Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Private Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Dunamu operates Upbit which is the largest cryptocurrency exchange in Korea. As of April 2022, Upbit had more than 70% market share in the cryptocurrency trading market in Korea.</li>
<li>Dunamu's sales surged by 1996% to 3.7 trillion won in 2021 and operating profit surged from 86.6 billion won in 2020 to 3.3 trillion won in 2021.</li>
<li>In January 2022, Dunamu was last valued Dunamu at nearly 15 trillion won. However, due to major decline in crypto prices in 2022, Dunamu's valuation has declined significantly. </li>
</ul>


Dunamu operates Upbit which is the largest cryptocurrency exchange in Korea. As of April 2022, Upbit had more than 70% market share in the cryptocurrency trading market in Korea.
Dunamu's sales surged by 1996% to 3.7 trillion won in 2021 and operating profit surged from 86.6 billion won in 2020 to 3.3 trillion won in 2021.
In January 2022, Dunamu was last valued Dunamu at nearly 15 trillion won. However, due to major decline in crypto prices in 2022, Dunamu's valuation has declined significantly. 


Dunamu: Operator of Upbit - The Number One Cryptocurrency Exchange in Korea

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This ETF's AUM has decreased by 20% over the past three months, remaining at ₩120B. It has 22 constituents, and there won't be any addition/deletion at the upcoming rebalancing.</li>
<li>As HYBE's recent share price plunged, we can expect a fairly interesting passive impact from this rebalancing, because its 10% cap reversion is certain to occur despite the price plunge.</li>
<li>CJ ENM (-0.19x ADTV) and Studio Dragon (+0.25x ADTV) are also expected to have a significant passive impact.</li>
</ul>


This ETF's AUM has decreased by 20% over the past three months, remaining at ₩120B. It has 22 constituents, and there won't be any addition/deletion at the upcoming rebalancing.
As HYBE's recent share price plunged, we can expect a fairly interesting passive impact from this rebalancing, because its 10% cap reversion is certain to occur despite the price plunge.
CJ ENM (-0.19x ADTV) and Studio Dragon (+0.25x ADTV) are also expected to have a significant passive impact.


WISE Theme Index "Media Contents" Rebalancing Projections: HYBE, CJ ENM, & Studio Dragon

<ul>
<li>We discuss ways of finding alpha with the end of mandatory lock-up periods data from Korea Securities Depository (KSD) which comes out at the end of each month.</li>
<li>Key companies that are highlighted in this monthly data have been typically underperforming the market much more than the market overall this year.</li>
<li>Among these stocks, some of the big underperformers this year include Kakao Pay (377300 KS), HYBE (352820 KS), WYSIWYG Studios (299900 KS), and DearU (376300 KS).</li>
</ul>


We discuss ways of finding alpha with the end of mandatory lock-up periods data from Korea Securities Depository (KSD) which comes out at the end of each month.
Key companies that are highlighted in this monthly data have been typically underperforming the market much more than the market overall this year.
Among these stocks, some of the big underperformers this year include Kakao Pay (377300 KS), HYBE (352820 KS), WYSIWYG Studios (299900 KS), and DearU (376300 KS).


Finding Alpha with the End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods Data from Korea Securities Depository

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>HYBE announced a major news which was that the BTS group will go on a "temporary break" so that its members could pursue various solo projects.</li>
<li>Rather, we believe the consensus sales and operating profit estimates will decline by 20-40% in 2023 and 2024.</li>
<li>If P/E multiple is lowered to 20x (2024E), this would suggest an implied market cap of 4.8 trillion won or 117,138 won per share, representing a further 39% downside risk. </li>
</ul>


HYBE announced a major news which was that the BTS group will go on a "temporary break" so that its members could pursue various solo projects.
Rather, we believe the consensus sales and operating profit estimates will decline by 20-40% in 2023 and 2024.
If P/E multiple is lowered to 20x (2024E), this would suggest an implied market cap of 4.8 trillion won or 117,138 won per share, representing a further 39% downside risk. 


HYBE: Consensus to Slash Earning Estimates Due to BTS Going on A "Temporary Break" For Solo Projects

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There are 7 adds and 7 deletes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> rebalance to be implemented at the close on 9 June.</li>
<li>There are also a bunch of stocks that will have changes applied to their free float. There were announced last week and are much less tracked.</li>
<li>The flows and impact on some of the float change names are significant and pre-positioning and passive flows could move the stocks over the next few days.</li>
</ul>


There are 7 adds and 7 deletes for the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) rebalance to be implemented at the close on 9 June.
There are also a bunch of stocks that will have changes applied to their free float. There were announced last week and are much less tracked.
The flows and impact on some of the float change names are significant and pre-positioning and passive flows could move the stocks over the next few days.


KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Float Changes, Flows & Trades

South Korea

HYBE Co., Ltd. operates as an entertainment company. The Company provides music production, album distribution, entertainers management, publicity, planning, training, and other services. HYBE also makes television shows.

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HYBE (352820 KS)

Dunamu: Operator of Upbit - The Number One Cryptocurrency Exchange in Korea

Dunamu operates Upbit which is the largest cryptocurrency exchange in Korea. Dunamu's sales surged by 1996% to 3.7 trillion won in 2021 and...

Douglas Kim

WISE Theme Index "Media Contents" Rebalancing Projections: HYBE, CJ ENM, & Studio Dragon

This post projects the upcoming rebalancing of the TIGER Theme ETF "Media Contents": Hybe Co Ltd, CJ ENM, and Studio Dragon.

Sanghyun Park

Finding Alpha with the End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods Data from Korea Securities Depository

We discuss ways of finding alpha with the end of mandatory lock-up periods data from Korea Securities Depository (KSD) which comes out at the end...

Douglas Kim

HYBE: Consensus to Slash Earning Estimates Due to BTS Going on A "Temporary Break" For Solo Projects

HYBE announced a major news which was that the BTS group will go on a "temporary break" so that its members could pursue various solo projects. We...

Douglas Kim

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Float Changes, Flows & Trades

There are significant flows and impact on some stocks that have float changes at the upcoming KOSPI2 rebalance. With over 5 days ADV to buy,...

Brian Freitas

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