Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Early 8 August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> announced it had rejected <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a>'s  indicative acquisition proposal at A$25.00/share, after BHP had bought less than 5%.</li>
<li>The Board took a quick look over the weekend and decided "the Indicative Proposal significantly undervalues OZ Minerals" and rejected it out of hand. </li>
<li>It has been an obvious deal for years. This may not be BHP's last go, but they will probably need to pay more like A$30/share to get it. </li>
</ul>


Early 8 August, OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) announced it had rejected BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)'s  indicative acquisition proposal at A$25.00/share, after BHP had bought less than 5%.
The Board took a quick look over the weekend and decided "the Indicative Proposal significantly undervalues OZ Minerals" and rejected it out of hand. 
It has been an obvious deal for years. This may not be BHP's last go, but they will probably need to pay more like A$30/share to get it. 


Oz Minerals Rejects BHP's Opportunistic Foray - Expect More

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> made a non-binding indicative proposal to acquire all shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> at A$25/share and was swiftly rejected.</li>
<li>We feel an offer around the A$28.5-A$29/share range would get the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> Board to open up its books for due diligence.</li>
<li>3.25% of the outstanding shares have been shorted and the stock could trade higher than the BHP offer price. We'd wait for a price around A$25/share to enter.</li>
</ul>



BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) made a non-binding indicative proposal to acquire all shares in OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) at A$25/share and was swiftly rejected.
We feel an offer around the A$28.5-A$29/share range would get the OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) Board to open up its books for due diligence.
3.25% of the outstanding shares have been shorted and the stock could trade higher than the BHP offer price. We'd wait for a price around A$25/share to enter.


OZ Minerals (OZL): BHP Offer Swiftly Rejected

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Australia & New Zealand Bankin / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>ANZ aims to raise around US$2.4bn (A$3.5bn) via a renounceable entitlement offer to part fund the purchase of Suncorp Bank.</li>
<li>In our view, neither the fundraising nor the acquisition appear to be particularly well flagged. ANZ’s withdrawal from MYOB talks might be the most positive thing about the announcement.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


ANZ aims to raise around US$2.4bn (A$3.5bn) via a renounceable entitlement offer to part fund the purchase of Suncorp Bank.
In our view, neither the fundraising nor the acquisition appear to be particularly well flagged. ANZ’s withdrawal from MYOB talks might be the most positive thing about the announcement.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


ANZ Renounceable Entitlement Offer - Dilute Now, Accrete Later. Still Appears Better than MYOB

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Global managers are at their lowest ever allocation in Asian equities.  From a peak of over 17% in 2018, average exposure has fallen to just 12.94%.</li>
<li>Declines were led by China &amp; HK Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services, whilst investors also scaled back exposure to Japan Communication Services, Industrials, Health Care and Consumer Staples</li>
<li>Among Global investors, overweight the benchmark in Asia is by far the non-consensus trade.</li>
</ul>


Global managers are at their lowest ever allocation in Asian equities.  From a peak of over 17% in 2018, average exposure has fallen to just 12.94%.
Declines were led by China &amp; HK Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services, whilst investors also scaled back exposure to Japan Communication Services, Industrials, Health Care and Consumer Staples
Among Global investors, overweight the benchmark in Asia is by far the non-consensus trade.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yancoal-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4145:1" rel="noopener">Yancoal Australia (YAL AU)</a>’s independent board committee unanimously concluded that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yankuang-energy-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:384:1" rel="noopener">Yankuang Energy Group (1171 HK)</a>’s H-Share CBs offer is not in the best interests of Yancoal’s minority shareholders. </li>
<li>Yankuang is open to continuing its discussions with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yancoal-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8427:1" rel="noopener">Yancoal Australia (3668 HK)</a> but maintains that the offer was based on long-term factors including expectations of future coal prices.</li>
<li>Overall, the wording of Yankuang’s response suggests that it is more inclined to bide its time rather than return with a better offer. Required FIRB approval remains an overhang.</li>
</ul>



Yancoal Australia (YAL AU)’s independent board committee unanimously concluded that Yankuang Energy Group (1171 HK)’s H-Share CBs offer is not in the best interests of Yancoal’s minority shareholders. 
Yankuang is open to continuing its discussions with Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) but maintains that the offer was based on long-term factors including expectations of future coal prices.
Overall, the wording of Yankuang’s response suggests that it is more inclined to bide its time rather than return with a better offer. Required FIRB approval remains an overhang.


Yankuang’s Response Suggests that It Rather Wait than Improve Its Offer for Yancoal

Australia

BHP Group Ltd operates as an international resources company. The Company offers mineral exploration and production, including coal, iron ore, gold, titanium, ferroalloys, nickel, and copper concentrate, as well as petroleum exploration, production, and refining. BHP Group serves customers worldwide.

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BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)

Oz Minerals Rejects BHP's Opportunistic Foray - Expect More

BHP has lobbed an opportunistic offer for OZ Minerals for its "future-facing commodity assets. Not surprising. And it IS opportunistic. Both BHP...

Travis Lundy

OZ Minerals (OZL): BHP Offer Swiftly Rejected

BHP's offer to acquire all shares in OZL at A$25/share (32% premium to last close) was rejected. There should be a higher offer coming in and could...

Brian Freitas

ANZ Renounceable Entitlement Offer - Dilute Now, Accrete Later. Still Appears Better than MYOB

ANZ aims to raise around US$2.4bn (A$3.5bn) via a renounceable entitlement offer to part fund the purchase of Suncorp Bank.

Sumeet Singh

Asia: Global Investors Lose Faith

Global managers are at their lowest ever allocation in Asian equities. From a peak of over 17% in 2018, average exposure has fallen to just 12.94%.

Steven Holden

Yankuang’s Response Suggests that It Rather Wait than Improve Its Offer for Yancoal

Yancoal unsurprisingly batted away Yankuang's low-ball offer. The wording in Yankuang's response suggests that it is unlikely to offer improved...

Arun George

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