Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>JapanConsuming’s retail ranking for FY2017 has now been compiled, and the results show that the retail industry enjoyed another extremely good year in FY2017.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></p>
<p>There are now 79 companies with sales of ¥250 billion or more, including franchise operators and holding companies, and overall sales grew by 4.5%, way ahead of the 1.9% growth in retail sales overall, showing how much the bigger businesses are outperforming the rest of the sector, and how quickly they are eating up market share.</p>
<p>What follows is a comprehensive review of the major developments, focusing on the two key trends of e-commerce and greater group concentration, with an analysis of each of the major format sectors in the ranking.</p>
<p>It’s a long read but provides a complete and concise summary of both winners and losers, and the key trends in the retail sector at the moment.</p>

JapanConsuming’s retail ranking for FY2017 has now been compiled, and the results show that the retail industry enjoyed another extremely good year in FY2017. 
There are now 79 companies with sales of ¥250 billion or more, including franchise operators and holding companies, and overall sales grew by 4.5%, way ahead of the 1.9% growth in retail sales overall, showing how much the bigger businesses are outperforming the rest of the sector, and how quickly they are eating up market share.
What follows is a comprehensive review of the major developments, focusing on the two key trends of e-commerce and greater group concentration, with an analysis of each of the major format sectors in the ranking.
It’s a long read but provides a complete and concise summary of both winners and losers, and the key trends in the retail sector at the moment.

Retail Ranking FY2017-18: Winners and Losers in Japanese Retailing

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Chacko Jacob

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<div class="content-highlight"><p>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18379" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1">Start Today Co Ltd (3092 JP)</a> has been covered extensively by my colleague <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/713" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713">Mio Kato, CFA</a> (click <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/start-today-co-ltd/insights" target="_blank">here</a>), in this report we will focus on the company’s three-year plan and its strategy to increase transaction value at CAGR of 38% between FY17-20.</p></div><h2><strong>Insufficient ECommerce Presence in Mass-Market Fashion Retail Offers Growth Potential</strong></h2><p>Adhering to the strict garbage disposal and recycling rules in place in Japan, cardboard boxes are flattened and neatly arranged outside homes every Monday morning…</p>

While Start Today Co Ltd (3092 JP) has been covered extensively by my colleague Mio Kato, CFA (click here), in this report we will focus on the company’s three-year plan and its strategy to increase transaction value at CAGR of 38% between FY17-20.Insufficient ECommerce Presence in Mass-Market Fashion Retail Offers Growth PotentialAdhering to the strict garbage disposal and recycling rules in place in Japan, cardboard boxes are flattened and neatly arranged outside homes every Monday morning…

Start Today (3092 JP): Calling the Bluff on Forecasted Growth

<div class="content-highlight"><p>While we think BIC Camera is better suited to tap growth compared to its compatriots in the electronic retail sector, the near-50% rise in its stock price over the last year has made it expensive relative to its peers. We do not think the company's forecasted growth for the fiscal period justifies its expensive valuation. Also, the company needs to push the sales of its private brands and attract more tourists to expand margins and buoy revenue in the future. </p></div><h2><strong>Company Background</strong></h2><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11328" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11328:1">Bic Camera Inc</a>…</p>

While we think BIC Camera is better suited to tap growth compared to its compatriots in the electronic retail sector, the near-50% rise in its stock price over the last year has made it expensive relative to its peers. We do not think the company's forecasted growth for the fiscal period justifies its expensive valuation. Also, the company needs to push the sales of its private brands and attract more tourists to expand margins and buoy revenue in the future. Company BackgroundBic Camera Inc…

BIC Camera Scores on Store Locations; Now It Needs To Draw More Tourists To Buoy Revenue Growth

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>We believe the secular mobile payments theme has room to run, and we expect related stocks to continue outperforming... <em>see pages 2-4 for actionable stocks. </em>We reiterate our overweight metals and mining.. <em>see pages 5 and 9-12 for actionable stocks. </em>Though lagging across many global markets, Utilities are particularly attractive in Europe and Japan<em>...</em> <em>see pages 6 and 13-17 for actionable stocks.</em></p>

We believe the secular mobile payments theme has room to run, and we expect related stocks to continue outperforming... see pages 2-4 for actionable stocks. We reiterate our overweight metals and mining.. see pages 5 and 9-12 for actionable stocks. Though lagging across many global markets, Utilities are particularly attractive in Europe and Japan... see pages 6 and 13-17 for actionable stocks.

Global Strategy: Opportunities Within Mobile Payments, Metals & Mining, and Utilities

Pan Pacific International Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13475" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13475:1">Don Quijote Holdings Co Ltd (7532 JP)</a> announced their 3Q results yesterday, posting YoY revenue growth of 18.8% while OP growth remained flat. For the 9MFY18, revenue was up 13.4% YoY at JPY 703bn and OP 7.9% at JPY 40b. While the company has attributed its strong revenue growth to improving macro conditions in the domestic market, it also implied that aggressive marketing strategies had weighed down on margins. Donki's stock price was down 8% at the time of writing this report. We think this is…</p>

Don Quijote Holdings Co Ltd (7532 JP) announced their 3Q results yesterday, posting YoY revenue growth of 18.8% while OP growth remained flat. For the 9MFY18, revenue was up 13.4% YoY at JPY 703bn and OP 7.9% at JPY 40b. While the company has attributed its strong revenue growth to improving macro conditions in the domestic market, it also implied that aggressive marketing strategies had weighed down on margins. Donki's stock price was down 8% at the time of writing this report. We think this is…

Tourism and New Stores Drive Donki's Revenue in 3Q

Japan

BIC CAMERA INC. operates electronic retail stores throughout Japan focusing on the Tokyo metropolitan area.  The Company sells audio and video equipments, electrical home appliances and telecommunication equipments.  Bic Camera also runs an Internet shopping site.

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Bic Camera Inc (3048 JP)

Retail Ranking FY2017-18: Winners and Losers in Japanese Retailing

JapanConsuming’s retail ranking for FY2017 has now been compiled, and the results show that the retail industry enjoyed another extremely good year...

Michael Causton

Start Today (3092 JP): Calling the Bluff on Forecasted Growth

While Start Today Co Ltd (3092 JP) has been covered extensively by my colleague Mio Kato, CFA (click here), in this report we will focus on the...

Chacko Jacob

BIC Camera Scores on Store Locations; Now It Needs To Draw More Tourists To Buoy Revenue Growth

While we think BIC Camera is better suited to tap growth compared to its compatriots in the electronic retail sector, the near-50% rise in its...

Chacko Jacob

Global Strategy: Opportunities Within Mobile Payments, Metals & Mining, and Utilities

We believe the secular mobile payments theme has room to run, and we expect related stocks to continue outperforming... see pages 2-4 for...

Vermilion Research

Tourism and New Stores Drive Donki's Revenue in 3Q

Don Quijote Holdings Co Ltd (7532 JP) announced their 3Q results yesterday, posting YoY revenue growth of 18.8% while OP growth remained flat. For...

Chacko Jacob

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