Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc-83a27302-cd7d-4e6a-a1de-bcf93eb022c3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32215:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili (9626 HK)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunac-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:240:1" rel="noopener">Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> at the close of trading on 8 July.</li>
<li>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc-83a27302-cd7d-4e6a-a1de-bcf93eb022c3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32215:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili (9626 HK)</a>'s index inclusion is a surprise, the impact from passive fund trading is not a lot. Nothing much one can do on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunac-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:240:1" rel="noopener">Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> will drop 16.12 points at the close on 8 July. Something for traders to watch out for over the next week.</li>
</ul>



Bilibili (9626 HK) will replace Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK) in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) at the close of trading on 8 July.
While Bilibili (9626 HK)'s index inclusion is a surprise, the impact from passive fund trading is not a lot. Nothing much one can do on Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK). 
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) will drop 16.12 points at the close on 8 July. Something for traders to watch out for over the next week.


HSCEI Index Rebalance: Bilibili Replaces Sunac Next Week

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Tencent sold US$3bn worth of SEA shares in Jan 22. The rest of its stake was locked up for six months.</li>
<li>The initial stake sale by Tencent didn’t go down too well and the stock is now trading over 63% below the deal price.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and recent updates.</li>
</ul>


Tencent sold US$3bn worth of SEA shares in Jan 22. The rest of its stake was locked up for six months.
The initial stake sale by Tencent didn’t go down too well and the stock is now trading over 63% below the deal price.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and recent updates.


SEA Lock-Up - Tencent Is once Again About to Be Free to Trim Its US$8bn Stake

<ul>
<li>SenseTime Group (STG) raised US$741m in its Hong Kong IPO in Dec 21. The IPO barely made it through and was priced at the bottom of its IPO price range.</li>
<li>STG is a leading AI software company. STG was the largest AI software company in Asia in terms of 2020 revenue, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S).</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>


SenseTime Group (STG) raised US$741m in its Hong Kong IPO in Dec 21. The IPO barely made it through and was priced at the bottom of its IPO price range.
STG is a leading AI software company. STG was the largest AI software company in Asia in terms of 2020 revenue, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S).
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


SenseTime Lock-Up -Investment Blacklist Will Further Pressurize the Upcoming US$18bn Lock-Up Release

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Bilibili reported 1Q2022 results yesterday. Revenue grew 29.6% YoY to RMB5.1bn (vs consensus RMB5.04bn) while operating losses as a % of revenue increased to 39.4% from 26.4% in 1Q2021.</li>
<li>Monthly Paying Users (MPUs) reached 27.2m vs 20.5m in 1Q2021, however, blended ARPU declined to RMB41.8 from RMB43.4 a year ago suggesting that user growth comes at lower pricing.</li>
<li>Bilibili’s ADS’ closed 15% lower at the end of yesterday’s trading as widening losses and softer guidance for 2Q2022 disappointed the market.</li>
</ul>


Bilibili reported 1Q2022 results yesterday. Revenue grew 29.6% YoY to RMB5.1bn (vs consensus RMB5.04bn) while operating losses as a % of revenue increased to 39.4% from 26.4% in 1Q2021.
Monthly Paying Users (MPUs) reached 27.2m vs 20.5m in 1Q2021, however, blended ARPU declined to RMB41.8 from RMB43.4 a year ago suggesting that user growth comes at lower pricing.
Bilibili’s ADS’ closed 15% lower at the end of yesterday’s trading as widening losses and softer guidance for 2Q2022 disappointed the market.


Bilibili 1Q2022: Widening Losses and There Is Further Downside

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

<ul>
<li>Monthly paying users grew by 33% YoY and monthly active users grew by 31% in 1Q22.</li>
<li>We believe operating loss is not a concern for a fast-growing company.</li>
<li>BILI’s stock price has plunged to about HK$200 from about HK$800 in one year.</li>
</ul>


Monthly paying users grew by 33% YoY and monthly active users grew by 31% in 1Q22.
We believe operating loss is not a concern for a fast-growing company.
BILI’s stock price has plunged to about HK$200 from about HK$800 in one year.


Bilibili (9626 HK): 1Q22, User Bases Growing by 30%, Price Down to 1/4, Buy

China

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services. The Company offers a platform that covers a wide array of genres and media formats, including videos, live broadcasting, mobile games, animation, and comics. Bilibili serves customers in China.

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Bilibili (BILI US)

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Bilibili Replaces Sunac Next Week

Bilibili (9626) replaces Sunac (1918) in the HSCEI at the close on 8 July. Bilibili's inclusion is a surprise but there is little impact of passive...

Brian Freitas

SEA Lock-Up - Tencent Is once Again About to Be Free to Trim Its US$8bn Stake

Tencent sold US$3bn worth of SEA shares in Jan 22. The rest of its stake was locked up for six months, which will soon be over.

Sumeet Singh

SenseTime Lock-Up -Investment Blacklist Will Further Pressurize the Upcoming US$18bn Lock-Up Release

SenseTime Group (STG) raised US$741m in its Hong Kong IPO in Dec 21. The lockup on the pre-IPO and cornerstone investors will expire later this month.

Sumeet Singh

Bilibili 1Q2022: Widening Losses and There Is Further Downside

Though 1Q2022 revenues beat consensus, operating losses further widened to 39.4% of revenues. MPUs increased but at the cost of lower ARPU and the...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Bilibili (9626 HK): 1Q22, User Bases Growing by 30%, Price Down to 1/4, Buy

Monthly paying users grew by 33% YoY and monthly active users grew by 31% in 1Q22. BILI’s stock price has plunged to about HK$200 from about HK$800...

Ming Lu

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