Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After nearly 3 months of no talks and movement, then a flurry of both, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> have an agreed Revised Proposal.</li>
<li>OZ Minerals Board has agreed to support the Revised Proposal at A$28.25/share, a 13% bump, subject to due diligence provided on an exclusive basis for four weeks.</li>
<li>A fully-franked dividend or capital return will be allowed (Scheme price to be adjusted). This will probably trade tight. One owns a call option on copper for probably 3-4 months.</li>
</ul>


After nearly 3 months of no talks and movement, then a flurry of both, BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) and OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) have an agreed Revised Proposal.
OZ Minerals Board has agreed to support the Revised Proposal at A$28.25/share, a 13% bump, subject to due diligence provided on an exclusive basis for four weeks.
A fully-franked dividend or capital return will be allowed (Scheme price to be adjusted). This will probably trade tight. One owns a call option on copper for probably 3-4 months.


OZ Minerals (OZL AU) And BHP Have a Deal - Investors Have an OTM Option on Copper

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group</a> has made a revised conditional, non-binding and indicative proposal to acquire all shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> at A$28.25/share, 13% higher than its earlier offer.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals</a> Board has agreed to give <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> exclusive due diligence access for 4 weeks and intends to unanimously recommend the revised proposal.</li>
<li>Barring a competing proposal, this is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group</a>'s best and final price - expect the stock to trade close to A$28/share today.</li>
</ul>



BHP Group has made a revised conditional, non-binding and indicative proposal to acquire all shares in OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) at A$28.25/share, 13% higher than its earlier offer.
The OZ Minerals Board has agreed to give BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) exclusive due diligence access for 4 weeks and intends to unanimously recommend the revised proposal.
Barring a competing proposal, this is BHP Group's best and final price - expect the stock to trade close to A$28/share today.


OZ Minerals (OZL AU): BHP Ups Offer by 13%; This Should Get Done

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>This past week the news was dominated by political midterm election results and a brewing crypto market implosion but also featured a late week rally after a surprising CPI inflation print which beat estimates on Thursday.</li><li>While pundits can posit various reasons for Thursday and Friday’s market rallies, there appears to be at least a few brewing catalysts that could carry positive momentum into 2023 which include 1) continued downside surprises in either CPI or PCE inflation data which would allow the Fed to back off its aggressive tightening campaign 2) steps leading to Chinese economy reopening reducing existing supply chain bottlenecks 3) steps leading to a ceasefire or peace agreement in Ukraine and 4) significant improvement in EU energy security situation resulting in lower EU inflation.</li><li>In the near term, it appears as of this writing that political gridlock in Washington D.C. will be upon us for the next 2 years removing the worst case scenarios of any significant market-negative legislation (i.e. tax hikes, etc.) being passed.</li></ul>

This past week the news was dominated by political midterm election results and a brewing crypto market implosion but also featured a late week rally after a surprising CPI inflation print which beat estimates on Thursday.While pundits can posit various reasons for Thursday and Friday’s market rallies, there appears to be at least a few brewing catalysts that could carry positive momentum into 2023 which include 1) continued downside surprises in either CPI or PCE inflation data which would allow the Fed to back off its aggressive tightening campaign 2) steps leading to Chinese economy reopening reducing existing supply chain bottlenecks 3) steps leading to a ceasefire or peace agreement in Ukraine and 4) significant improvement in EU energy security situation resulting in lower EU inflation.In the near term, it appears as of this writing that political gridlock in Washington D.C. will be upon us for the next 2 years removing the worst case scenarios of any significant market-negative legislation (i.e. tax hikes, etc.) being passed.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-aviation-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20401:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21-vianet-group-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8489:1" rel="noopener">21Vianet Group (VNET US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>.</li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tyro-payments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28393:1" rel="noopener">Tyro Payments (TYR AU)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-vast-industrial-urban-development-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3212:1" rel="noopener">China Vast Industrial Urban Development (6166 HK)</a>, Moya Holdings.</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads  Pendal Group (PDL AU), Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU), 21Vianet Group (VNET US), 111 Inc (YI US), Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP).
Lowest spreads - Tyro Payments (TYR AU),Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU), OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU), Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), China Vast Industrial Urban Development (6166 HK), Moya Holdings.


Merger Arb Mondays (14 Nov) - Golden Energy, Perpetual/Pendal, Origin Energy, Warrego, Uzabase

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> will eliminate its ADS program. This is another potentially juicy trade. </li>
<li>Canada's Brookfield, along with EIG look to take over <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, one of Australia's largest energy companies.</li>
<li>This <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> trade is fundamentally a bit short gamma on copper. If copper takes another dive, then it may no longer be interesting to be long. </li>
</ul>



Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) will eliminate its ADS program. This is another potentially juicy trade. 
Canada's Brookfield, along with EIG look to take over Origin Energy (ORG AU), one of Australia's largest energy companies.
This OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) trade is fundamentally a bit short gamma on copper. If copper takes another dive, then it may no longer be interesting to be long. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Tata Motors, Origin Energy, OZ Minerals, Toshiba

Australia

BHP Group Ltd operates as an international resources company. The Company offers mineral exploration and production, including coal, iron ore, gold, titanium, ferroalloys, nickel, and copper concentrate, as well as petroleum exploration, production, and refining. BHP Group serves customers worldwide.

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BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)

OZ Minerals (OZL AU) And BHP Have a Deal - Investors Have an OTM Option on Copper

BHP + OZL have agreed a Revised Proposal at A$28.25, lower than I expected. There is still copper optionality but BHP did well. May trade a bit...

Travis Lundy

OZ Minerals (OZL AU): BHP Ups Offer by 13%; This Should Get Done

BHP has increased its offer for OZL by 13% & got due diligence access. Barring a competing proposal, this is BHP's best offer. We expect the deal...

Brian Freitas

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 11/14

This past week the news was dominated by political midterm election results and a brewing crypto market implosion but also featured a late week...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Merger Arb Mondays (14 Nov) - Golden Energy, Perpetual/Pendal, Origin Energy, Warrego, Uzabase

This week, the highest gross spreads are Pendal (57.5%), Alliance Aviation (54.2%), Genex (47.1%), VNET (46.2%), 111 (28.0%), Golden Energy...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Tata Motors, Origin Energy, OZ Minerals, Toshiba

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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