haitai Confectionery &amp; Foods (101530 KS) for 140 billion won. As a result of this acquisition, Binggrae will overtake Lotte Confectionery to become the number one player in the domestic ice cream industry with nearly 40% market share.Haitai Confectionery will use the proceeds from this sale to reduce its debt and further invest in its confectionery and snacks products. This M&amp;A deal appears to be a "win-win" deal for both companies as they can continue to focus on their core business strengths.It appears that the market has a more favorable view on Binggrae following this M&amp;A deal, whose shares have gone limit up (30%) on only 81k volume this morning, which is not materially higher than the trading volume in the past week. So there is a good chance that Binggrae's share price continues to go up sharply tomorrow.  On the other hand, the trading volume for Haitai Confectionery is already at 0.9 million (as of 10:30AM this morning), which is already up sharply versus the past week's levels. 

Korea M&A Spotlight: Binggrae Acquires Haitai's Ice Cream Business

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/25993" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25993:1">Lotte Confectionery Co., Ltd. (280360 KS)</a> announced on November 23rd that it will acquire a 100% stake in a leading Indian ice cream maker called Havmor for 164.5 billion won (US$150 million). Havmor Ice Cream was established in 1944 and has more than 70 years of experience in producing ice cream. Havmor is expected to generate about 100 billion won in revenue in 2017. It has the second leading market share in ice cream in the Northwestern portion of India. Havmor has 45 billion won in assets…

Lotte Confectionery Co., Ltd. (280360 KS) announced on November 23rd that it will acquire a 100% stake in a leading Indian ice cream maker called Havmor for 164.5 billion won (US$150 million). Havmor Ice Cream was established in 1944 and has more than 70 years of experience in producing ice cream. Havmor is expected to generate about 100 billion won in revenue in 2017. It has the second leading market share in ice cream in the Northwestern portion of India. Havmor has 45 billion won in assets…

Lotte Confectionery Acquires Havmor Ice Cream in India

South Korea

Binggrae Co., Ltd. manufactures dairy food products.  The Company has cold-storage and frozen divisions.  Bonggrae's main items include Banana Flavoured Milk, yogurts, snacks and various types of ice cream.

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Binggrae Co Ltd (005180 KS)

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: Increasing Number of Potential Changes

We see 4 potential changes to the KOSPI200 index at the June review (up from 1 change in Nov). With the short sell ban expiring on 2 May for...

Brian Freitas

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: IPO Fast Entry & End of Short Sell Ban Will Shake Things Up

We just just one addition and deletion to the KOSPI200 index in the June 2021 review. The end of the short sell ban in March will bring a lot more...

Brian Freitas

Korea Stock Market Monthly Recap #47 (April 2020): Kim Jong-Un Dead?

Today (April 29th), South Korea's National Assembly Research Service (입법조사처) announced that Kim Yo-Jong could become the next successor after Kim...

Douglas Kim

Korea M&A Spotlight: Binggrae Acquires Haitai's Ice Cream Business

On 31 March, Binggrae Co Ltd (005180 KS) announced that it will acquire 100% of the ice cream business of Haitai Confectionery & Foods (101530...

Douglas Kim

Lotte Confectionery Acquires Havmor Ice Cream in India

Lotte Confectionery Co., Ltd. (280360 KS) announced on November 23rd that it will acquire a 100% stake in a leading Indian ice cream maker called...

Douglas Kim

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