Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> succinctly summarised the Trump Tariffs in<a href="https://skr.ma/6dWRS" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Trump Team's Weird Tariff Math - Not Meant to Be Negotiated</a>. Do read his note.</li>
<li>From an arb standpoint, most (all?) NBIOs will likely see a downward revision in pricing. Vote risk should also be reduced.</li>
<li>Such tariffs on predominantly domestic businesses should not trigger material adverse changes (MACs) Down Under. But it is still a worthwhile project to dig a little deeper.  </li>
</ul>



Travis Lundy succinctly summarised the Trump Tariffs in Trump Team's Weird Tariff Math - Not Meant to Be Negotiated. Do read his note.
From an arb standpoint, most (all?) NBIOs will likely see a downward revision in pricing. Vote risk should also be reduced.
Such tariffs on predominantly domestic businesses should not trigger material adverse changes (MACs) Down Under. But it is still a worthwhile project to dig a little deeper.  


<ul>
<li>At a zero net debt zero net cash (securities liquidated) Adjusted Price/Earnings Ratio of 11.3x expected Net Income, the multiple offered <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP)</a> is not a knock-out.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a> investors hoping for a clean (er) exit, or where the back-end terms were clearly defined, will be disappointed. And minorities are active in this name. Avoid</li>
<li>New Trump Tariffs are not based on any actual tariffs, or non-tariff measures. The simple/explicit assumption is that if you run a trade surplus with the US, you are cheating.</li>
</ul>


At a zero net debt zero net cash (securities liquidated) Adjusted Price/Earnings Ratio of 11.3x expected Net Income, the multiple offered Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP) is not a knock-out.

ENN Energy (2688 HK) investors hoping for a clean (er) exit, or where the back-end terms were clearly defined, will be disappointed. And minorities are active in this name. Avoid
New Trump Tariffs are not based on any actual tariffs, or non-tariff measures. The simple/explicit assumption is that if you run a trade surplus with the US, you are cheating.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Makino, ENN Energy, Trump Tariffs, HKBN

<ul>
<li>I tally 54 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Two news new deals discussed this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reject-shop-ltd-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:272:1" rel="noopener">Reject Shop (TRS AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/topcon-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:738:1" rel="noopener">Topcon Corp (7732 JP)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jinke-smart-services-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29214:1" rel="noopener">Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK)</a> also suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. </li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/excalibur-mining-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3088:1" rel="noopener">Dropsuite  (DSE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avjennings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12578:1" rel="noopener">AVJennings Ltd (AVJ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/domain-holdings-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26033:1" rel="noopener">Domain Holdings (DHG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jamco-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14741:1" rel="noopener">Jamco (7408 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-kong-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15351:1" rel="noopener">Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dada-nexus-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28961:1" rel="noopener">Dada Nexus (DADA US)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 54 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Two news new deals discussed this week: Reject Shop (TRS AU) and Topcon Corp (7732 JP). Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK) also suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. 
Key updates/news took place on Dropsuite  (DSE AU), AVJennings Ltd (AVJ AU), Domain Holdings (DHG AU), Jamco (7408 JP), Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT), and Dada Nexus (DADA US).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Topcon, Jinke Smart Services, Dropsuite, Domain, Jamco, Shin Kong, Dada Nexus

<ul>
<li>For the month of March 2025, 13 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$14bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in March was ~53%, with a year-to-date average also of 55%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% .</li>
</ul>


For the month of March 2025, 13 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$14bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in March was ~53%, with a year-to-date average also of 55%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% .


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Mar 2025 Wrap: ENN Energy, Gold Road, Spartan, Aeon Delight, Sinarmas, Topcon

<ul>
<li>Buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hankyu-hanshin-reit-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12654:1" rel="noopener">Hankyu Hanshin REIT, Inc. (8977 JP)</a> on any weakness. There will be strength ahead.</li>
<li>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a> suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code, a third party Offer, as opposed to ENN Group, seems more likely. </li>
<li>Be long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idemitsu-kosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:109:1" rel="noopener">Idemitsu (5019 JP)</a> vs <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eneos-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:638:1" rel="noopener">ENEOS</a> for the next several weeks. Light and easy drift trade based on pressure increasing and pressure ending before new news in May.</li>
</ul>


Buy Hankyu Hanshin REIT, Inc. (8977 JP) on any weakness. There will be strength ahead.
With ENN Energy (2688 HK) suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code, a third party Offer, as opposed to ENN Group, seems more likely. 
Be long Idemitsu (5019 JP) vs ENEOS for the next several weeks. Light and easy drift trade based on pressure increasing and pressure ending before new news in May.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Hankyu Hanshin REIT, ENN Energy, Idemitsu, HKBN, Jardine Matheson

Australia

Bigtincan Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers an artificial intelligence powered sales enabled platform that allows sales and service organizations and their employees to engage with customers. Bigtincan Holdings serve clients worldwide.

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Bigtincan Holdings Ltd (BTH AU)

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