Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>TME’s shares are due to start trading on HKEx tomorrow once it carries out a secondary listing by introduction. The company neither issues new shares nor raise any proceeds.</li>
<li>The company’s earnings growth has started decelerating with having to end exclusive music licensing agreements with WMG, UMG and Sony Music a year ago as part of a SAMR probe.</li>
<li>TME’s 2Q2022 results show recovery in its earnings, however, we would recommend waiting until regulatory crackdown on tech platforms eases off.</li>
</ul>


TME’s shares are due to start trading on HKEx tomorrow once it carries out a secondary listing by introduction. The company neither issues new shares nor raise any proceeds.
The company’s earnings growth has started decelerating with having to end exclusive music licensing agreements with WMG, UMG and Sony Music a year ago as part of a SAMR probe.
TME’s 2Q2022 results show recovery in its earnings, however, we would recommend waiting until regulatory crackdown on tech platforms eases off.


Tencent Music – Earnings Show Recovery but Do Not Rush to Make an Entry

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, a few large Hong Kong IPOs are lining up to launch soon.</li>
<li>Placements picked up this week in Japan and India with most being secondary deals.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, a few large Hong Kong IPOs are lining up to launch soon.
Placements picked up this week in Japan and India with most being secondary deals.


ECM Weekly (12th Sep 2022) - Onewo, CALB, YSB, Medanta, Beneunder, JMDC, SH Holdings, Indigo

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In 2Q22, the revenue growth rate was lower than we expected, especially in the game business.</li>
<li>We believe the May layoff will reduce operating expenses in following quarters.</li>
<li>We set an upside of 8.3% and a price target of HK$197.</li>
</ul>


In 2Q22, the revenue growth rate was lower than we expected, especially in the game business.
We believe the May layoff will reduce operating expenses in following quarters.
We set an upside of 8.3% and a price target of HK$197.


Bilibili (9626 HK): 2Q22, Game Fell, But to Reduce Expense

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There could be up to 6 changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance, mainly driven by the deletions.</li>
<li>If there are six changes to the index, estimated one-way turnover is 6.47% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$4,124m.</li>
<li>There is large short interest on quite a lot of stocks and will play an important role in the rebalance.</li>
</ul>


There could be up to 6 changes to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) at the December rebalance, mainly driven by the deletions.
If there are six changes to the index, estimated one-way turnover is 6.47% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$4,124m.
There is large short interest on quite a lot of stocks and will play an important role in the rebalance.


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Could Be A BIG One

<ul>
<li>In 2Q22, we believe revenue will grow fast, especially for value added service and advertising.</li>
<li>We believe operating loss will shrink, but far from making profit.</li>
<li>We believe the stock has an upside of 18% for the end of 2023.</li>
</ul>


In 2Q22, we believe revenue will grow fast, especially for value added service and advertising.
We believe operating loss will shrink, but far from making profit.
We believe the stock has an upside of 18% for the end of 2023.


Bilibili (9626 HK): 2Q22 Preview, Still Grew Rapidly, Will Reduce Loss

China

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services. The Company offers a platform that covers a wide array of genres and media formats, including videos, live broadcasting, mobile games, animation, and comics. Bilibili serves customers in China.

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Bilibili (9626 HK)

Tencent Music – Earnings Show Recovery but Do Not Rush to Make an Entry

TME's shares are due to start trading on HKEx tomorrow through a secondary listing by introduction. The company's 2Q2022 results show recovery in...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

ECM Weekly (12th Sep 2022) - Onewo, CALB, YSB, Medanta, Beneunder, JMDC, SH Holdings, Indigo

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Bilibili (9626 HK): 2Q22, Game Fell, But to Reduce Expense

In 2Q22, the revenue growth rate was lower than we expected, especially the game business. We believe the May layoff will reduce operating expenses...

Ming Lu

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Could Be A BIG One

There could be up to 6 changes to the HSCEI in December resulting in one-way turnover of 6.47% and in a one-way trade of HK$4,124m. Short interest...

Brian Freitas

Bilibili (9626 HK): 2Q22 Preview, Still Grew Rapidly, Will Reduce Loss

In 2Q22, we believe revenue will grow fast, especially for value added service and advertising. We believe operating loss will shrink, but far from...

Ming Lu

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